St. Louis Scott Gallagher MO
ECNL Regional League Girls · Heartland GU16 · 6 teams · St. Louis Scott Gallagher (all teams)
Next game — Wed Oct 28, 08:00 PM
SLSG Creve Coeur Facility, Field 7 ↗
●○○○○ Favorable to win
Most likely score 3–0 (expected goals 3.7 for, 1.0 against · 2.65 expected points)
| Season so far | St. Louis Scott Gallagher MO | AFA Fillies |
|---|---|---|
| Position | 4th | 6th |
| Record (W-D-L) | 3-2-5 | 1-0-10 |
| Points per game | 1.10 | 0.27 |
| Goals for / game | 2.0 | 0.9 |
| Goals against / game | 1.4 | 4.4 |
| Clean sheets | 3 | 0 |
| Held scoreless | 2 | 6 |
| Form (recent first) | D W L W L | L L L L L |
| Biggest win | 14–0 vs Omaha United SC | — |
| Worst loss | 1–3 vs Gretna Elite Academy | 0–9 vs Kansas Rush Gold |
| Model rating (net goals vs avg) | +0.33 | -1.77 |
| Schedule faced (avg opp. rating) | +0.41 | +0.32 |
Common opponents: Sporting Iowa — we 1–0, 2–0; they 3–4. FC United Iowa — we 0–1, 0–1; they 0–3. Missouri Rush — we 1–1, 1–1; they 1–4.
Game plan
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They leak goals — be greedy
AFA Fillies concede 4.4/game; worst result 0–9 vs Kansas Rush Gold.Commit numbers forward, shoot early and often, and attack second balls. Goal difference is the tiebreaker on PPG, so keep playing to score for the full game — rotate players rather than pace.
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Finishing wins the tight ones
Held scoreless 2 time(s): 0–1 at FC United Iowa, 0–1 vs FC United Iowa.Against a low block, the first goal usually comes from a cross or a cut-back, not a dribble. Get 2–3 bodies in the box on every wide entry and finish practice this week at game speed.
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Expected win — the trap is complacency
Model gives a 85% chance; likely score 3–0.Treat the first 15 minutes like a final: score early, then the game manages itself. This is the ideal game to give rotation players real minutes in the second half without risking points.
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Confidence is low on their side
AFA Fillies have lost 9 straight (form: LLLLL).Teams on losing runs go quiet after conceding. An early goal usually ends the contest — start fast.
If Wednesday goes…
Where we'd sit after the AFA Fillies game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (St. Louis Scott Gallagher MO – AFA Fillies) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 4 other games that week (Mon Oct 26 – Sun Nov 1); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.
| Our result | Rivals don't play | Likely results | Every rival wins |
|---|---|---|---|
| – Win · 1.27 PPG |
4th— holds | 3rd▲ up 1 | 5th▼ down 1 |
| Win 1.27 PPG |
4th— holds | 3rd▲ up 1 | 5th▼ down 1 |
| Draw 1.09 PPG |
4th— holds | 5th▼ down 1 | 5th▼ down 1 |
| Loss 1.00 PPG |
5th▼ down 1 | 5th▼ down 1 | 5th▼ down 1 |
Can we move up this round? Yes. With a 3–0 win we finish as high as 3rd if every rival drops points, and as low as 5th if every rival wins.
Where we finish
2,000 simulated seasons
- 1st
- 2nd 19%
- 3rd 26%
- 4th 47%
- 5th 8%
- 6th
Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.
Climbing the table
What it takes to pass each team above us, from our 4 remaining known games (max 1.64 PPG if we win out).
| # | Team | PPG | Proj. | To pass them |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | FC United Iowa | 2.55 (+1.45) | 1st (2.55) | 25 of 12 pts to pass their current pace, 25 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule |
| 2 | St. Louis Scott Gallagher IL | 1.73 (+0.63) | 2nd (1.62) | 14 of 12 pts to pass their current pace, 12 for their projection |
| 3 | Missouri Rush | 1.33 (+0.23) | 3rd (1.40) | 8 of 12 pts to pass their current pace, 9 for their projection |
How the results connect
38 chains · 6 teams
Paths of results that link St. Louis Scott Gallagher MO to AFA Fillies through teams both have faced, drawn as one map. Teams sit in columns by how many games away from us they are. Each arrow is one game, pointing away from us, and its colour is the result for the team it starts from. Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain and see its net goal margin.
Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain, or step through them with the arrows. Open full screen and turn your phone to see the whole map.
Step through the chains with the arrows, or tap one on the map.
Position over the season
13 game days
The table re-sorted after each date on which a game was played. Shaded band is the top 4.
The path
run-in difficulty -0.78 · 6th hardest of 6
| Date | Opponent | Where | Difficulty | Win | Likely | Exp. pts | Run. PPG | Priority |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wed Oct 28 08:00 PM |
AFA Fillies 6th · 1-0-10 · GD -38 |
Home SLSG Creve Coeur Facility |
●○○○○ Favorable | 85% |
3–0 | 2.65 | 1.24 | Bank it |
| Tue Nov 3 08:00 PM |
St. Louis Scott Gallagher IL 2nd · 6-1-4 · GD +6 |
Away far trip
O'Fallon Sports Park |
●●●●○ Tough | 37% |
1–1 | 1.36 | 1.25 | Upside |
| Sat Nov 21 11:00 AM |
AFA Fillies 6th · 1-0-10 · GD -38 |
Away far trip
Mueller Sports Complex |
●○○○○ Favorable | 78% |
3–1 | 2.47 | 1.34 | Bank it |
| Sat Dec 12 08:00 AM |
St. Louis Scott Gallagher IL 2nd · 6-1-4 · GD +6 |
Home WWT Soccer Park |
●●●○○ Toss-up | 45% |
1–1 | 1.61 | 1.36 | Swing game |
"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.
Standings
| # | Team | GP | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | PPG | Form | SoS | Run-in | Top 4 | Exp. finish | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| 1 | FC United Iowa | 11 | 9 | 1 | 1 | 28 | 9 | +19 | 28 | 2.55 | WWWWW | -0.06 | -0.59 | 100% | 1.0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 31 vs Missouri Rush · Sun Nov 1 vs AFA Fillies · Sat Nov 7 vs Sporting Iowa See all 3 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 2 | St. Louis Scott Gallagher IL | 11 | 6 | 1 | 4 | 21 | 15 | +6 | 19 | 1.73 | LLWLW | -0.20 | +0.34 | 100% | 2.4 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Oct 25 at Missouri Rush · Tue Nov 3 vs St. Louis Scott Gallagher MO · Sat Dec 12 at St. Louis Scott Gallagher MO See all 3 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 3 | Missouri Rush | 12 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 24 | 20 | +4 | 16 | 1.33 | DWLDD | -0.02 | -0.17 | 88% | 3.4 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Oct 25 vs St. Louis Scott Gallagher IL · Sat Oct 31 at FC United Iowa · Sun Nov 1 at Sporting Iowa See all 4 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 4 | St. Louis Scott Gallagher MO | 10 | 3 | 2 | 5 | 20 | 14 | +6 | 11 | 1.10 | LWLWD | +0.41 | -0.78 | 92% | 3.4 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Wed Oct 28 vs AFA Fillies · Tue Nov 3 at St. Louis Scott Gallagher IL · Sat Nov 21 at AFA Fillies See all 4 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 5 | Sporting Iowa | 11 | 4 | 0 | 7 | 21 | 17 | +4 | 12 | 1.09 | LLWLL | +0.14 | -0.07 | 20% | 4.8 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 31 vs AFA Fillies · Sun Nov 1 vs Missouri Rush · Sat Nov 7 at FC United Iowa See all 3 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 6 | AFA Fillies | 11 | 1 | 0 | 10 | 10 | 48 | -38 | 3 | 0.27 | LLLLL | +0.32 | +0.38 | 0% | 6.0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Wed Oct 28 at St. Louis Scott Gallagher MO · Sat Oct 31 at Sporting Iowa · Sun Nov 1 at FC United Iowa See all 5 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.
How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (1.22 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.