Nationals SC

ECNL Regional League Girls · Lake Michigan GU17 · 5 teams · Nationals (all teams)

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1st

6-1-2 record · 9 played

2.11 points per game

+19 goal diff · 34–15

DWLLWlast 5

100% chance of top 4 · expected finish 1.1

-0.05 schedule faced · avg opponent rating

Next game — Sat Oct 31, 09:00 AM

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Nationals SC
1st · 2.11 PPG

Liverpool FC MI
5th · 0.50 PPG

Detroit Country Day, Field 1 ↗ far trip

88%

windrawloss

●○○○○ Favorable to win

Most likely score 4–1 (expected goals 4.3 for, 1.1 against · 2.71 expected points)

Season so far	Nationals SC	Liverpool FC MI
Position	1st	5th
Record (W-D-L)	6-1-2	1-1-6
Points per game	2.11	0.50
Goals for / game	3.8	0.9
Goals against / game	1.7	3.6
Clean sheets	0	0
Held scoreless	1	2
Form (recent first)	W L L W D	L L D L L
Biggest win	6–1 vs Liverpool FC MI	2–1 vs Evolution
Worst loss	0–1 at Chicago Inter	0–9 vs FC 1974 Libertyville
Model rating (net goals vs avg)	+1.42	-1.74
Schedule faced (avg opp. rating)	-0.05	+0.48

Already played this season: Sun Sep 27 6–1 vs Liverpool FC MI (W)

Common opponents: Michigan Hawks — we 3–2, 5–1; they 0–2. Eclipse Select Soccer Club — we 5–2; they 1–3. Chicago Inter — we 1–1, 0–1; they 1–5. FC 1974 Libertyville — we 1–2; they 0–9. Evolution — we 5–1; they 2–1.

Game plan

They struggle to score
Liverpool FC MI average 0.9 goals/game (league avg 2.1); blanked in 2 of 8.
A higher defensive line and an aggressive counter-press are low-risk here. Keep the back line connected to midfield so one long ball doesn't turn into a 1v1 — that is the only way this opponent scores.
They leak goals — be greedy
Liverpool FC MI concede 3.6/game; worst result 0–9 vs FC 1974 Libertyville.
Commit numbers forward, shoot early and often, and attack second balls. Goal difference is the tiebreaker on PPG, so keep playing to score for the full game — rotate players rather than pace.
Finishing wins the tight ones
Held scoreless 1 time(s): 0–1 at Chicago Inter.
Against a low block, the first goal usually comes from a cross or a cut-back, not a dribble. Get 2–3 bodies in the box on every wide entry and finish practice this week at game speed.
Expected win — the trap is complacency
Model gives a 88% chance; likely score 4–1.
Treat the first 15 minutes like a final: score early, then the game manages itself. This is the ideal game to give rotation players real minutes in the second half without risking points.
Away game
Kickoff 09:00 AM at Detroit Country Day.
Arrive 75 minutes early to see the surface and goal size; plan a longer dynamic warm-up after a drive. Away wins are worth the same 3 points — keep the routine identical to home.
Early kickoff
Game time 09:00 AM.
Light breakfast 2+ hours before, longer warm-up, and a loud start — early games are won by whoever is awake at the whistle.

If Saturday goes…

Where we'd sit after the Liverpool FC MI game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (Nationals SC – Liverpool FC MI) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 0 other games that week (Mon Oct 26 – Sun Nov 1); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.

Our result	Rivals don't play	Likely results	Every rival wins
– Win · 2.20 PPG	1st— holds	1st— holds	1st— holds
Win 2.20 PPG	1st— holds	1st— holds	1st— holds
Draw 2.00 PPG	1st— holds	1st— holds	1st— holds
Loss 1.90 PPG	1st— holds	1st— holds	1st— holds

Can we move up this round? No. With a 4–1 win we stay 1st even if every rival loses, whatever the rivals do.

Where we finish

2,000 simulated seasons

90% finish 1st

100% top 4

0% below the top 4

1.1 average finish

1st 90%
2nd 10%
3rd 1%
4th
5th

Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.

Climbing the table

Top of the table. The job is to stay there: see the path below for where points are most at risk.

How the results connect

9 chains · 5 teams

Paths of results that link Nationals SC to Liverpool FC MI through teams both have faced, drawn as one map. Teams sit in columns by how many games away from us they are. Each arrow is one game, pointing away from us, and its colour is the result for the team it starts from. Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain and see its net goal margin.

9 favour us

0 favour them

+4.2 goals per chain on average. The results point our way.

won lost drew· result for the team the arrow starts from

Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain, or step through them with the arrows. Open full screen and turn your phone to see the whole map.

9 chains

Position over the season

7 game days

The table re-sorted after each date on which a game was played. Shaded band is the top 4.

The path

run-in difficulty -1.05 · 5th hardest of 5

Date	Opponent	Where	Difficulty	Win	Likely	Exp. pts	Run. PPG	Priority
Sat Oct 31 09:00 AM	Liverpool FC MI 5th · 1-1-6 · GD -22	Away far trip Detroit Country Day	●○○○○ Favorable	88%	4–1	2.71	2.17	Bank it
Sun Nov 8 TBD	Eclipse Select Soccer Club 3rd · 4-0-3 · GD -3	Away	●●○○○ Lean win	68%	3–1	2.19	2.17	Swing game

"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.

Standings

Team

Pts

PPG

Form

SoS

Run-in

Top 4

Exp. finish

Nationals SC

+19

2.11

DWLLW

-0.05

-1.05

100%

1.1

W	Sun Oct 18	vs	Evolution (—)	5–1
L	Sat Oct 17	vs	FC 1974 Libertyville (—)	1–2
L	Sat Oct 10	at	Chicago Inter (2nd)	0–1
W	Sun Sep 27	vs	Liverpool FC MI (5th)	6–1
D	Sun Sep 20	at	Chicago Inter (2nd)	1–1
W	Sat Sep 19	at	Eclipse Select Soccer Club (3rd)	5–2
W	Sat Sep 12	at	Michigan Hawks (4th)	5–1
W	Sun Aug 30	vs	Michigan Hawks (4th)	3–2

Next: Sat Oct 31 at Liverpool FC MI · Sun Nov 8 at Eclipse Select Soccer Club See all 2 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 31	at	Liverpool FC MI (5th)	4–1	88%
·	Sun Nov 8	at	Eclipse Select Soccer Club (3rd)	3–1	68%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Chicago Inter

+10

1.75

WWDW

+0.24

-0.53

100%

2.1

W	Sat Oct 10	vs	Nationals SC (1st)	1–0
D	Sun Sep 20	vs	Nationals SC (1st)	1–1
W	Sat Sep 19	vs	Liverpool FC MI (5th)	5–1
W	Sun Aug 30	vs	Eclipse Select Soccer Club (3rd)	3–1

Next: Sat Oct 24 at Liverpool FC MI · Sun Oct 25 at Michigan Hawks · Sun Nov 8 vs Michigan Hawks See all 4 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 24	at	Liverpool FC MI (5th)	3–0	80%
·	Sun Oct 25	at	Michigan Hawks (4th)	2–1	53%
·	Sun Nov 8	vs	Michigan Hawks (4th)	2–1	62%
·	Sat Nov 21	at	Eclipse Select Soccer Club (3rd)	2–1	60%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Eclipse Select Soccer Club

-3

1.71

LLW

+0.16

+0.11

100%

3.3

W	Sun Sep 20	vs	Liverpool FC MI (5th)	3–1
L	Sat Sep 19	vs	Nationals SC (1st)	2–5
L	Sun Aug 30	at	Chicago Inter (2nd)	1–3

Next: Sat Oct 24 at Michigan Hawks · Sun Oct 25 at Liverpool FC MI · Sat Nov 7 vs Michigan Hawks See all 5 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 24	at	Michigan Hawks (4th)	1–2	29%
·	Sun Oct 25	at	Liverpool FC MI (5th)	2–1	62%
·	Sat Nov 7	vs	Michigan Hawks (4th)	2–2	39%
·	Sun Nov 8	vs	Nationals SC (1st)	1–3	17%
·	Sat Nov 21	vs	Chicago Inter (2nd)	1–2	21%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Michigan Hawks

1.43

DWWWL

+0.22

-0.14

100%

3.4

L	Sun Oct 18	vs	FC 1974 Libertyville (—)	1–3
W	Sat Oct 17	vs	Evolution (—)	3–0
W	Sun Oct 11	at	Liverpool FC MI (5th)	2–0
W	Sun Oct 4	vs	FC Wisconsin (—)	5–1
D	Sat Oct 3	vs	Rockford Raptors FC (—)	1–1
L	Sat Sep 12	vs	Nationals SC (1st)	1–5
L	Sun Aug 30	at	Nationals SC (1st)	2–3

Next: Sat Oct 24 vs Eclipse Select Soccer Club · Sun Oct 25 vs Chicago Inter · Sat Nov 7 at Eclipse Select Soccer Club See all 5 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 24	vs	Eclipse Select Soccer Club (3rd)	2–1	52%
·	Sun Oct 25	vs	Chicago Inter (2nd)	1–2	26%
·	Sat Nov 7	at	Eclipse Select Soccer Club (3rd)	2–2	41%
·	Sun Nov 8	at	Chicago Inter (2nd)	1–2	19%
·	Sat Nov 21	at	Liverpool FC MI (5th)	2–1	67%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Liverpool FC MI

-22

0.50

LLDLL

+0.48

5.0

L	Sun Oct 11	vs	Michigan Hawks (4th)	0–2
L	Sun Oct 4	vs	Rockford Raptors FC (—)	1–2
D	Sat Oct 3	vs	FC Wisconsin (—)	1–1
L	Sun Sep 27	at	Nationals SC (1st)	1–6
L	Sun Sep 20	at	Eclipse Select Soccer Club (3rd)	1–3
L	Sat Sep 19	at	Chicago Inter (2nd)	1–5
W	Sun Sep 13	vs	Evolution (—)	2–1
L	Sat Sep 12	vs	FC 1974 Libertyville (—)	0–9

Next: Sat Oct 24 vs Chicago Inter · Sun Oct 25 vs Eclipse Select Soccer Club · Sat Oct 31 vs Nationals SC See all 4 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 24	vs	Chicago Inter (2nd)	0–3	8%
·	Sun Oct 25	vs	Eclipse Select Soccer Club (3rd)	1–2	20%
·	Sat Oct 31	vs	Nationals SC (1st)	1–4	5%
·	Sat Nov 21	vs	Michigan Hawks (4th)	1–2	17%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.

How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (2.09 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.