St. Louis Scott Gallagher IL
ECNL Regional League Girls · Heartland GU18/19 · 6 teams · St. Louis Scott Gallagher (all teams)
Next game — Sun Oct 25, 01:00 PM
Missouri Rush Sports Park, Field 1 ↗ far trip
●○○○○ Favorable to win
Most likely score 3–0 (expected goals 3.9 for, 0.4 against · 2.87 expected points)
| Season so far | St. Louis Scott Gallagher IL | Missouri Rush |
|---|---|---|
| Position | 1st | 6th |
| Record (W-D-L) | 7-1-2 | 0-0-11 |
| Points per game | 2.20 | 0.00 |
| Goals for / game | 2.5 | 0.2 |
| Goals against / game | 0.8 | 4.1 |
| Clean sheets | 3 | 0 |
| Held scoreless | 0 | 8 |
| Form (recent first) | W D L W W | L L L L L |
| Biggest win | 6–0 vs Omaha United SC | — |
| Worst loss | 1–2 at FC United Iowa | 0–8 vs Toca Fusion Elite |
| Model rating (net goals vs avg) | +0.94 | -2.38 |
| Schedule faced (avg opp. rating) | -0.16 | +0.44 |
Already played this season: Sun Aug 23 4–1 vs Missouri Rush (W)
Common opponents: AFA Fillies — we 3–1; they 0–3. Sporting Iowa — we 2–0, 1–1; they 0–4. FC United Iowa — we 1–2, 1–0; they 0–6.
Game plan
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They struggle to score
Missouri Rush average 0.2 goals/game (league avg 1.3); blanked in 8 of 11.A higher defensive line and an aggressive counter-press are low-risk here. Keep the back line connected to midfield so one long ball doesn't turn into a 1v1 — that is the only way this opponent scores.
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They leak goals — be greedy
Missouri Rush concede 4.1/game; worst result 0–8 vs Toca Fusion Elite.Commit numbers forward, shoot early and often, and attack second balls. Goal difference is the tiebreaker on PPG, so keep playing to score for the full game — rotate players rather than pace.
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Expected win — the trap is complacency
Model gives a 94% chance; likely score 3–0.Treat the first 15 minutes like a final: score early, then the game manages itself. This is the ideal game to give rotation players real minutes in the second half without risking points.
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Confidence is low on their side
Missouri Rush have lost 9 straight (form: LLLLL).Teams on losing runs go quiet after conceding. An early goal usually ends the contest — start fast.
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Away game
Kickoff 01:00 PM at Missouri Rush Sports Park.Arrive 75 minutes early to see the surface and goal size; plan a longer dynamic warm-up after a drive. Away wins are worth the same 3 points — keep the routine identical to home.
If Sunday goes…
Where we'd sit after the Missouri Rush game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (St. Louis Scott Gallagher IL – Missouri Rush) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 0 other games that week (Mon Oct 19 – Sun Oct 25); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.
| Our result | Rivals don't play | Likely results | Every rival wins |
|---|---|---|---|
| – Win · 2.27 PPG |
1st— holds | 1st— holds | 1st— holds |
| Win 2.27 PPG |
1st— holds | 1st— holds | 1st— holds |
| Draw 2.09 PPG |
2nd▼ down 1 | 2nd▼ down 1 | 2nd▼ down 1 |
| Loss 2.00 PPG |
2nd▼ down 1 | 2nd▼ down 1 | 2nd▼ down 1 |
Can we move up this round? No. With a 3–0 win we stay 1st even if every rival loses, whatever the rivals do.
Where we finish
2,000 simulated seasons
- 1st 61%
- 2nd 24%
- 3rd 10%
- 4th 5%
- 5th
- 6th
Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.
Climbing the table
Top of the table. The job is to stay there: see the path below for where points are most at risk.
How the results connect
34 chains · 6 teams
Paths of results that link St. Louis Scott Gallagher IL to Missouri Rush through teams both have faced, drawn as one map. Teams sit in columns by how many games away from us they are. Each arrow is one game, pointing away from us, and its colour is the result for the team it starts from. Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain and see its net goal margin.
Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain, or step through them with the arrows. Open full screen and turn your phone to see the whole map.
Step through the chains with the arrows, or tap one on the map.
Position over the season
14 game days
The table re-sorted after each date on which a game was played. Shaded band is the top 4.
The path
run-in difficulty -0.21 · 4th hardest of 6
| Date | Opponent | Where | Difficulty | Win | Likely | Exp. pts | Run. PPG | Priority |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sun Oct 18 02:00 PM no score posted |
AFA Fillies 2nd · 7-0-3 · GD +7 |
Home Collinsville Soccer Complex |
●●●○○ Toss-up | 52% |
1–1 | 1.78 | 2.16 | Swing game |
| Sun Oct 25 01:00 PM |
Missouri Rush 6th · 0-0-11 · GD -43 |
Away far trip
Missouri Rush Sports Park |
●○○○○ Favorable | 94% |
3–0 | 2.87 | 2.22 | Bank it |
| Tue Nov 3 08:00 PM |
St. Louis Scott Gallagher MO 3rd · 7-1-3 · GD +12 |
Home O'Fallon Sports Park |
●●●○○ Toss-up | 50% |
1–1 | 1.76 | 2.19 | Swing game |
| Sat Dec 12 12:00 PM |
St. Louis Scott Gallagher MO 3rd · 7-1-3 · GD +12 |
Away far trip
WWT Soccer Park |
●●●○○ Toss-up | 42% |
1–1 | 1.53 | 2.14 | Swing game |
"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.
Standings
| # | Team | GP | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | PPG | Form | SoS | Run-in | Top 4 | Exp. finish | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| 1 | St. Louis Scott Gallagher IL | 10 | 7 | 1 | 2 | 25 | 8 | +17 | 22 | 2.20 | WWLDW | -0.16 | -0.21 | 100% | 1.6 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Oct 18 vs AFA Fillies · Sun Oct 25 at Missouri Rush · Tue Nov 3 vs St. Louis Scott Gallagher MO See all 4 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 2 | AFA Fillies | 10 | 7 | 0 | 3 | 21 | 14 | +7 | 21 | 2.10 | LWWLW | -0.17 | -0.13 | 100% | 2.7 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 10 vs Sporting Blue Valley · Sun Oct 18 at St. Louis Scott Gallagher IL · Sat Oct 31 at Sporting Iowa See all 6 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 3 | St. Louis Scott Gallagher MO | 11 | 7 | 1 | 3 | 22 | 10 | +12 | 22 | 2.00 | DLWWL | -0.55 | +0.83 | 100% | 3.5 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Tue Nov 3 at St. Louis Scott Gallagher IL · Sat Nov 21 at AFA Fillies · Sat Dec 12 vs St. Louis Scott Gallagher IL See all 3 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 4 | FC United Iowa | 11 | 7 | 1 | 3 | 23 | 14 | +9 | 22 | 2.00 | DWWWL | +0.15 | -0.75 | 100% | 2.2 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 31 vs Missouri Rush · Sun Nov 1 vs AFA Fillies · Sat Nov 7 vs Sporting Iowa See all 3 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 5 | Sporting Iowa | 11 | 2 | 3 | 6 | 10 | 19 | -9 | 9 | 0.82 | LLLDL | +0.28 | -0.38 | 0% | 5.0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 31 vs AFA Fillies · Sun Nov 1 vs Missouri Rush · Sat Nov 7 at FC United Iowa See all 3 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 6 | Missouri Rush | 11 | 0 | 0 | 11 | 2 | 45 | -43 | 0 | 0.00 | LLLLL | +0.44 | +0.34 | 0% | 6.0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Oct 11 vs Sporting Blue Valley · Sun Oct 25 vs St. Louis Scott Gallagher IL · Sat Oct 31 at FC United Iowa See all 5 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.
How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (1.35 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.