St. Louis Scott Gallagher IL

ECNL Regional League Girls · Heartland GU17 · 6 teams · St. Louis Scott Gallagher (all teams)

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1st

7-4-0 record · 11 played

2.27 points per game

+25 goal diff · 39–14

DWWWWlast 5

100% chance of top 4 · expected finish 1.5

-0.97 schedule faced · avg opponent rating

Next game — Sun Oct 25, 05:00 PM

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St. Louis Scott Gallagher IL
1st · 2.27 PPG

Missouri Rush
3rd · 1.58 PPG

Missouri Rush Sports Park, Field 3 ↗ far trip

58% 19% 23%

windrawloss

●●●○○ Toss-up to win

Most likely score 2–1 (expected goals 2.4 for, 1.5 against · 1.92 expected points)

Season so far	St. Louis Scott Gallagher IL	Missouri Rush
Position	1st	3rd
Record (W-D-L)	7-4-0	6-1-5
Points per game	2.27	1.58
Goals for / game	3.5	1.8
Goals against / game	1.3	1.7
Clean sheets	1	2
Held scoreless	0	2
Form (recent first)	W W W W D	L W D L W
Biggest win	9–1 vs Omaha United SC	4–0 vs FC United Iowa
Worst loss	—	0–3 at St. Louis Scott Gallagher MO
Model rating (net goals vs avg)	+1.46	+0.08
Schedule faced (avg opp. rating)	-0.97	+0.25

Already played this season: Sun Aug 23 3–1 vs Missouri Rush (W)

Common opponents: AFA Fillies — we 2–1, 3–2; they 1–2. Sporting Iowa — we 2–2, 7–2; they 2–1. FC United Iowa — we 4–0, 5–1; they 4–0.

Game plan

Swing game — small margins
Win 58% / draw 19% / loss 23%.
Games like this are decided by one set piece or one transition. Prioritise the strongest XI for the full game, be disciplined with fouls near the box, and have a clear late-game plan for both "protect the lead" and "chase".
Away game
Kickoff 05:00 PM at Missouri Rush Sports Park.
Arrive 75 minutes early to see the surface and goal size; plan a longer dynamic warm-up after a drive. Away wins are worth the same 3 points — keep the routine identical to home.

If Sunday goes…

Where we'd sit after the Missouri Rush game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (St. Louis Scott Gallagher IL – Missouri Rush) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 0 other games that week (Mon Oct 19 – Sun Oct 25); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.

Our result	Rivals don't play	Likely results	Every rival wins
– Win · 2.33 PPG	1st— holds	1st— holds	1st— holds
Win 2.33 PPG	1st— holds	1st— holds	1st— holds
Draw 2.17 PPG	2nd▼ down 1	2nd▼ down 1	2nd▼ down 1
Loss 2.08 PPG	2nd▼ down 1	2nd▼ down 1	2nd▼ down 1

Can we move up this round? No. With a 2–1 win we stay 1st even if every rival loses, whatever the rivals do.

Where we finish

2,000 simulated seasons

56% finish 1st

100% top 4

0% below the top 4

1.5 average finish

1st 56%
2nd 41%
3rd 3%
4th
5th
6th

Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.

Climbing the table

Top of the table. The job is to stay there: see the path below for where points are most at risk.

How the results connect

39 chains · 6 teams

Paths of results that link St. Louis Scott Gallagher IL to Missouri Rush through teams both have faced, drawn as one map. Teams sit in columns by how many games away from us they are. Each arrow is one game, pointing away from us, and its colour is the result for the team it starts from. Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain and see its net goal margin.

19 favour us

10 even

10 favour them

+0.9 goals per chain on average. The results point our way.

won lost drew· result for the team the arrow starts from

Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain, or step through them with the arrows. Open full screen and turn your phone to see the whole map.

12 chains

Position over the season

14 game days

The table re-sorted after each date on which a game was played. Shaded band is the top 4.

The path

run-in difficulty +0.97 · 2nd hardest of 6

Date	Opponent	Where	Difficulty	Win	Likely	Exp. pts	Run. PPG	Priority
Sun Oct 25 05:00 PM	Missouri Rush 3rd · 6-1-5 · GD +2	Away far trip Missouri Rush Sports Park	●●●○○ Toss-up	58%	2–1	1.92	2.24	Swing game
Sat Oct 31 10:00 AM	St. Louis Scott Gallagher MO 2nd · 8-1-2 · GD +23	Home Collinsville Soccer Complex	●●●○○ Toss-up	46%	2–2	1.56	2.19	Swing game
Fri Dec 11 07:00 PM	St. Louis Scott Gallagher MO 2nd · 8-1-2 · GD +23	Away far trip WWT Soccer Park	●●●●○ Tough	35%	2–2	1.25	2.12	Upside

"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.

Standings

Team

Pts

PPG

Form

SoS

Run-in

Top 4

Exp. finish

St. Louis Scott Gallagher IL

+25

2.27

DWWWW

-0.97

+0.97

100%

1.5

W	Sun Oct 18	vs	AFA Fillies (4th)	3–2
W	Sun Oct 11	vs	FC United Iowa (6th)	5–1
W	Sat Oct 10	vs	Sporting Iowa (5th)	7–2
W	Fri Oct 9	at	FC United Iowa (6th)	4–0
D	Sun Oct 4	vs	Gretna Elite Academy (—)	2–2
W	Sat Oct 3	vs	Omaha United SC (—)	9–1
D	Sun Sep 20	at	Sporting Iowa (5th)	2–2
W	Thu Sep 10	at	AFA Fillies (4th)	2–1
W	Sun Aug 23	vs	Missouri Rush (3rd)	3–1

Next: Sun Oct 25 at Missouri Rush · Sat Oct 31 vs St. Louis Scott Gallagher MO · Fri Dec 11 at St. Louis Scott Gallagher MO See all 3 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sun Oct 25	at	Missouri Rush (3rd)	2–1	58%
·	Sat Oct 31	vs	St. Louis Scott Gallagher MO (2nd)	2–2	46%
·	Fri Dec 11	at	St. Louis Scott Gallagher MO (2nd)	2–2	35%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

St. Louis Scott Gallagher MO

+23

2.27

WWWDW

-0.94

+1.14

100%

1.6

W	Sun Oct 18	vs	Missouri Rush (3rd)	3–0
D	Wed Oct 14	vs	AFA Fillies (4th)	2–2
W	Sun Oct 11	vs	Sporting Iowa (5th)	4–1
W	Sat Oct 10	vs	FC United Iowa (6th)	5–0
W	Sun Oct 4	vs	Omaha United SC (—)	4–0
L	Sat Oct 3	vs	Gretna Elite Academy (—)	1–2
L	Sat Sep 26	at	Missouri Rush (3rd)	1–2
W	Sun Sep 20	at	FC United Iowa (6th)	6–2
W	Sat Sep 19	at	Sporting Iowa (5th)	5–1

Next: Sat Oct 31 at St. Louis Scott Gallagher IL · Sat Nov 21 at AFA Fillies · Fri Dec 11 vs St. Louis Scott Gallagher IL See all 3 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 31	at	St. Louis Scott Gallagher IL (1st)	2–2	35%
·	Sat Nov 21	at	AFA Fillies (4th)	2–1	50%
·	Fri Dec 11	vs	St. Louis Scott Gallagher IL (1st)	2–2	46%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Missouri Rush

1.58

WLDWL

+0.25

-0.44

100%

3.5

L	Sun Oct 18	at	St. Louis Scott Gallagher MO (2nd)	0–3
W	Sun Oct 11	vs	Sporting Blue Valley (—)	3–0
D	Sat Oct 10	vs	Kansas City Athletics (—)	3–3
L	Sun Sep 27	vs	AFA Fillies (4th)	1–2
W	Sat Sep 26	vs	St. Louis Scott Gallagher MO (2nd)	2–1
L	Sun Sep 20	vs	Kansas Rush Gold (—)	0–2
L	Sat Sep 19	vs	Toca Fusion Elite (—)	2–3
W	Sun Sep 6	vs	Sporting Iowa (5th)	2–1
W	Sat Sep 5	vs	FC United Iowa (6th)	4–0
L	Sun Aug 23	at	St. Louis Scott Gallagher IL (1st)	1–3

Next: Sun Oct 25 vs St. Louis Scott Gallagher IL · Sat Oct 31 at FC United Iowa · Sun Nov 1 at Sporting Iowa See all 4 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sun Oct 25	vs	St. Louis Scott Gallagher IL (1st)	1–2	23%
·	Sat Oct 31	at	FC United Iowa (6th)	2–0	78%
·	Sun Nov 1	at	Sporting Iowa (5th)	2–1	57%
·	Sat Nov 7	at	AFA Fillies (4th)	1–2	27%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

AFA Fillies

1.45

LWWDL

+0.22

-0.45

100%

3.4

L	Sun Oct 18	at	St. Louis Scott Gallagher IL (1st)	2–3
D	Wed Oct 14	at	St. Louis Scott Gallagher MO (2nd)	2–2
W	Sat Oct 10	vs	Sporting Blue Valley (—)	3–1
W	Sun Sep 27	at	Missouri Rush (3rd)	2–1
L	Sun Sep 20	vs	Toca Fusion Elite (—)	1–3
L	Sat Sep 19	vs	Kansas Rush Gold (—)	2–4
L	Thu Sep 10	vs	St. Louis Scott Gallagher IL (1st)	1–2
W	Sun Sep 6	vs	FC United Iowa (6th)	5–0
W	Sat Sep 5	vs	Sporting Iowa (5th)	4–1

Next: Sun Oct 25 vs Kansas City Athletics · Sat Oct 31 at Sporting Iowa · Sun Nov 1 at FC United Iowa See all 5 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sun Oct 25	vs	Kansas City Athletics (—)	2–1	55%
·	Sat Oct 31	at	Sporting Iowa (5th)	3–1	67%
·	Sun Nov 1	at	FC United Iowa (6th)	3–0	85%
·	Sat Nov 7	vs	Missouri Rush (3rd)	2–1	51%
·	Sat Nov 21	vs	St. Louis Scott Gallagher MO (2nd)	1–2	30%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Sporting Iowa

-23

0.73

DLLLL

+0.61

-0.64

5.0

L	Sun Oct 11	at	St. Louis Scott Gallagher MO (2nd)	1–4
L	Sat Oct 10	at	St. Louis Scott Gallagher IL (1st)	2–7
L	Sun Oct 4	vs	Toca Fusion Elite (—)	0–3
L	Sat Oct 3	vs	Kansas Rush Gold (—)	0–11
D	Sun Sep 20	vs	St. Louis Scott Gallagher IL (1st)	2–2
L	Sat Sep 19	vs	St. Louis Scott Gallagher MO (2nd)	1–5
W	Sat Sep 12	vs	FC United Iowa (6th)	3–0
L	Sun Sep 6	at	Missouri Rush (3rd)	1–2
L	Sat Sep 5	at	AFA Fillies (4th)	1–4
D	Sun Aug 23	vs	Gretna Elite Academy (—)	4–4
W	Sat Aug 22	vs	Omaha United SC (—)	4–0

Next: Sat Oct 31 vs AFA Fillies · Sun Nov 1 vs Missouri Rush · Sat Nov 7 at FC United Iowa See all 3 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 31	vs	AFA Fillies (4th)	1–3	18%
·	Sun Nov 1	vs	Missouri Rush (3rd)	1–2	24%
·	Sat Nov 7	at	FC United Iowa (6th)	2–1	65%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

FC United Iowa

-39

0.00

LLLLL

+0.79

-0.22

6.0

L	Sun Oct 11	at	St. Louis Scott Gallagher IL (1st)	1–5
L	Sat Oct 10	at	St. Louis Scott Gallagher MO (2nd)	0–5
L	Fri Oct 9	vs	St. Louis Scott Gallagher IL (1st)	0–4
L	Sun Sep 20	vs	St. Louis Scott Gallagher MO (2nd)	2–6
L	Sat Sep 12	at	Sporting Iowa (5th)	0–3
L	Sun Sep 6	at	AFA Fillies (4th)	0–5
L	Sat Sep 5	at	Missouri Rush (3rd)	0–4
L	Sun Aug 23	vs	Omaha United SC (—)	2–3

Next: Sat Oct 31 vs Missouri Rush · Sun Nov 1 vs AFA Fillies · Sat Nov 7 vs Sporting Iowa See all 3 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 31	vs	Missouri Rush (3rd)	0–2	9%
·	Sun Nov 1	vs	AFA Fillies (4th)	0–3	5%
·	Sat Nov 7	vs	Sporting Iowa (5th)	1–2	18%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.

How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (2.17 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.