Liverpool FC MI
ECNL Regional League Girls · Lake Michigan GU15 · 5 teams · Liverpool FC-IA Michigan (all teams)
Next game — Sat Oct 24, 09:00 AM
●○○○○ Favorable to win
Most likely score 2–0 (expected goals 2.6 for, 0.7 against · 2.48 expected points)
| Season so far | Liverpool FC MI | Chicago Inter |
|---|---|---|
| Position | 2nd | 4th |
| Record (W-D-L) | 6-0-2 | 2-2-4 |
| Points per game | 2.25 | 1.00 |
| Goals for / game | 3.1 | 1.1 |
| Goals against / game | 0.9 | 1.8 |
| Clean sheets | 6 | 0 |
| Held scoreless | 1 | 3 |
| Form (recent first) | W W W L W | D L L L |
| Biggest win | 8–0 vs Evolution | — |
| Worst loss | 3–5 vs FC 1974 Libertyville | 0–4 vs Nationals SC |
| Model rating (net goals vs avg) | +0.98 | -0.59 |
| Schedule faced (avg opp. rating) | +0.02 | +1.04 |
Already played this season: Sat Sep 19 1–0 at Chicago Inter (W)
Common opponents: Eclipse Select Soccer Club — we 2–0; they 0–2. Nationals SC — we 0–2; they 0–4, 2–2.
Game plan
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Finishing wins the tight ones
Held scoreless 1 time(s): 0–2 at Nationals SC.Against a low block, the first goal usually comes from a cross or a cut-back, not a dribble. Get 2–3 bodies in the box on every wide entry and finish practice this week at game speed.
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Expected win — the trap is complacency
Model gives a 78% chance; likely score 2–0.Treat the first 15 minutes like a final: score early, then the game manages itself. This is the ideal game to give rotation players real minutes in the second half without risking points.
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Early kickoff
Game time 09:00 AM.Light breakfast 2+ hours before, longer warm-up, and a loud start — early games are won by whoever is awake at the whistle.
If Saturday goes…
Where we'd sit after the Chicago Inter game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (Liverpool FC MI – Chicago Inter) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 2 other games that week (Mon Oct 19 – Sun Oct 25); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.
| Our result | Rivals don't play | Likely results | Every rival wins |
|---|---|---|---|
| – Win · 2.33 PPG |
2nd— holds | 2nd— holds | 2nd— holds |
| Win 2.33 PPG |
2nd— holds | 2nd— holds | 2nd— holds |
| Draw 2.11 PPG |
2nd— holds | 2nd— holds | 2nd— holds |
| Loss 2.00 PPG |
2nd— holds | 2nd— holds | 2nd— holds |
Can we move up this round? No. With a 2–0 win we stay 2nd even if every rival loses, whatever the rivals do.
Where we finish
2,000 simulated seasons
- 1st 7%
- 2nd 86%
- 3rd 6%
- 4th
- 5th
Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.
Climbing the table
What it takes to pass each team above us, from our 4 remaining known games (max 2.50 PPG if we win out).
| # | Team | PPG | Proj. | To pass them |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Nationals SC | 2.78 (+0.53) | 1st (2.57) | 16 of 12 pts to pass their current pace, 13 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule |
How the results connect
11 chains · 5 teams
Paths of results that link Liverpool FC MI to Chicago Inter through teams both have faced, drawn as one map. Teams sit in columns by how many games away from us they are. Each arrow is one game, pointing away from us, and its colour is the result for the team it starts from. Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain and see its net goal margin.
Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain, or step through them with the arrows. Open full screen and turn your phone to see the whole map.
Step through the chains with the arrows, or tap one on the map.
Position over the season
7 game days
The table re-sorted after each date on which a game was played. Shaded band is the top 4.
The path
run-in difficulty +0.04 · 3rd hardest of 5
| Date | Opponent | Where | Difficulty | Win | Likely | Exp. pts | Run. PPG | Priority |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat Oct 24 09:00 AM |
Chicago Inter 4th · 2-2-4 · GD -5 |
Home UWM Sports Complex |
●○○○○ Favorable | 78% |
2–0 | 2.48 | 2.28 | Bank it |
| Sun Oct 25 09:00 AM |
Eclipse Select Soccer Club 3rd · 4-0-3 · GD +11 |
Home UWM Sports Complex |
●●○○○ Lean win | 59% |
2–1 | 1.97 | 2.25 | Swing game |
| Sat Oct 31 01:00 PM |
Nationals SC 1st · 8-1-0 · GD +24 |
Home Detroit Country Day Hillview Field |
●●●●○ Tough | 37% |
1–1 | 1.36 | 2.16 | Upside |
| Sat Nov 21 TBD |
Michigan Hawks 5th · 0-2-5 · GD -16 |
Home |
●○○○○ Favorable | 85% |
3–0 | 2.65 | 2.21 | Bank it |
"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.
Standings
| # | Team | GP | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | PPG | Form | SoS | Run-in | Top 4 | Exp. finish | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| 1 | Nationals SC | 9 | 8 | 1 | 0 | 30 | 6 | +24 | 25 | 2.78 | WWDWW | -0.28 | +0.68 | 100% | 1.1 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 31 at Liverpool FC MI · Sun Nov 8 at Eclipse Select Soccer Club See all 2 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 2 | Liverpool FC MI | 8 | 6 | 0 | 2 | 25 | 7 | +18 | 18 | 2.25 | WLWWW | +0.02 | +0.04 | 100% | 2.0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 vs Chicago Inter · Sun Oct 25 vs Eclipse Select Soccer Club · Sat Oct 31 vs Nationals SC See all 4 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 3 | Eclipse Select Soccer Club | 7 | 4 | 0 | 3 | 20 | 9 | +11 | 12 | 1.71 | WLL | +0.62 | -0.05 | 100% | 3.0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 at Michigan Hawks · Sun Oct 25 at Liverpool FC MI · Sat Nov 7 vs Michigan Hawks See all 5 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 4 | Chicago Inter | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 9 | 14 | -5 | 8 | 1.00 | LLLD | +1.04 | -0.15 | 96% | 4.0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 at Liverpool FC MI · Sun Oct 25 at Michigan Hawks · Sun Nov 8 vs Michigan Hawks See all 4 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 5 | Michigan Hawks | 7 | 0 | 2 | 5 | 5 | 21 | -16 | 2 | 0.29 | LDLDL | +1.20 | +0.11 | 4% | 5.0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 vs Eclipse Select Soccer Club · Sun Oct 25 vs Chicago Inter · Sat Nov 7 at Eclipse Select Soccer Club See all 5 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.
How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (1.28 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.