Chicago Inter

ECNL Regional League Girls · Lake Michigan GU13 · 5 teams · Chicago Inter (all teams)

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3rd

1-1-5 record · 7 played

0.57 points per game

-9 goal diff · 5–14

WLLlast 3

95% chance of top 4 · expected finish 3.3

+0.39 schedule faced · avg opponent rating

Next game — Sun Mar 21, TBD

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Chicago Inter
3rd · 0.57 PPG

Eclipse Select Soccer Club
5th · 0.00 PPG

Venue TBD

47% 27% 26%

windrawloss

●●●○○ Toss-up to win

Most likely score 1–0 (expected goals 1.4 for, 1.0 against · 1.67 expected points)

Season so far	Chicago Inter	Eclipse Select Soccer Club
Position	3rd	5th
Record (W-D-L)	1-1-5	0-0-5
Points per game	0.57	0.00
Goals for / game	0.7	0.2
Goals against / game	2.0	2.6
Clean sheets	1	0
Held scoreless	1	2
Form (recent first)	L L W	L L L
Biggest win	3–0 vs Eclipse Select Soccer Club	—
Worst loss	0–2 vs Nationals SC	0–3 at Chicago Inter
Model rating (net goals vs avg)	-0.43	-1.01
Schedule faced (avg opp. rating)	+0.39	+0.56

Already played this season: Sun Aug 30 3–0 vs Eclipse Select Soccer Club (W)

Common opponents: Liverpool FC MI — we 1–2; they 1–2. Nationals SC — we 0–2; they 0–1.

Game plan

They struggle to score
Eclipse Select Soccer Club average 0.2 goals/game (league avg 1.4); blanked in 2 of 5.
A higher defensive line and an aggressive counter-press are low-risk here. Keep the back line connected to midfield so one long ball doesn't turn into a 1v1 — that is the only way this opponent scores.
They leak goals — be greedy
Eclipse Select Soccer Club concede 2.6/game; worst result 0–3 at Chicago Inter.
Commit numbers forward, shoot early and often, and attack second balls. Goal difference is the tiebreaker on PPG, so keep playing to score for the full game — rotate players rather than pace.
Finishing wins the tight ones
Held scoreless 1 time(s): 0–2 vs Nationals SC.
Against a low block, the first goal usually comes from a cross or a cut-back, not a dribble. Get 2–3 bodies in the box on every wide entry and finish practice this week at game speed.
Swing game — small margins
Win 47% / draw 27% / loss 26%.
Games like this are decided by one set piece or one transition. Prioritise the strongest XI for the full game, be disciplined with fouls near the box, and have a clear late-game plan for both "protect the lead" and "chase".
Confidence is low on their side
Eclipse Select Soccer Club have lost 3 straight (form: LLL).
Teams on losing runs go quiet after conceding. An early goal usually ends the contest — start fast.
Away game
Kickoff TBD at TBD.
Arrive 75 minutes early to see the surface and goal size; plan a longer dynamic warm-up after a drive. Away wins are worth the same 3 points — keep the routine identical to home.

If Sunday goes…

Where we'd sit after the Eclipse Select Soccer Club game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (Chicago Inter – Eclipse Select Soccer Club) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 1 other games that week (Mon Mar 15 – Sun Mar 21); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.

Our result	Rivals don't play	Likely results	Every rival wins
– Win · 0.88 PPG	3rd— holds	3rd— holds	3rd— holds
Win 0.88 PPG	3rd— holds	3rd— holds	3rd— holds
Draw 0.63 PPG	3rd— holds	3rd— holds	4th▼ down 1
Loss 0.50 PPG	3rd— holds	3rd— holds	4th▼ down 1

Can we move up this round? No. With a 1–0 win we stay 3rd even if every rival loses, whatever the rivals do.

Where we finish

2,000 simulated seasons

0% finish 1st

95% top 4

5% below the top 4

3.3 average finish

1st
2nd
3rd 74%
4th 21%
5th 5%

Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.

Climbing the table

What it takes to pass each team above us, from our 9 remaining known games (max 1.94 PPG if we win out).

#	Team	PPG	Proj.	To pass them
1	Nationals SC	3.00 (+2.43)	1st (2.56)	44 of 27 pts to pass their current pace, 37 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule
2	Liverpool FC MI	2.60 (+2.03)	2nd (2.24)	38 of 27 pts to pass their current pace, 32 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule

How the results connect

3 chains · 4 teams

Paths of results that link Chicago Inter to Eclipse Select Soccer Club through teams both have faced, drawn as one map. Teams sit in columns by how many games away from us they are. Each arrow is one game, pointing away from us, and its colour is the result for the team it starts from. Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain and see its net goal margin.

1 favour us

1 even

1 favour them

+0.7 goals per chain on average. The results point our way.

won lost drew· result for the team the arrow starts from

Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain, or step through them with the arrows. Open full screen and turn your phone to see the whole map.

3 chains

Position over the season

4 game days

The table re-sorted after each date on which a game was played. Shaded band is the top 4.

The path

run-in difficulty -0.22 · 5th hardest of 5

Date	Opponent	Where	Difficulty	Win	Likely	Exp. pts	Run. PPG	Priority
Sun Mar 21 TBD	Eclipse Select Soccer Club 5th · 0-0-5 · GD -12	Away	●●●○○ Toss-up	47%	1–0	1.67	0.71	Swing game
Sat Apr 3 TBD	Michigan Hawks 4th · 0-1-3 · GD -13	Home	●●○○○ Lean win	63%	2–1	2.09	0.86	Swing game
Sun Apr 4 TBD	Michigan Hawks 4th · 0-1-3 · GD -13	Home	●●○○○ Lean win	63%	2–1	2.09	0.98	Swing game
Sat Apr 10 TBD	Evolution	Home	●●●●○ Tough	31%	1–1	1.20	1.00	Upside
Sun Apr 11 TBD	FC 1974 Libertyville	Home	●●●●○ Tough	31%	1–1	1.20	1.02	Upside
Sat Apr 17 TBD	Nationals SC 1st · 5-0-0 · GD +11	Away	●●●●● Very tough	8%	0–2	0.39	0.97	Upside
Sun Apr 18 TBD	Liverpool FC MI 2nd · 4-1-0 · GD +8	Away	●●●●● Very tough	12%	0–2	0.53	0.94	Upside
Sat May 1 TBD	Rockford Raptors FC	Home	●●●●○ Tough	31%	1–1	1.20	0.96	Upside
Sun May 2 TBD	FC Wisconsin	Home	●●●●○ Tough	31%	1–1	1.20	0.97	Upside

"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.

Standings

Team

Pts

PPG

Form

SoS

Run-in

Top 4

Exp. finish

Nationals SC

+11

3.00

WWWWW

-0.96

-0.18

100%

1.2

W	Sun Oct 18	vs	Evolution (—)	3–1
W	Sat Oct 17	vs	Evolution (—)	2–1
W	Sun Sep 20	at	Chicago Inter (3rd)	2–0
W	Sat Sep 19	at	Eclipse Select Soccer Club (5th)	1–0
W	Sun Aug 30	vs	Michigan Hawks (4th)	5–0

Next: Sat Oct 24 vs Rockford Raptors FC · Sun Oct 25 vs FC Wisconsin · Sat Oct 31 at Liverpool FC MI See all 7 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 24	vs	Rockford Raptors FC (—)	2–0	69%
·	Sun Oct 25	vs	FC Wisconsin (—)	2–0	69%
·	Sat Oct 31	at	Liverpool FC MI (2nd)	1–1	44%
·	Sun Mar 21	at	Michigan Hawks (4th)	3–0	88%
·	Sat Apr 3	vs	Liverpool FC MI (2nd)	1–1	52%
·	Sat Apr 17	vs	Chicago Inter (3rd)	2–0	76%
·	Sun Apr 18	vs	Eclipse Select Soccer Club (5th)	2–0	85%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Liverpool FC MI

2.60

WWWDW

-1.01

-0.09

100%

1.8

W	Sun Oct 11	vs	Michigan Hawks (4th)	4–0
D	Sun Oct 4	vs	Rockford Raptors FC (—)	2–2
W	Sat Oct 3	vs	FC Wisconsin (—)	3–1
W	Sun Sep 20	at	Eclipse Select Soccer Club (5th)	2–1
W	Sat Sep 19	at	Chicago Inter (3rd)	2–1

Next: Sat Oct 31 vs Nationals SC · Sat Apr 3 at Nationals SC · Sat Apr 17 vs Eclipse Select Soccer Club See all 7 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 31	vs	Nationals SC (1st)	1–1	31%
·	Sat Apr 3	at	Nationals SC (1st)	1–1	24%
·	Sat Apr 17	vs	Eclipse Select Soccer Club (5th)	2–0	82%
·	Sun Apr 18	vs	Chicago Inter (3rd)	2–0	71%
·	Sat May 1	vs	FC 1974 Libertyville (—)	2–1	62%
·	Sun May 2	vs	Evolution (—)	2–1	62%
·	Sat May 8	vs	Michigan Hawks (4th)	3–0	89%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Chicago Inter

-9

0.57

WLL

+0.39

-0.22

95%

3.3

L	Sun Sep 20	vs	Nationals SC (1st)	0–2
L	Sat Sep 19	vs	Liverpool FC MI (2nd)	1–2
W	Sun Aug 30	vs	Eclipse Select Soccer Club (5th)	3–0

Next: Sun Mar 21 at Eclipse Select Soccer Club · Sat Apr 3 vs Michigan Hawks · Sun Apr 4 vs Michigan Hawks See all 9 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sun Mar 21	at	Eclipse Select Soccer Club (5th)	1–0	47%
·	Sat Apr 3	vs	Michigan Hawks (4th)	2–1	63%
·	Sun Apr 4	vs	Michigan Hawks (4th)	2–1	63%
·	Sat Apr 10	vs	Evolution (—)	1–1	31%
·	Sun Apr 11	vs	FC 1974 Libertyville (—)	1–1	31%
·	Sat Apr 17	at	Nationals SC (1st)	0–2	8%
·	Sun Apr 18	at	Liverpool FC MI (2nd)	0–2	12%
·	Sat May 1	vs	Rockford Raptors FC (—)	1–1	31%
·	Sun May 2	vs	FC Wisconsin (—)	1–1	31%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Michigan Hawks

-13

0.25

LLDL

+0.99

-0.09

62%

4.2

L	Sun Oct 11	at	Liverpool FC MI (2nd)	0–4
D	Sun Oct 4	vs	FC Wisconsin (—)	3–3
L	Sat Oct 3	vs	Rockford Raptors FC (—)	0–4
L	Sun Aug 30	at	Nationals SC (1st)	0–5

Next: Sat Oct 24 vs FC Wisconsin · Sun Oct 25 vs Rockford Raptors FC · Sun Mar 21 vs Nationals SC See all 10 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 24	vs	FC Wisconsin (—)	1–2	16%
·	Sun Oct 25	vs	Rockford Raptors FC (—)	1–2	16%
·	Sun Mar 21	vs	Nationals SC (1st)	0–3	4%
·	Sat Apr 3	at	Chicago Inter (3rd)	1–2	17%
·	Sun Apr 4	at	Chicago Inter (3rd)	1–2	17%
·	Sat Apr 24	vs	Eclipse Select Soccer Club (5th)	1–1	38%
·	Sun Apr 25	vs	Eclipse Select Soccer Club (5th)	1–1	38%
·	Sat May 1	vs	Evolution (—)	1–2	16%
·	Sun May 2	vs	FC 1974 Libertyville (—)	1–2	16%
·	Sat May 8	at	Liverpool FC MI (2nd)	0–3	4%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Eclipse Select Soccer Club

-12

0.00

LLL

+0.56

-0.16

43%

4.5

L	Sun Sep 20	vs	Liverpool FC MI (2nd)	1–2
L	Sat Sep 19	vs	Nationals SC (1st)	0–1
L	Sun Aug 30	at	Chicago Inter (3rd)	0–3

Next: Sun Mar 21 vs Chicago Inter · Sat Apr 10 vs FC 1974 Libertyville · Sun Apr 11 vs Evolution See all 9 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sun Mar 21	vs	Chicago Inter (3rd)	0–1	26%
·	Sat Apr 10	vs	FC 1974 Libertyville (—)	0–1	19%
·	Sun Apr 11	vs	Evolution (—)	0–1	19%
·	Sat Apr 17	at	Liverpool FC MI (2nd)	0–2	6%
·	Sun Apr 18	at	Nationals SC (1st)	0–2	4%
·	Sat Apr 24	at	Michigan Hawks (4th)	1–1	37%
·	Sun Apr 25	at	Michigan Hawks (4th)	1–1	37%
·	Sat May 1	vs	FC Wisconsin (—)	0–1	19%
·	Sun May 2	vs	Rockford Raptors FC (—)	0–1	19%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.

How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (1.42 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.