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Colorado Storm Central

ECNL Regional League Girls · Mountain GU15 · 19 teams · Colorado Storm (all teams)

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2nd
7-2-1 record · 10 played
2.30 points per game
+21 goal diff · 32–11
WWLWDlast 5
90% chance of top 4 · expected finish 3.0
-0.70 schedule faced · avg opponent rating

Next game — Sat Oct 31, 10:00 AM

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Colorado Storm Central
2nd · 2.30 PPG
at
Pride SC
1st · 3.00 PPG

Pride Soccer Complex, Field 2 ↗ far trip

windrawloss

●●●●● Very tough to win

Most likely score 1–2 (expected goals 1.6 for, 2.9 against · 0.72 expected points)

Season so farColorado Storm CentralPride SC
Position2nd1st
Record (W-D-L)7-2-19-0-0
Points per game2.303.00
Goals for / game3.25.1
Goals against / game1.10.9
Clean sheets23
Held scoreless00
Form (recent first)D W L W WW W W W W
Biggest win6–1 vs Colorado Storm North14–1 vs Colorado Storm North
Worst loss2–3 at Colorado Storm South—
Model rating (net goals vs avg)+1.32+2.74
Schedule faced (avg opp. rating)-0.70-0.63

Common opponents: Colorado Rush — we 1–1, 3–1; they 5–0. Colorado Storm North — we 6–1, 4–0; they 14–1. Colorado EDGE — we 6–1, 1–0; they 3–0, 2–1. Real Colorado Olympico — we 3–1; they 5–0, 5–2. Colorado Storm South — we 2–3; they 3–1.

Game plan

  • Respect their attack
    Pride SC score 5.1/game — well above the league's 2.2.

    Deny the easy goals first: compact shape between the lines, no fouls in shooting range, and a plan for their best outlet. Score first and make them chase.

  • Hard to break down
    Pride SC concede only 0.9/game with 3 clean sheet(s).

    Patience and width: move the ball quickly side to side to pull the block apart, and treat set pieces as your best chance — rehearse two corner routines and a near-post free-kick delivery.

  • Underdog — play free, stay organised
    Model gives 19%; a draw (16%) would be a good result.

    Keep the shape compact, make them play in front of you, and hit space behind their full-backs on transitions. A point here is a win for the table; a win is a season-changer.

  • They arrive in form
    Pride SC have won 9 straight.

    Don't let them settle: deny the first 10 minutes of rhythm with pressure on their first pass out of the back.

  • Away game
    Kickoff 10:00 AM at Pride Soccer Complex.

    Arrive 75 minutes early to see the surface and goal size; plan a longer dynamic warm-up after a drive. Away wins are worth the same 3 points — keep the routine identical to home.

If Saturday goes…

Where we'd sit after the Pride SC game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (Colorado Storm Central – Pride SC) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 4 other games that week (Mon Oct 26 – Sun Nov 1); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.

Our resultRivals don't playLikely resultsEvery rival wins
–
Loss · 2.09 PPG
4th▼ down 2 3rd▼ down 1 4th▼ down 2
Win
2.36 PPG
2nd— holds 2nd— holds 2nd— holds
Draw
2.18 PPG
4th▼ down 2 3rd▼ down 1 4th▼ down 2
Loss
2.09 PPG
4th▼ down 2 3rd▼ down 1 4th▼ down 2

Can we move up this round? No. With a 1–2 loss we fall to at least 3rd even if every rival loses, and as low as 4th if every rival wins.

Where we finish

2,000 simulated seasons

2% finish 1st
90% top 4
10% below the top 4
3.0 average finish
  1. 1st 2%
  2. 2nd 39%
  3. 3rd 34%
  4. 4th 16%
  5. 5th 6%
  6. 6th 2%
  7. 7th 1%
  8. 8th 1%
  9. 9th <1%
  10. 10th <1%
  11. 11th <1%
  12. 12th
  13. 13th
  14. 14th
  15. 15th
  16. 16th
  17. 17th
  18. 18th
  19. 19th

Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.

Climbing the table

What it takes to pass each team above us, from our 10 remaining known games (max 2.65 PPG if we win out).

#TeamPPGProj.To pass them
1 Pride SC 3.00 (+0.70) 1st (2.68) 37 of 30 pts to pass their current pace, 31 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule

How the results connect

107 chains · 8 teams

Paths of results that link Colorado Storm Central to Pride SC through teams both have faced, drawn as one map. Teams sit in columns by how many games away from us they are. Each arrow is one game, pointing away from us, and its colour is the result for the team it starts from. Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain and see its net goal margin.

24 favour us
6 even
77 favour them
-2.2 goals per chain on average. The results point their way.
won lost drew· result for the team the arrow starts from
1–0 1–2 3–1 2–5 0–3 6–1 2–3 1–3 0–5 3–1 0–5 1–1 6–1 1–14 4–0 5–2 2–0 Colorado Storm Cent… 2nd Colorado EDGE 7th Real Colorado Olymp… 9th Colorado Storm South 5th Colorado Rush 8th Colorado Storm North 19th Arsenal Colorado 3rd Pride SC 1st

Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain, or step through them with the arrows. Open full screen and turn your phone to see the whole map.

12 chains

Position over the season

16 game days

1st 10th 19th Aug 16 Sep 5 Sep 19 Sep 27 Oct 10 Oct 18

The table re-sorted after each date on which a game was played. Shaded band is the top 4.

The path

run-in difficulty +0.42 · 2nd hardest of 19

DateOpponentWhereDifficultyWinLikelyExp. ptsRun. PPGPriority
Sat Oct 31
10:00 AM
Pride SC
1st · 9-0-0 · GD +38
Away far trip
Pride Soccer Complex
●●●●● Very tough
19%
1–2 0.72 2.16 Upside
Sat Nov 7
01:30 PM
Colorado Storm South
5th · 6-1-5 · GD +9
Home
Centennial Stadium Field Complex · turf?
●●○○○ Lean win
62%
2–1 2.02 2.15 Swing game
Sun Nov 8
01:30 PM
Real Colorado Olympico
9th · 3-0-10 · GD -31
Away
Highland Heritage Regional Park
●○○○○ Favorable
86%
3–0 2.67 2.19 Bank it
Sat Nov 21
01:30 PM
NUU Avalanche
17th · 0-0-0 · GD +0
Home
Centennial Stadium Field Complex · turf?
●●○○○ Lean win
70%
3–1 2.25 2.19 Swing game
Sun Nov 22
09:00 AM
Avalanche
10th · 0-0-0 · GD +0
Home
Centennial Stadium Field Complex · turf?
●●○○○ Lean win
70%
3–1 2.25 2.19 Swing game
Sat Dec 12
11:15 AM
NM Rapids SC
16th · 0-0-0 · GD +0
Home
Centennial Stadium Field Complex · turf?
●●○○○ Lean win
70%
3–1 2.25 2.20 Swing game
Sun Dec 13
09:00 AM
El Paso Locomotive FC G11/12
12th · 0-0-0 · GD +0
Home
Centennial Stadium Field Complex · turf?
●●○○○ Lean win
70%
3–1 2.25 2.20 Swing game
Sat Jan 9
01:30 PM
Pride SC
1st · 9-0-0 · GD +38
Home
Centennial Stadium Field Complex · turf?
●●●●○ Tough
27%
1–2 0.99 2.13 Upside
Sat Feb 20
10:00 AM
Boise Thorns
11th · 0-0-0 · GD +0
Away far trip
Rocky Mountain High School
●●○○○ Lean win
60%
2–1 1.99 2.13 Swing game
Sun Feb 21
TBD
Idaho Rush
13th · 0-0-0 · GD +0
Away
●●○○○ Lean win
60%
2–1 1.99 2.12 Swing game

"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.

Standings

#TeamGPWDLGFGAGDPtsPPGFormSoSRun-inTop 4Exp. finish
1 Pride SC 9900 468+38 273.00 WWWWW -0.63 +0.09 100% 1.1
2 Colorado Storm Central 10721 3211+21 232.30 WWLWD -0.70 +0.42 90% 3.0
3 Arsenal Colorado 11812 3215+17 252.27 WWWWD -0.66 +0.53 73% 4.0
4 CCV STARS 4301 157+8 92.25 LWWW +0.06 -0.03 78% 3.6
5 Colorado Storm South 12615 3223+9 191.58 WWLLW -0.17 +0.22 4% 7.9
6 Arizona Soccer Club 4202 78-1 61.50 WLLW +0.06 +0.24 3% 11.8
7 Colorado EDGE 11407 2122-1 121.09 LLLLL +0.58 -0.65 0% 11.5
8 Colorado Rush 11326 1021-11 111.00 DLLWL +0.09 +0.08 0% 15.5
9 Real Colorado Olympico 133010 1546-31 90.69 WWWLL +0.08 +0.30 0% 17.8
10 Avalanche 0000 00+0 00.00 — -0.08 ——
11 Boise Thorns 0000 00+0 00.00 — -0.00 ——
12 El Paso Locomotive FC G11/12 0000 00+0 00.00 — +0.08 ——
13 Idaho Rush 0000 00+0 00.00 — -0.00 ——
14 La Roca FC North 0000 00+0 00.00 — +0.04 ——
15 La Roca FC South 0000 00+0 00.00 — +0.04 ——
16 NM Rapids SC 0000 00+0 00.00 — +0.08 ——
17 NUU Avalanche 0000 00+0 00.00 — -0.00 ——
18 Utah Surf 0000 00+0 00.00 — +0.04 ——
19 Colorado Storm North 110011 1059-49 00.00 LLLLL +0.31 +0.22 0% 19.0

Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.

How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (2.19 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.