Week 11 in NorCal GU14: what changed

Sat Oct 24

• Cal Magic (4th) 5–0 (22nd) San Francisco Elite Academy

Sun Oct 25

• Monterey Surf (3rd) 7–1 (23rd) Livermore Fusion SC
• Association FC (25th) 0–3 (7th) Walnut Creek Surf
• El Camino FC Salinas (13th) 5–4 (6th) Palo Alto SC
• SF United FC (17th) 1–4 (12th) North Coast FC BLUE
• Los Gatos United Soccer Club (20th) 2–2 (26th) Solano Surf
• Rocklin FC (1st) 9–0 (21st) Santa Cruz United FC
• Eastshore Alliance FC (27th) 1–6 (24th) San Ramon FC
• Santa Clara Sporting (5th) 4–1 (16th) Stanford Strikers
• San Francisco Elite Academy (22nd) 4–5 (8th) Elk Grove Soccer
• Alameda Soccer Club Islanders (11th) 1–2 (10th) Burlingame SC
• South Valley United Soccer Club (2nd) 2–2 (19th) Folsom Lake Surf
• Reno APEX Soccer Club (14th) 2–1 (15th) Napa United

Positions are the table re-sorted after the last game of each week. Odds come from the nightly forecast snapshot nearest each end of the week; a dash means no snapshot exists yet.

• El Camino FC Salinas 5–4 Palo Alto SC 20% likely
  Sun Oct 25 · model favoured Palo Alto SC
• Alameda Soccer Club Islanders 1–2 Burlingame SC 29% likely
  Sun Oct 25 · model favoured Alameda Soccer Club Islanders

How likely each result was by today's ratings.

1. AC Marin (9th) vs Monterey Surf (3rd) Sun Nov 1
   31% · 24% · 45% — KEY GAME toss-up, zone race on the line
2. Santa Clara Sporting (5th) vs Burlingame SC (10th) Sun Nov 1
   61% · 18% · 21% — KEY GAME zone race on the line
3. Elk Grove Soccer (8th) vs Folsom Lake Surf (19th) Sun Nov 1
   54% · 18% · 29% — KEY GAME toss-up
4. San Ramon FC (24th) vs Walnut Creek Surf (7th) Sun Nov 1
   11% · 16% · 73% — KEY GAME form check
5. Diablo Valley Futbol Club (28th) vs Eastshore Alliance FC (27th) Sun Nov 1
   27% · 24% · 50% — KEY GAME toss-up, neighbours in the table

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