Toca Fusion Elite
ECNL Regional League Girls · Heartland GU18/19 · 6 teams · Toca Fusion Athletic Club (all teams)
Next game — Sat Oct 24, 11:00 AM
Compass Minerals Sporting Fields, Field 3 ↗
●○○○○ Favorable to win
Most likely score 2–0 (expected goals 2.6 for, 0.6 against · 2.52 expected points)
| Season so far | Toca Fusion Elite | Sporting Blue Valley |
|---|---|---|
| Position | 3rd | 6th |
| Record (W-D-L) | 6-0-3 | 1-1-7 |
| Points per game | 2.00 | 0.44 |
| Goals for / game | 2.2 | 0.8 |
| Goals against / game | 0.8 | 2.6 |
| Clean sheets | 2 | 1 |
| Held scoreless | 2 | 5 |
| Form (recent first) | W W L W W | L L W D L |
| Biggest win | 3–0 at Sporting Blue Valley | 3–0 vs Gretna Elite Academy |
| Worst loss | 0–2 vs Kansas Rush Gold | 0–5 vs Kansas City Athletics |
| Model rating (net goals vs avg) | +0.77 | -1.21 |
| Schedule faced (avg opp. rating) | -0.11 | -0.11 |
Already played this season: Sat Sep 12 3–0 at Sporting Blue Valley (W)
Common opponents: Kansas Rush Gold — we 0–2; they 1–3. Kansas City Athletics — we 2–1; they 0–5. Gretna Elite Academy — we 2–0; they 2–2, 3–0. Omaha United SC — we 2–1; they 0–4, 0–1.
Game plan
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They struggle to score
Sporting Blue Valley average 0.8 goals/game (league avg 1.8); blanked in 5 of 9.A higher defensive line and an aggressive counter-press are low-risk here. Keep the back line connected to midfield so one long ball doesn't turn into a 1v1 — that is the only way this opponent scores.
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Finishing wins the tight ones
Held scoreless 2 time(s): 0–2 vs Kansas Rush Gold, 0–1 vs FC United Iowa.Against a low block, the first goal usually comes from a cross or a cut-back, not a dribble. Get 2–3 bodies in the box on every wide entry and finish practice this week at game speed.
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Expected win — the trap is complacency
Model gives a 79% chance; likely score 2–0.Treat the first 15 minutes like a final: score early, then the game manages itself. This is the ideal game to give rotation players real minutes in the second half without risking points.
If Saturday goes…
Where we'd sit after the Sporting Blue Valley game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (Toca Fusion Elite – Sporting Blue Valley) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 2 other games that week (Mon Oct 19 – Sun Oct 25); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.
| Our result | Rivals don't play | Likely results | Every rival wins |
|---|---|---|---|
| – Win · 2.10 PPG |
3rd— holds | 3rd— holds | 3rd— holds |
| Win 2.10 PPG |
3rd— holds | 3rd— holds | 3rd— holds |
| Draw 1.90 PPG |
3rd— holds | 3rd— holds | 3rd— holds |
| Loss 1.80 PPG |
3rd— holds | 3rd— holds | 3rd— holds |
Can we move up this round? Yes. With a 2–0 win we finish as high as 1st if every rival drops points, and as low as 3rd if every rival wins.
Where we finish
2,000 simulated seasons
- 1st 2%
- 2nd 11%
- 3rd 87%
- 4th
- 5th
- 6th
Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.
Climbing the table
What it takes to pass each team above us, from our 7 remaining known games (max 2.44 PPG if we win out).
| # | Team | PPG | Proj. | To pass them |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Kansas Rush Gold | 2.44 (+0.44) | 1st (2.41) | 22 of 21 pts to pass their current pace, 21 for their projection |
| 2 | Kansas City Athletics | 2.27 (+0.27) | 2nd (2.22) | 19 of 21 pts to pass their current pace, 18 for their projection |
How the results connect
31 chains · 6 teams
Paths of results that link Toca Fusion Elite to Sporting Blue Valley through teams both have faced, drawn as one map. Teams sit in columns by how many games away from us they are. Each arrow is one game, pointing away from us, and its colour is the result for the team it starts from. Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain and see its net goal margin.
Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain, or step through them with the arrows. Open full screen and turn your phone to see the whole map.
Step through the chains with the arrows, or tap one on the map.
Position over the season
12 game days
The table re-sorted after each date on which a game was played. Shaded band is the top 4.
The path
run-in difficulty -0.03 · 5th hardest of 6
| Date | Opponent | Where | Difficulty | Win | Likely | Exp. pts | Run. PPG | Priority |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat Oct 24 11:00 AM |
Sporting Blue Valley 6th · 1-1-7 · GD -16 |
Home Compass Minerals Sporting Fields |
●○○○○ Favorable | 79% |
2–0 | 2.52 | 2.05 | Bank it |
| Sat Oct 31 09:00 AM |
Kansas City Athletics 2nd · 8-1-2 · GD +24 |
Away far trip
Paragon Star Soccer Complex |
●●●●● Very tough | 23% |
1–1 | 0.93 | 1.95 | Upside |
| Sat Nov 7 04:00 PM |
St. Louis Scott Gallagher MO |
Home Compass Minerals Sporting Fields |
●●○○○ Lean win | 60% |
2–1 | 2.01 | 1.95 | Swing game |
| Sun Nov 8 01:00 PM |
St. Louis Scott Gallagher IL |
Home Compass Minerals Sporting Fields |
●●○○○ Lean win | 60% |
2–1 | 2.01 | 1.96 | Swing game |
| Sat Nov 21 12:00 PM |
Omaha United SC 4th · 4-2-7 · GD -25 |
Away far trip
Levi Carter Sports Complex |
●○○○○ Favorable | 76% |
2–0 | 2.42 | 1.99 | Bank it |
| Sun Nov 22 01:00 PM |
Gretna Elite Academy 5th · 2-1-10 · GD -14 |
Away far trip
Pinnacle Bank Soccer Complex ( Gretna Soccer Compl |
●●○○○ Lean win | 68% |
2–1 | 2.21 | 2.01 | Swing game |
| Sat Dec 5 03:00 PM |
Kansas Rush Gold 1st · 7-1-1 · GD +25 |
Away Compass Minerals National Performance Center |
●●●●● Very tough | 20% |
1–1 | 0.83 | 1.93 | Upside |
"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.
Standings
| # | Team | GP | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | PPG | Form | SoS | Run-in | Top 4 | Exp. finish | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| 1 | Kansas Rush Gold | 9 | 7 | 1 | 1 | 30 | 5 | +25 | 22 | 2.44 | DLWWW | -0.36 | -0.17 | 100% | 1.2 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 vs Kansas City Athletics · Sun Oct 25 at Sporting Blue Valley · Sat Nov 7 vs St. Louis Scott Gallagher IL See all 7 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 2 | Kansas City Athletics | 11 | 8 | 1 | 2 | 34 | 10 | +24 | 25 | 2.27 | WWLWW | -0.49 | +0.26 | 100% | 1.9 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 at Kansas Rush Gold · Sat Oct 31 vs Toca Fusion Elite · Sat Nov 21 vs Sporting Iowa See all 5 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 3 | Toca Fusion Elite | 9 | 6 | 0 | 3 | 20 | 7 | +13 | 18 | 2.00 | WWLWW | -0.11 | -0.03 | 100% | 2.9 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 vs Sporting Blue Valley · Sat Oct 31 at Kansas City Athletics · Sat Nov 7 vs St. Louis Scott Gallagher MO See all 7 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 4 | Omaha United SC | 13 | 4 | 2 | 7 | 14 | 39 | -25 | 14 | 1.08 | LLLLW | +0.36 | +0.55 | 99% | 4.0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Nov 7 vs Gretna Elite Academy · Sat Nov 21 vs Toca Fusion Elite · Sun Nov 22 vs Kansas Rush Gold See all 3 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 5 | Gretna Elite Academy | 13 | 2 | 1 | 10 | 24 | 38 | -14 | 7 | 0.54 | DLLLL | +0.29 | +0.37 | 1% | 5.1 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Nov 7 at Omaha United SC · Sat Nov 21 vs Kansas Rush Gold · Sun Nov 22 vs Toca Fusion Elite See all 3 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 6 | Sporting Blue Valley | 9 | 1 | 1 | 7 | 7 | 23 | -16 | 4 | 0.44 | LDWLL | -0.11 | +0.81 | 0% | 5.9 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 at Toca Fusion Elite · Sun Oct 25 vs Kansas Rush Gold · Sat Nov 21 vs FC United Iowa See all 5 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.
How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (1.80 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.