Michigan Hawks
ECNL Regional League Girls · Lake Michigan GU17 · 5 teams · Michigan Hawks (all teams)
Next game — Sun Oct 25, 07:30 AM
Schoolcraft Turf, SC Turf ↗ · turf
●●●●○ Tough to win
Most likely score 1–1 (expected goals 1.3 for, 1.9 against · 1.01 expected points)
| Season so far | Michigan Hawks | Chicago Inter |
|---|---|---|
| Position | 3rd | 2nd |
| Record (W-D-L) | 4-1-3 | 5-2-2 |
| Points per game | 1.63 | 1.89 |
| Goals for / game | 2.3 | 2.1 |
| Goals against / game | 1.9 | 0.9 |
| Clean sheets | 2 | 2 |
| Held scoreless | 0 | 0 |
| Form (recent first) | W L W W W | W W D W W |
| Biggest win | 5–1 vs FC Wisconsin | 5–1 vs Liverpool FC MI |
| Worst loss | 1–5 vs Nationals SC | — |
| Model rating (net goals vs avg) | +0.06 | +0.83 |
| Schedule faced (avg opp. rating) | +0.05 | -0.19 |
Common opponents: Nationals SC — we 2–3, 1–5; they 1–1, 1–0. Liverpool FC MI — we 2–0; they 5–1, 1–0. Eclipse Select Soccer Club — we 3–2; they 3–1.
Game plan
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Hard to break down
Chicago Inter concede only 0.9/game with 2 clean sheet(s).Patience and width: move the ball quickly side to side to pull the block apart, and treat set pieces as your best chance — rehearse two corner routines and a near-post free-kick delivery.
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Underdog — play free, stay organised
Model gives 26%; a draw (23%) would be a good result.Keep the shape compact, make them play in front of you, and hit space behind their full-backs on transitions. A point here is a win for the table; a win is a season-changer.
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Early kickoff
Game time 07:30 AM.Light breakfast 2+ hours before, longer warm-up, and a loud start — early games are won by whoever is awake at the whistle.
If Sunday goes…
Where we'd sit after the Chicago Inter game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (Michigan Hawks – Chicago Inter) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 1 other games that week (Mon Oct 19 – Sun Oct 25); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.
| Our result | Rivals don't play | Likely results | Every rival wins |
|---|---|---|---|
| – Draw · 1.56 PPG |
3rd— holds | 4th▼ down 1 | 4th▼ down 1 |
| Win 1.78 PPG |
2nd▲ up 1 | 2nd▲ up 1 | 2nd▲ up 1 |
| Draw 1.56 PPG |
3rd— holds | 4th▼ down 1 | 4th▼ down 1 |
| Loss 1.44 PPG |
4th▼ down 1 | 4th▼ down 1 | 4th▼ down 1 |
Can we move up this round? No. With a 1–1 draw we stay 3rd even if every rival loses, and as low as 4th if every rival wins.
Where we finish
2,000 simulated seasons
- 1st <1%
- 2nd 12%
- 3rd 59%
- 4th 28%
- 5th
Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.
Climbing the table
What it takes to pass each team above us, from our 4 remaining known games (max 2.08 PPG if we win out).
| # | Team | PPG | Proj. | To pass them |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Nationals SC | 2.11 (+0.48) | 1st (2.18) | 13 of 12 pts to pass their current pace, 14 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule |
| 2 | Chicago Inter | 1.89 (+0.26) | 2nd (1.90) | 10 of 12 pts to pass their current pace, 10 for their projection |
How the results connect
20 chains · 5 teams
Paths of results that link Michigan Hawks to Chicago Inter through teams both have faced, drawn as one map. Teams sit in columns by how many games away from us they are. Each arrow is one game, pointing away from us, and its colour is the result for the team it starts from. Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain and see its net goal margin.
Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain, or step through them with the arrows. Open full screen and turn your phone to see the whole map.
Step through the chains with the arrows, or tap one on the map.
Position over the season
8 game days
The table re-sorted after each date on which a game was played. Shaded band is the top 4.
The path
run-in difficulty -0.10 · 4th hardest of 5
| Date | Opponent | Where | Difficulty | Win | Likely | Exp. pts | Run. PPG | Priority |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sun Oct 25 07:30 AM |
Chicago Inter 2nd · 5-2-2 · GD +11 |
Home Schoolcraft Turf · turf |
●●●●○ Tough | 26% |
1–1 | 1.01 | 1.56 | Upside |
| Sat Nov 7 TBD |
Eclipse Select Soccer Club 4th · 4-0-4 · GD -4 |
Away |
●●●○○ Toss-up | 44% |
2–2 | 1.52 | 1.55 | Swing game |
| Sun Nov 8 10:45 AM |
Chicago Inter 2nd · 5-2-2 · GD +11 |
Away far trip
Chicago Inter Complex |
●●●●● Very tough | 19% |
1–2 | 0.78 | 1.48 | Upside |
| Sat Nov 21 TBD |
Liverpool FC MI 5th · 1-1-7 · GD -23 |
Away |
●●○○○ Lean win | 69% |
2–1 | 2.22 | 1.54 | Swing game |
"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.
Standings
| # | Team | GP | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | PPG | Form | SoS | Run-in | Top 4 | Exp. finish | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| 1 | Nationals SC | 9 | 6 | 1 | 2 | 34 | 15 | +19 | 19 | 2.11 | DWLLW | -0.04 | -1.03 | 100% | 1.1 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 31 at Liverpool FC MI · Sun Nov 8 at Eclipse Select Soccer Club See all 2 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 2 | Chicago Inter | 9 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 19 | 8 | +11 | 17 | 1.89 | WWDWW | -0.19 | -0.10 | 100% | 2.1 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Oct 25 at Michigan Hawks · Sun Nov 8 vs Michigan Hawks · Sat Nov 21 at Eclipse Select Soccer Club See all 3 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 3 | Michigan Hawks | 8 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 18 | 15 | +3 | 13 | 1.63 | WWWLW | +0.05 | -0.10 | 100% | 3.2 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Oct 25 vs Chicago Inter · Sat Nov 7 at Eclipse Select Soccer Club · Sun Nov 8 at Chicago Inter See all 4 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 4 | Eclipse Select Soccer Club | 8 | 4 | 0 | 4 | 15 | 19 | -4 | 12 | 1.50 | LLWL | +0.14 | +0.16 | 100% | 3.6 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Oct 25 at Liverpool FC MI · Sat Nov 7 vs Michigan Hawks · Sun Nov 8 vs Nationals SC See all 4 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 5 | Liverpool FC MI | 9 | 1 | 1 | 7 | 7 | 30 | -23 | 4 | 0.44 | LDLLL | +0.55 | +0.35 | 0% | 5.0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Oct 25 vs Eclipse Select Soccer Club · Sat Oct 31 vs Nationals SC · Sat Nov 21 vs Michigan Hawks See all 3 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.
How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (2.00 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.