St. Louis Scott Gallagher MO
ECNL Regional League Girls · Heartland GU17 · 6 teams · St. Louis Scott Gallagher (all teams)
Next game — Sat Oct 31, 10:00 AM
Collinsville Soccer Complex, Field 2 ↗ far trip
●●●●○ Tough to win
Most likely score 2–2 (expected goals 2.1 for, 2.4 against · 1.24 expected points)
| Season so far | St. Louis Scott Gallagher MO | St. Louis Scott Gallagher IL |
|---|---|---|
| Position | 2nd | 1st |
| Record (W-D-L) | 8-1-2 | 7-4-0 |
| Points per game | 2.27 | 2.27 |
| Goals for / game | 3.4 | 3.5 |
| Goals against / game | 1.3 | 1.3 |
| Clean sheets | 3 | 1 |
| Held scoreless | 0 | 0 |
| Form (recent first) | W D W W W | W W W W D |
| Biggest win | 5–0 vs FC United Iowa | 9–1 vs Omaha United SC |
| Worst loss | 1–2 at Missouri Rush | — |
| Model rating (net goals vs avg) | +1.42 | +1.46 |
| Schedule faced (avg opp. rating) | -0.94 | -0.97 |
Common opponents: Sporting Iowa — we 5–1, 4–1; they 2–2, 7–2. FC United Iowa — we 6–2, 5–0; they 4–0, 5–1. Missouri Rush — we 1–2, 3–0; they 3–1. Gretna Elite Academy — we 1–2; they 2–2. Omaha United SC — we 4–0; they 9–1. AFA Fillies — we 2–2; they 2–1, 3–2.
Game plan
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Respect their attack
St. Louis Scott Gallagher IL score 3.5/game — well above the league's 2.2.Deny the easy goals first: compact shape between the lines, no fouls in shooting range, and a plan for their best outlet. Score first and make them chase.
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Underdog — play free, stay organised
Model gives 35%; a draw (19%) would be a good result.Keep the shape compact, make them play in front of you, and hit space behind their full-backs on transitions. A point here is a win for the table; a win is a season-changer.
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They arrive in form
St. Louis Scott Gallagher IL have won 4 straight.Don't let them settle: deny the first 10 minutes of rhythm with pressure on their first pass out of the back.
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Away game
Kickoff 10:00 AM at Collinsville Soccer Complex.Arrive 75 minutes early to see the surface and goal size; plan a longer dynamic warm-up after a drive. Away wins are worth the same 3 points — keep the routine identical to home.
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What a win does
St. Louis Scott Gallagher IL sit 1st on 2.27 PPG; we are on 2.27.A point moves us above St. Louis Scott Gallagher IL on PPG (if they don't play). GD is the next tiebreak, so every goal matters — keep attacking with a lead.
If Saturday goes…
Where we'd sit after the St. Louis Scott Gallagher IL game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (St. Louis Scott Gallagher MO – St. Louis Scott Gallagher IL) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 4 other games that week (Mon Oct 26 – Sun Nov 1); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.
| Our result | Rivals don't play | Likely results | Every rival wins |
|---|---|---|---|
| – Draw · 2.17 PPG |
2nd— holds | 2nd— holds | 2nd— holds |
| Win 2.33 PPG |
1st▲ up 1 | 1st▲ up 1 | 1st▲ up 1 |
| Draw 2.17 PPG |
2nd— holds | 2nd— holds | 2nd— holds |
| Loss 2.08 PPG |
2nd— holds | 2nd— holds | 2nd— holds |
Can we move up this round? No. With a 2–2 draw we stay 2nd even if every rival loses, whatever the rivals do.
Where we finish
2,000 simulated seasons
- 1st 43%
- 2nd 54%
- 3rd 3%
- 4th
- 5th
- 6th
Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.
Climbing the table
What it takes to pass each team above us, from our 3 remaining known games (max 2.43 PPG if we win out).
| # | Team | PPG | Proj. | To pass them |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | St. Louis Scott Gallagher IL | 2.27 (+0.00) | 1st (2.12) | A point next game |
How the results connect
49 chains · 6 teams
Paths of results that link St. Louis Scott Gallagher MO to St. Louis Scott Gallagher IL through teams both have faced, drawn as one map. Teams sit in columns by how many games away from us they are. Each arrow is one game, pointing away from us, and its colour is the result for the team it starts from. Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain and see its net goal margin.
Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain, or step through them with the arrows. Open full screen and turn your phone to see the whole map.
Step through the chains with the arrows, or tap one on the map.
Position over the season
14 game days
The table re-sorted after each date on which a game was played. Shaded band is the top 4.
The path
run-in difficulty +1.14 · 1st hardest of 6
| Date | Opponent | Where | Difficulty | Win | Likely | Exp. pts | Run. PPG | Priority |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat Oct 31 10:00 AM |
St. Louis Scott Gallagher IL 1st · 7-4-0 · GD +25 |
Away far trip
Collinsville Soccer Complex |
●●●●○ Tough | 35% |
2–2 | 1.24 | 2.19 | Upside |
| Sat Nov 21 01:00 PM |
AFA Fillies 4th · 5-1-5 · GD +4 |
Away far trip
Mueller Sports Complex |
●●●○○ Toss-up | 50% |
2–1 | 1.71 | 2.15 | Swing game |
| Fri Dec 11 07:00 PM |
St. Louis Scott Gallagher IL 1st · 7-4-0 · GD +25 |
Home WWT Soccer Park |
●●●○○ Toss-up | 46% |
2–2 | 1.56 | 2.11 | Swing game |
"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.
Standings
| # | Team | GP | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | PPG | Form | SoS | Run-in | Top 4 | Exp. finish | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| 1 | St. Louis Scott Gallagher IL | 11 | 7 | 4 | 0 | 39 | 14 | +25 | 25 | 2.27 | DWWWW | -0.97 | +0.97 | 100% | 1.4 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Oct 25 at Missouri Rush · Sat Oct 31 vs St. Louis Scott Gallagher MO · Fri Dec 11 at St. Louis Scott Gallagher MO See all 3 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 2 | St. Louis Scott Gallagher MO | 11 | 8 | 1 | 2 | 37 | 14 | +23 | 25 | 2.27 | WWWDW | -0.94 | +1.14 | 100% | 1.6 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 31 at St. Louis Scott Gallagher IL · Sat Nov 21 at AFA Fillies · Fri Dec 11 vs St. Louis Scott Gallagher IL See all 3 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 3 | Missouri Rush | 12 | 6 | 1 | 5 | 22 | 20 | +2 | 19 | 1.58 | WLDWL | +0.25 | -0.44 | 100% | 3.5 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Oct 25 vs St. Louis Scott Gallagher IL · Sat Oct 31 at FC United Iowa · Sun Nov 1 at Sporting Iowa See all 4 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 4 | AFA Fillies | 11 | 5 | 1 | 5 | 24 | 20 | +4 | 16 | 1.45 | LWWDL | +0.22 | -0.45 | 100% | 3.5 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Oct 25 vs Kansas City Athletics · Sat Oct 31 at Sporting Iowa · Sun Nov 1 at FC United Iowa See all 5 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 5 | Sporting Iowa | 11 | 2 | 2 | 7 | 19 | 42 | -23 | 8 | 0.73 | DLLLL | +0.61 | -0.64 | 0% | 5.0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 31 vs AFA Fillies · Sun Nov 1 vs Missouri Rush · Sat Nov 7 at FC United Iowa See all 3 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 6 | FC United Iowa | 11 | 0 | 0 | 11 | 5 | 44 | -39 | 0 | 0.00 | LLLLL | +0.79 | -0.22 | 0% | 6.0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 31 vs Missouri Rush · Sun Nov 1 vs AFA Fillies · Sat Nov 7 vs Sporting Iowa See all 3 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.
How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (2.17 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.