FC Stars Blue

ECNL Regional League Girls · New England GU13 · 9 teams · FC Stars (all teams)

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3rd

3-1-1 record · 5 played

2.00 points per game

+3 goal diff · 6–3

WWLDWlast 5

82% chance of top 4 · expected finish 3.9

-0.38 schedule faced · avg opponent rating

Next game — Sat Oct 24, 03:00 PM

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FC Stars Blue
3rd · 2.00 PPG

Select South
1st · 3.00 PPG

FC Stars Soccer Complex, Field 1 ↗

20% 29% 50%

windrawloss

●●●●● Very tough to win

Most likely score 0–1 (expected goals 0.7 for, 1.3 against · 0.91 expected points)

Season so far	FC Stars Blue	Select South
Position	3rd	1st
Record (W-D-L)	3-1-1	4-0-0
Points per game	2.00	3.00
Goals for / game	1.2	2.3
Goals against / game	0.6	0.3
Clean sheets	3	3
Held scoreless	2	0
Form (recent first)	W D L W W	W W W W
Biggest win	2–0 vs FSA FC	4–0 vs Scorpions SC
Worst loss	0–2 at SUSA FC	—
Model rating (net goals vs avg)	+0.28	+1.06
Schedule faced (avg opp. rating)	-0.38	-0.20

Common opponents: Scorpions SC — we 2–1; they 4–0. SUSA FC — we 0–2; they 2–1. East Meadow Soccer Club — we 0–0; they 1–0. FC Stars White — we 2–0; they 2–0.

Game plan

Respect their attack
Select South score 2.2/game — well above the league's 0.9.
Deny the easy goals first: compact shape between the lines, no fouls in shooting range, and a plan for their best outlet. Score first and make them chase.
Hard to break down
Select South concede only 0.2/game with 3 clean sheet(s).
Patience and width: move the ball quickly side to side to pull the block apart, and treat set pieces as your best chance — rehearse two corner routines and a near-post free-kick delivery.
Finishing wins the tight ones
Held scoreless 2 time(s): 0–2 at SUSA FC, 0–0 at East Meadow Soccer Club.
Against a low block, the first goal usually comes from a cross or a cut-back, not a dribble. Get 2–3 bodies in the box on every wide entry and finish practice this week at game speed.
Underdog — play free, stay organised
Model gives 20%; a draw (29%) would be a good result.
Keep the shape compact, make them play in front of you, and hit space behind their full-backs on transitions. A point here is a win for the table; a win is a season-changer.
They arrive in form
Select South have won 4 straight.
Don't let them settle: deny the first 10 minutes of rhythm with pressure on their first pass out of the back.

If Saturday goes…

Where we'd sit after the Select South game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (FC Stars Blue – Select South) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 4 other games that week (Mon Oct 19 – Sun Oct 25); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.

Our result	Rivals don't play	Likely results	Every rival wins
– Loss · 1.67 PPG	4th▼ down 1	4th▼ down 1	5th▼ down 2
Win 2.17 PPG	3rd— holds	3rd— holds	3rd— holds
Draw 1.83 PPG	3rd— holds	4th▼ down 1	5th▼ down 2
Loss 1.67 PPG	4th▼ down 1	4th▼ down 1	5th▼ down 2

Can we move up this round? No. With a 0–1 loss we stay 3rd even if every rival loses, and as low as 5th if every rival wins.

Where we finish

2,000 simulated seasons

1% finish 1st

82% top 4

18% below the top 4

3.9 average finish

1st 1%
2nd 4%
3rd 19%
4th 59%
5th 15%
6th 3%
7th <1%
8th
9th

Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.

Climbing the table

What it takes to pass each team above us, from our 11 remaining known games (max 2.69 PPG if we win out).

#	Team	PPG	Proj.	To pass them
1	Select South	3.00 (+1.00)	1st (2.34)	38 of 33 pts to pass their current pace, 28 for their projection
2	World Class FC	3.00 (+1.00)	2nd (2.30)	38 of 33 pts to pass their current pace, 27 for their projection

How the results connect

15 chains · 6 teams

Paths of results that link FC Stars Blue to Select South through teams both have faced, drawn as one map. Teams sit in columns by how many games away from us they are. Each arrow is one game, pointing away from us, and its colour is the result for the team it starts from. Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain and see its net goal margin.

1 favour us

2 even

12 favour them

-1.8 goals per chain on average. The results point their way.

won lost drew· result for the team the arrow starts from

Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain, or step through them with the arrows. Open full screen and turn your phone to see the whole map.

12 chains

Position over the season

9 game days

The table re-sorted after each date on which a game was played. Shaded band is the top 4.

The path

run-in difficulty +0.10 · 1st hardest of 9

Date	Opponent	Where	Difficulty	Win	Likely	Exp. pts	Run. PPG	Priority
Sat Oct 24 03:00 PM	Select South 1st · 4-0-0 · GD +8	Home FC Stars Soccer Complex	●●●●● Very tough	20%	0–1	0.91	1.82	Upside
Sat Nov 7 TBD	World Class FC 2nd · 4-0-0 · GD +7	Away	●●●●● Very tough	15%	0–1	0.75	1.67	Upside
Sun Nov 8 12:00 PM	Connecticut FC United 8th · 0-0-1 · GD -2	Away far trip CFC Park	●●●○○ Toss-up	49%	1–0	1.79	1.68	Swing game
Sat Feb 27 TBD	FC Stars White 5th · 3-0-3 · GD -1	Home	●●●○○ Toss-up	51%	1–0	1.81	1.69	Swing game
Sat Mar 6 TBD	Scorpions SC 7th · 0-1-4 · GD -8	Away	●●○○○ Lean win	63%	1–0	2.13	1.74	Swing game
Sun Mar 7 TBD	Select South 1st · 4-0-0 · GD +8	Away	●●●●● Very tough	16%	0–1	0.74	1.65	Upside
Sat Mar 20 TBD	SUSA FC 4th · 3-0-2 · GD +4	Home	●●●●○ Tough	30%	0–0	1.22	1.61	Upside
Sun Mar 21 TBD	East Meadow Soccer Club 6th · 0-2-3 · GD -3	Home	●●●○○ Toss-up	47%	0–0	1.81	1.63	Swing game
Sat Apr 17 TBD	Connecticut FC United 8th · 0-0-1 · GD -2	Home	●●●○○ Toss-up	57%	1–0	1.97	1.65	Swing game
Sun Apr 18 TBD	World Class FC 2nd · 4-0-0 · GD +7	Home	●●●●● Very tough	19%	0–1	0.89	1.60	Upside
Sun Apr 25 08:30 AM	FSA FC 9th · 0-0-3 · GD -8	Away far trip FSA-Farmington Sports Arena	●●○○○ Lean win	70%	1–0	2.31	1.65	Bank it

"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.

Standings

Team

Pts

PPG

Form

SoS

Run-in

Top 4

Exp. finish

Select South

3.00

WWWW

-0.20

-0.13

100%

1.6

W	Sun Oct 18	vs	East Meadow Soccer Club (6th)	1–0
W	Sat Oct 17	vs	SUSA FC (4th)	2–1
W	Wed Oct 7	vs	Scorpions SC (7th)	4–0
W	Sat Sep 12	at	FC Stars White (5th)	2–0

Next: Sat Sep 26 vs World Class FC · Sat Oct 24 at FC Stars Blue · Sat Oct 31 at Scorpions SC See all 12 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Sep 26 (no score yet)	vs	World Class FC (2nd)	0–0	34%
·	Sat Oct 24	at	FC Stars Blue (3rd)	1–0	50%
·	Sat Oct 31	at	Scorpions SC (7th)	2–0	83%
·	Sun Nov 15	vs	Connecticut FC United (8th)	2–0	78%
·	Sat Mar 6	vs	FC Stars White (5th)	2–0	73%
·	Sun Mar 7	vs	FC Stars Blue (3rd)	1–0	57%
·	Sat Mar 13	at	FSA FC (9th)	2–0	88%
·	Sat Mar 20	at	World Class FC (2nd)	0–0	28%
·	Sun Mar 21	at	Connecticut FC United (8th)	1–0	71%
·	Sat Mar 27	vs	FSA FC (9th)	3–0	92%
·	Sat Apr 17	at	SUSA FC (4th)	1–0	43%
·	Sun Apr 18	at	East Meadow Soccer Club (6th)	1–0	60%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

World Class FC

3.00

WWWW

-0.38

-0.06

100%

1.7

W	Sat Oct 17	vs	FSA FC (9th)	3–0
W	Sat Oct 3	at	Connecticut FC United (8th)	2–0
W	Sat Sep 19	vs	East Meadow Soccer Club (6th)	1–0
W	Sun Sep 13	vs	SUSA FC (4th)	1–0

Next: Sat Sep 26 at Select South · Sat Nov 7 vs FC Stars Blue · Sun Nov 8 vs FC Stars White See all 12 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Sep 26 (no score yet)	at	Select South (1st)	0–0	31%
·	Sat Nov 7	vs	FC Stars Blue (3rd)	1–0	54%
·	Sun Nov 8	vs	FC Stars White (5th)	1–0	70%
·	Sun Nov 15	at	Scorpions SC (7th)	2–0	79%
·	Sat Mar 20	vs	Select South (1st)	0–0	38%
·	Sun Mar 21	vs	Scorpions SC (7th)	2–0	84%
·	Sat Apr 10	at	East Meadow Soccer Club (6th)	0–0	54%
·	Sat Apr 17	at	FC Stars White (5th)	1–0	63%
·	Sun Apr 18	at	FC Stars Blue (3rd)	1–0	48%
·	Sat Apr 24	at	SUSA FC (4th)	0–0	41%
·	Sun Apr 25	vs	Connecticut FC United (8th)	1–0	74%
·	Sat May 15	at	FSA FC (9th)	2–0	84%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

FC Stars Blue

2.00

WWLDW

-0.38

+0.10

82%

3.9

W	Sat Oct 17	at	FC Stars White (5th)	2–0
D	Sun Oct 4	at	East Meadow Soccer Club (6th)	0–0
L	Sat Oct 3	at	SUSA FC (4th)	0–2
W	Sun Sep 20	vs	Scorpions SC (7th)	2–1
W	Sat Sep 19	vs	FSA FC (9th)	2–0

Next: Sat Oct 24 vs Select South · Sat Nov 7 at World Class FC · Sun Nov 8 at Connecticut FC United See all 11 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 24	vs	Select South (1st)	0–1	20%
·	Sat Nov 7	at	World Class FC (2nd)	0–1	15%
·	Sun Nov 8	at	Connecticut FC United (8th)	1–0	49%
·	Sat Feb 27	vs	FC Stars White (5th)	1–0	51%
·	Sat Mar 6	at	Scorpions SC (7th)	1–0	63%
·	Sun Mar 7	at	Select South (1st)	0–1	16%
·	Sat Mar 20	vs	SUSA FC (4th)	0–0	30%
·	Sun Mar 21	vs	East Meadow Soccer Club (6th)	0–0	47%
·	Sat Apr 17	vs	Connecticut FC United (8th)	1–0	57%
·	Sun Apr 18	vs	World Class FC (2nd)	0–1	19%
·	Sun Apr 25	at	FSA FC (9th)	1–0	70%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

SUSA FC

1.80

LWWLW

+0.22

-0.24

97%

3.1

W	Sun Oct 18	at	Scorpions SC (7th)	2–0
L	Sat Oct 17	at	Select South (1st)	1–2
W	Sun Oct 4	vs	FC Stars White (5th)	2–0
W	Sat Oct 3	vs	FC Stars Blue (3rd)	2–0
L	Sun Sep 13	at	World Class FC (2nd)	0–1

Next: Sat Oct 24 vs Connecticut FC United · Sun Oct 25 vs FSA FC · Sun Nov 1 vs East Meadow Soccer Club See all 11 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 24	vs	Connecticut FC United (8th)	1–0	65%
·	Sun Oct 25	vs	FSA FC (9th)	2–0	83%
·	Sun Nov 1	vs	East Meadow Soccer Club (6th)	0–0	54%
·	Sun Nov 15	at	FSA FC (9th)	2–0	78%
·	Sat Mar 20	at	FC Stars Blue (3rd)	0–0	37%
·	Sun Mar 21	at	FC Stars White (5th)	1–0	52%
·	Sat Apr 10	at	Connecticut FC United (8th)	1–0	58%
·	Sat Apr 17	vs	Select South (1st)	0–1	27%
·	Sun Apr 18	vs	Scorpions SC (7th)	2–0	78%
·	Sat Apr 24	vs	World Class FC (2nd)	0–0	24%
·	Sat May 1	at	East Meadow Soccer Club (6th)	0–0	48%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

FC Stars White

-1

1.50

WWWLL

-0.08

+0.05

17%

5.1

L	Sat Oct 17	vs	FC Stars Blue (3rd)	0–2
L	Sun Oct 4	at	SUSA FC (4th)	0–2
W	Sat Oct 3	at	East Meadow Soccer Club (6th)	1–0
W	Sun Sep 20	vs	FSA FC (9th)	3–0
W	Sat Sep 19	vs	Scorpions SC (7th)	2–1
L	Sat Sep 12	vs	Select South (1st)	0–2

Next: Sat Nov 7 at Connecticut FC United · Sun Nov 8 at World Class FC · Sat Feb 27 at FC Stars Blue See all 10 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Nov 7	at	Connecticut FC United (8th)	1–0	39%
·	Sun Nov 8	at	World Class FC (2nd)	0–1	9%
·	Sat Feb 27	at	FC Stars Blue (3rd)	0–1	21%
·	Sat Mar 6	at	Select South (1st)	0–2	9%
·	Sun Mar 7	at	Scorpions SC (7th)	1–0	53%
·	Sat Mar 20	vs	East Meadow Soccer Club (6th)	0–0	40%
·	Sun Mar 21	vs	SUSA FC (4th)	0–1	20%
·	Sat Apr 17	vs	World Class FC (2nd)	0–1	12%
·	Sun Apr 18	vs	Connecticut FC United (8th)	1–0	46%
·	Sun May 16	at	FSA FC (9th)	1–0	61%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

East Meadow Soccer Club

-3

0.40

LLDDL

+0.23

-0.08

6.9

L	Sun Oct 18	at	Select South (1st)	0–1
D	Sat Oct 17	at	Scorpions SC (7th)	0–0
D	Sun Oct 4	vs	FC Stars Blue (3rd)	0–0
L	Sat Oct 3	vs	FC Stars White (5th)	0–1
L	Sat Sep 19	at	World Class FC (2nd)	0–1

Next: Sat Oct 24 vs FSA FC · Sun Oct 25 vs Connecticut FC United · Sun Nov 1 at SUSA FC See all 11 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 24	vs	FSA FC (9th)	0–0	40%
·	Sun Oct 25	vs	Connecticut FC United (8th)	0–0	25%
·	Sun Nov 1	at	SUSA FC (4th)	0–0	9%
·	Sat Nov 14	at	FSA FC (9th)	0–0	35%
·	Sat Mar 20	at	FC Stars White (5th)	0–0	18%
·	Sun Mar 21	at	FC Stars Blue (3rd)	0–0	12%
·	Sat Apr 10	vs	World Class FC (2nd)	0–0	7%
·	Sat Apr 17	vs	Scorpions SC (7th)	0–0	34%
·	Sun Apr 18	vs	Select South (1st)	0–1	8%
·	Sat Apr 24	at	Connecticut FC United (8th)	0–0	21%
·	Sat May 1	vs	SUSA FC (4th)	0–0	12%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Scorpions SC

-8

0.20

LLLDL

+0.29

+0.01

7.9

L	Sun Oct 18	vs	SUSA FC (4th)	0–2
D	Sat Oct 17	vs	East Meadow Soccer Club (6th)	0–0
L	Wed Oct 7	at	Select South (1st)	0–4
L	Sun Sep 20	at	FC Stars Blue (3rd)	1–2
L	Sat Sep 19	at	FC Stars White (5th)	1–2

Next: Sat Oct 31 vs Select South · Sat Nov 14 vs Connecticut FC United · Sun Nov 15 vs World Class FC See all 11 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 31	vs	Select South (1st)	0–2	4%
·	Sat Nov 14	vs	Connecticut FC United (8th)	0–1	27%
·	Sun Nov 15	vs	World Class FC (2nd)	0–2	5%
·	Sat Mar 6	vs	FC Stars Blue (3rd)	0–1	13%
·	Sun Mar 7	vs	FC Stars White (5th)	0–1	21%
·	Sat Mar 20	at	Connecticut FC United (8th)	0–1	21%
·	Sun Mar 21	at	World Class FC (2nd)	0–2	3%
·	Sun Apr 11	vs	FSA FC (9th)	1–0	47%
·	Sat Apr 17	at	East Meadow Soccer Club (6th)	0–0	21%
·	Sun Apr 18	at	SUSA FC (4th)	0–2	6%
·	Sat May 1	at	FSA FC (9th)	1–0	40%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Connecticut FC United

-2

0.00

+0.92

-0.03

6.2

Sat Oct 3

World Class FC (2nd)

0–2

Next: Sat Oct 24 at SUSA FC · Sun Oct 25 at East Meadow Soccer Club · Sat Oct 31 at FSA FC See all 15 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 24	at	SUSA FC (4th)	0–1	11%
·	Sun Oct 25	at	East Meadow Soccer Club (6th)	0–0	28%
·	Sat Oct 31	at	FSA FC (9th)	1–0	51%
·	Sat Nov 7	vs	FC Stars White (5th)	0–1	31%
·	Sun Nov 8	vs	FC Stars Blue (3rd)	0–1	20%
·	Sat Nov 14	at	Scorpions SC (7th)	1–0	43%
·	Sun Nov 15	at	Select South (1st)	0–2	6%
·	Sat Mar 20	vs	Scorpions SC (7th)	1–0	50%
·	Sun Mar 21	vs	Select South (1st)	0–1	9%
·	Sat Apr 10	vs	SUSA FC (4th)	0–1	15%
·	Sat Apr 17	at	FC Stars Blue (3rd)	0–1	16%
·	Sun Apr 18	at	FC Stars White (5th)	0–1	25%
·	Sat Apr 24	vs	East Meadow Soccer Club (6th)	0–0	33%
·	Sun Apr 25	at	World Class FC (2nd)	0–1	6%
·	Sat May 22	vs	FSA FC (9th)	1–0	58%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

FSA FC

-8

0.00

LLL

+0.37

+0.08

8.5

L	Sat Oct 17	at	World Class FC (2nd)	0–3
L	Sun Sep 20	at	FC Stars White (5th)	0–3
L	Sat Sep 19	at	FC Stars Blue (3rd)	0–2

Next: Sat Oct 24 at East Meadow Soccer Club · Sun Oct 25 at SUSA FC · Sat Oct 31 vs Connecticut FC United See all 13 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 24	at	East Meadow Soccer Club (6th)	0–0	16%
·	Sun Oct 25	at	SUSA FC (4th)	0–2	4%
·	Sat Oct 31	vs	Connecticut FC United (8th)	0–1	20%
·	Sat Nov 14	vs	East Meadow Soccer Club (6th)	0–0	20%
·	Sun Nov 15	vs	SUSA FC (4th)	0–2	6%
·	Sat Mar 13	vs	Select South (1st)	0–2	3%
·	Sat Mar 27	at	Select South (1st)	0–3	2%
·	Sun Apr 11	at	Scorpions SC (7th)	0–1	24%
·	Sun Apr 25	vs	FC Stars Blue (3rd)	0–1	9%
·	Sat May 1	vs	Scorpions SC (7th)	0–1	30%
·	Sat May 15	vs	World Class FC (2nd)	0–2	3%
·	Sun May 16	vs	FC Stars White (5th)	0–1	15%
·	Sat May 22	at	Connecticut FC United (8th)	0–1	15%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.

How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (0.95 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.