AFA Fillies
ECNL Regional League Girls · Heartland GU18/19 · 6 teams · AFA Fillies (all teams)
Next game — Sat Oct 31, 11:00 AM
Hy-Vee Multiplex, Green #2 ↗ far trip
●●○○○ Lean win to win
Most likely score 1–0 (expected goals 1.9 for, 1.0 against · 1.99 expected points)
| Season so far | AFA Fillies | Sporting Iowa |
|---|---|---|
| Position | 2nd | 5th |
| Record (W-D-L) | 7-0-3 | 2-3-6 |
| Points per game | 2.10 | 0.82 |
| Goals for / game | 2.1 | 0.9 |
| Goals against / game | 1.4 | 1.7 |
| Clean sheets | 4 | 2 |
| Held scoreless | 1 | 6 |
| Form (recent first) | W L W W L | L D L L L |
| Biggest win | 3–0 at Missouri Rush | 4–0 at Missouri Rush |
| Worst loss | 0–4 vs Kansas Rush Gold | 0–4 at St. Louis Scott Gallagher MO |
| Model rating (net goals vs avg) | +0.60 | -0.48 |
| Schedule faced (avg opp. rating) | -0.17 | +0.28 |
Already played this season: Sat Sep 5 1–0 vs Sporting Iowa (W)
Common opponents: FC United Iowa — we 3–1; they 1–1. St. Louis Scott Gallagher IL — we 1–3; they 0–2, 1–1. Kansas Rush Gold — we 0–4; they 1–4. Toca Fusion Elite — we 2–0; they 0–3. Missouri Rush — we 3–0; they 4–0. St. Louis Scott Gallagher MO — we 2–0; they 0–1, 0–4.
Game plan
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Finishing wins the tight ones
Held scoreless 1 time(s): 0–4 vs Kansas Rush Gold.Against a low block, the first goal usually comes from a cross or a cut-back, not a dribble. Get 2–3 bodies in the box on every wide entry and finish practice this week at game speed.
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Swing game — small margins
Win 59% / draw 22% / loss 19%.Games like this are decided by one set piece or one transition. Prioritise the strongest XI for the full game, be disciplined with fouls near the box, and have a clear late-game plan for both "protect the lead" and "chase".
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Away game
Kickoff 11:00 AM at Hy-Vee Multiplex.Arrive 75 minutes early to see the surface and goal size; plan a longer dynamic warm-up after a drive. Away wins are worth the same 3 points — keep the routine identical to home.
If Saturday goes…
Where we'd sit after the Sporting Iowa game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (AFA Fillies – Sporting Iowa) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 2 other games that week (Mon Oct 26 – Sun Nov 1); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.
| Our result | Rivals don't play | Likely results | Every rival wins |
|---|---|---|---|
| – Win · 2.18 PPG |
2nd— holds | 2nd— holds | 2nd— holds |
| Win 2.18 PPG |
2nd— holds | 2nd— holds | 2nd— holds |
| Draw 2.00 PPG |
4th▼ down 2 | 4th▼ down 2 | 4th▼ down 2 |
| Loss 1.91 PPG |
4th▼ down 2 | 4th▼ down 2 | 4th▼ down 2 |
Can we move up this round? No. With a 1–0 win we stay 2nd even if every rival loses, whatever the rivals do.
Where we finish
2,000 simulated seasons
- 1st 15%
- 2nd 24%
- 3rd 39%
- 4th 21%
- 5th
- 6th
Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.
Climbing the table
What it takes to pass each team above us, from our 6 remaining known games (max 2.44 PPG if we win out).
| # | Team | PPG | Proj. | To pass them |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | St. Louis Scott Gallagher IL | 2.20 (+0.10) | 1st (2.14) | 15 of 18 pts to pass their current pace, 14 for their projection |
How the results connect
30 chains · 6 teams
Paths of results that link AFA Fillies to Sporting Iowa through teams both have faced, drawn as one map. Teams sit in columns by how many games away from us they are. Each arrow is one game, pointing away from us, and its colour is the result for the team it starts from. Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain and see its net goal margin.
Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain, or step through them with the arrows. Open full screen and turn your phone to see the whole map.
Step through the chains with the arrows, or tap one on the map.
Position over the season
14 game days
The table re-sorted after each date on which a game was played. Shaded band is the top 4.
The path
run-in difficulty -0.13 · 3rd hardest of 6
| Date | Opponent | Where | Difficulty | Win | Likely | Exp. pts | Run. PPG | Priority |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat Oct 10 03:00 PM no score posted |
Sporting Blue Valley |
Home Mueller Sports Complex |
●●●○○ Toss-up | 56% |
1–1 | 1.90 | 2.08 | Swing game |
| Sun Oct 18 02:00 PM no score posted |
St. Louis Scott Gallagher IL 1st · 7-1-2 · GD +17 |
Away far trip
Collinsville Soccer Complex |
●●●●○ Tough | 25% |
1–1 | 0.99 | 1.99 | Upside |
| Sat Oct 31 11:00 AM |
Sporting Iowa 5th · 2-3-6 · GD -9 |
Away far trip
Hy-Vee Multiplex |
●●○○○ Lean win | 59% |
1–0 | 1.99 | 1.99 | Swing game |
| Sun Nov 1 12:00 PM |
FC United Iowa 4th · 7-1-3 · GD +9 |
Away far trip
Tuma Soccer Complex |
●●●●○ Tough | 34% |
1–1 | 1.24 | 1.94 | Upside |
| Sat Nov 7 03:00 PM |
Missouri Rush 6th · 0-0-11 · GD -43 |
Home Mueller Sports Complex |
●○○○○ Favorable | 95% |
4–0 | 2.89 | 2.00 | Bank it |
| Sat Nov 21 03:00 PM |
St. Louis Scott Gallagher MO 3rd · 7-1-3 · GD +12 |
Home Mueller Sports Complex |
●●●○○ Toss-up | 42% |
1–1 | 1.52 | 1.97 | Swing game |
"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.
Standings
| # | Team | GP | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | PPG | Form | SoS | Run-in | Top 4 | Exp. finish | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| 1 | St. Louis Scott Gallagher IL | 10 | 7 | 1 | 2 | 25 | 8 | +17 | 22 | 2.20 | WWLDW | -0.16 | -0.21 | 100% | 1.6 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Oct 18 vs AFA Fillies · Sun Oct 25 at Missouri Rush · Tue Nov 3 vs St. Louis Scott Gallagher MO See all 4 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 2 | AFA Fillies | 10 | 7 | 0 | 3 | 21 | 14 | +7 | 21 | 2.10 | LWWLW | -0.17 | -0.13 | 100% | 2.7 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 10 vs Sporting Blue Valley · Sun Oct 18 at St. Louis Scott Gallagher IL · Sat Oct 31 at Sporting Iowa See all 6 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 3 | St. Louis Scott Gallagher MO | 11 | 7 | 1 | 3 | 22 | 10 | +12 | 22 | 2.00 | DLWWL | -0.55 | +0.83 | 100% | 3.5 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Tue Nov 3 at St. Louis Scott Gallagher IL · Sat Nov 21 at AFA Fillies · Sat Dec 12 vs St. Louis Scott Gallagher IL See all 3 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 4 | FC United Iowa | 11 | 7 | 1 | 3 | 23 | 14 | +9 | 22 | 2.00 | DWWWL | +0.15 | -0.75 | 100% | 2.2 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 31 vs Missouri Rush · Sun Nov 1 vs AFA Fillies · Sat Nov 7 vs Sporting Iowa See all 3 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 5 | Sporting Iowa | 11 | 2 | 3 | 6 | 10 | 19 | -9 | 9 | 0.82 | LLLDL | +0.28 | -0.38 | 0% | 5.0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 31 vs AFA Fillies · Sun Nov 1 vs Missouri Rush · Sat Nov 7 at FC United Iowa See all 3 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 6 | Missouri Rush | 11 | 0 | 0 | 11 | 2 | 45 | -43 | 0 | 0.00 | LLLLL | +0.44 | +0.34 | 0% | 6.0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Oct 11 vs Sporting Blue Valley · Sun Oct 25 vs St. Louis Scott Gallagher IL · Sat Oct 31 at FC United Iowa See all 5 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.
How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (1.35 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.