FC 1974 Libertyville
ECNL Regional League Girls · Lake Michigan GU13 · 4 teams · Greater Libertyville Soccer Association (all teams)
Next game — Sun Nov 1, 12:00 PM
Nike Park Sports Complex, Turf field ↗ · turf far trip
●●●○○ Toss-up to win
Most likely score 2–1 (expected goals 2.1 for, 1.4 against · 1.83 expected points)
| Season so far | FC 1974 Libertyville | Evolution |
|---|---|---|
| Position | 1st | 3rd |
| Record (W-D-L) | 3-0-0 | 2-0-3 |
| Points per game | 3.00 | 1.20 |
| Goals for / game | 3.3 | 2.2 |
| Goals against / game | 0.3 | 1.4 |
| Clean sheets | 2 | 2 |
| Held scoreless | 0 | 0 |
| Form (recent first) | W W W | W W L |
| Biggest win | 4–0 vs Eclipse Select Soccer Club | 5–0 vs Chicago Inter |
| Worst loss | — | 1–2 at Rockford Raptors FC |
| Model rating (net goals vs avg) | +1.08 | +0.17 |
| Schedule faced (avg opp. rating) | -0.73 | +0.61 |
Common opponents: Eclipse Select Soccer Club — we 4–0; they 3–0. Chicago Inter — we 2–0; they 5–0.
Game plan
-
Swing game — small margins
Win 54% / draw 21% / loss 25%.Games like this are decided by one set piece or one transition. Prioritise the strongest XI for the full game, be disciplined with fouls near the box, and have a clear late-game plan for both "protect the lead" and "chase".
-
Away game
Kickoff 12:00 PM at Nike Park Sports Complex.Arrive 75 minutes early to see the surface and goal size; plan a longer dynamic warm-up after a drive. Away wins are worth the same 3 points — keep the routine identical to home.
If Sunday goes…
Where we'd sit after the Evolution game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (FC 1974 Libertyville – Evolution) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 0 other games that week (Mon Oct 26 – Sun Nov 1); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.
| Our result | Rivals don't play | Likely results | Every rival wins |
|---|---|---|---|
| – Win · 3.00 PPG |
1st— holds | 1st— holds | 1st— holds |
| Win 3.00 PPG |
1st— holds | 1st— holds | 1st— holds |
| Draw 2.50 PPG |
2nd▼ down 1 | 2nd▼ down 1 | 2nd▼ down 1 |
| Loss 2.25 PPG |
2nd▼ down 1 | 2nd▼ down 1 | 2nd▼ down 1 |
Can we move up this round? No. With a 2–1 win we stay 1st even if every rival loses, whatever the rivals do.
Where we finish
2,000 simulated seasons
- 1st 64%
- 2nd 34%
- 3rd 3%
- 4th
Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.
Climbing the table
Top of the table. The job is to stay there: see the path below for where points are most at risk.
How the results connect
1 chain · 4 teams
Paths of results that link FC 1974 Libertyville to Evolution through teams both have faced, drawn as one map. Teams sit in columns by how many games away from us they are. Each arrow is one game, pointing away from us, and its colour is the result for the team it starts from. Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain and see its net goal margin.
Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain, or step through them with the arrows. Open full screen and turn your phone to see the whole map.
Step through the chains with the arrows, or tap one on the map.
Position over the season
2 game days
Not enough game days yet to draw a line.
The table re-sorted after each date on which a game was played. Shaded band is the top 4.
The path
run-in difficulty +0.09 · 4th hardest of 4
| Date | Opponent | Where | Difficulty | Win | Likely | Exp. pts | Run. PPG | Priority |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sun Nov 1 12:00 PM |
Evolution 3rd · 2-0-3 · GD +4 |
Away far trip
Nike Park Sports Complex · turf |
●●●○○ Toss-up | 54% |
2–1 | 1.83 | 2.71 | Swing game |
| Sun Nov 15 11:00 AM |
Rockford Raptors FC 2nd · 4-1-0 · GD +8 |
Away far trip
Mercyhealth Sportscore Two |
●●●●○ Tough | 40% |
1–1 | 1.44 | 2.45 | Upside |
| Sun Mar 21 10:00 AM |
Evolution 3rd · 2-0-3 · GD +4 |
Home LTSC |
●●○○○ Lean win | 64% |
2–1 | 2.09 | 2.39 | Swing game |
| Sat Apr 24 10:00 AM |
Rockford Raptors FC 2nd · 4-1-0 · GD +8 |
Home LTSC |
●●●○○ Toss-up | 48% |
1–1 | 1.69 | 2.29 | Swing game |
| Sun Apr 25 TBD |
FC Wisconsin 4th · 0-2-3 · GD -6 |
Home |
●○○○○ Favorable | 80% |
3–0 | 2.53 | 2.32 | Bank it |
| Sat May 8 TBD |
Nationals SC |
Home |
●●○○○ Lean win | 66% |
2–1 | 2.17 | 2.31 | Swing game |
| Sun May 9 TBD |
Nationals SC |
Home |
●●○○○ Lean win | 66% |
2–1 | 2.17 | 2.29 | Swing game |
| Sat May 15 10:00 AM |
Michigan Hawks |
Home LTSC |
●●○○○ Lean win | 66% |
2–1 | 2.17 | 2.28 | Swing game |
| Sun May 16 08:00 AM |
Liverpool FC MI |
Home LTSC |
●●○○○ Lean win | 66% |
2–1 | 2.17 | 2.27 | Swing game |
"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.
Standings
| # | Team | GP | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | PPG | Form | SoS | Run-in | Top 4 | Exp. finish | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| 1 | FC 1974 Libertyville | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 10 | 1 | +9 | 9 | 3.00 | WWW | -0.73 | +0.09 | 100% | 1.4 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Nov 1 at Evolution · Sun Nov 15 at Rockford Raptors FC · Sun Mar 21 vs Evolution See all 9 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 2 | Rockford Raptors FC | 5 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 11 | 3 | +8 | 13 | 2.60 | WWW | -0.25 | +0.23 | 100% | 1.7 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Nov 1 vs Eclipse Select Soccer Club · Sun Nov 15 vs FC 1974 Libertyville · Sun Mar 21 vs FC Wisconsin See all 7 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 3 | Evolution | 5 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 11 | 7 | +4 | 6 | 1.20 | LWW | +0.61 | +0.19 | 100% | 3.0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Nov 1 vs FC 1974 Libertyville · Sun Nov 8 vs FC Wisconsin · Sun Mar 21 at FC 1974 Libertyville See all 7 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 4 | FC Wisconsin | 5 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 6 | 12 | -6 | 2 | 0.40 | LLD | +0.86 | +0.29 | 100% | 3.9 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Nov 8 at Evolution · Sun Mar 21 at Rockford Raptors FC · Sat Apr 10 vs Nationals SC See all 7 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.
How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (1.58 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.