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Sporting Iowa

ECNL Regional League Girls · Heartland GU16 · 6 teams · Sporting Iowa Central (all teams)

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5th
4-0-7 record · 11 played
1.09 points per game
+4 goal diff · 21–17
LLWLLlast 5
19% chance of top 4 · expected finish 4.8
+0.14 schedule faced · avg opponent rating

Next game — Sat Oct 31, 11:00 AM

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Sporting Iowa
5th · 1.09 PPG
vs
AFA Fillies
6th · 0.27 PPG

Hy-Vee Multiplex, Green #1 ↗

windrawloss

●●○○○ Lean win to win

Most likely score 3–1 (expected goals 3.1 for, 1.4 against · 2.30 expected points)

Season so farSporting IowaAFA Fillies
Position5th6th
Record (W-D-L)4-0-71-0-10
Points per game1.090.27
Goals for / game1.90.9
Goals against / game1.54.4
Clean sheets20
Held scoreless66
Form (recent first)L L W L LL L L L L
Biggest win11–0 vs Omaha United SC—
Worst loss0–3 at Missouri Rush0–9 vs Kansas Rush Gold
Model rating (net goals vs avg)-0.33-1.77
Schedule faced (avg opp. rating)+0.14+0.32

Already played this season: Sat Sep 5 4–3 at AFA Fillies (W)

Common opponents: Missouri Rush — we 0–3; they 1–4. FC United Iowa — we 0–1; they 0–3. St. Louis Scott Gallagher IL — we 0–1, 0–2; they 3–4, 0–1. Kansas Rush Gold — we 1–3; they 0–9. Toca Fusion Elite — we 2–1; they 0–2.

Game plan

  • They leak goals — be greedy
    AFA Fillies concede 4.4/game; worst result 0–9 vs Kansas Rush Gold.

    Commit numbers forward, shoot early and often, and attack second balls. Goal difference is the tiebreaker on PPG, so keep playing to score for the full game — rotate players rather than pace.

  • Finishing wins the tight ones
    Held scoreless 6 time(s): 0–3 at Missouri Rush, 0–1 vs FC United Iowa, 0–1 vs St. Louis Scott Gallagher MO, 0–1 vs St. Louis Scott Gallagher IL, 0–2 at St. Louis Scott Gallagher IL, 0–2 at St. Louis Scott Gallagher MO.

    Against a low block, the first goal usually comes from a cross or a cut-back, not a dribble. Get 2–3 bodies in the box on every wide entry and finish practice this week at game speed.

  • Expected win — the trap is complacency
    Model gives a 72% chance; likely score 3–1.

    Treat the first 15 minutes like a final: score early, then the game manages itself. This is the ideal game to give rotation players real minutes in the second half without risking points.

  • Confidence is low on their side
    AFA Fillies have lost 9 straight (form: LLLLL).

    Teams on losing runs go quiet after conceding. An early goal usually ends the contest — start fast.

  • What a win does
    St. Louis Scott Gallagher MO sit 4th on 1.10 PPG; we are on 1.09.

    A point moves us above St. Louis Scott Gallagher MO on PPG (if they don't play). GD is the next tiebreak, so every goal matters — keep attacking with a lead.

If Saturday goes…

Where we'd sit after the AFA Fillies game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (Sporting Iowa – AFA Fillies) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 3 other games that week (Mon Oct 26 – Sun Nov 1); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.

Our resultRivals don't playLikely resultsEvery rival wins
–
Win · 1.25 PPG		 4th▲ up 1 4th▲ up 1 5th— holds
Win
1.25 PPG		 4th▲ up 1 4th▲ up 1 5th— holds
Draw
1.08 PPG		 5th— holds 5th— holds 5th— holds
Loss
1.00 PPG		 5th— holds 5th— holds 5th— holds

Can we move up this round? Yes. With a 3–1 win we finish as high as 3rd if every rival drops points, and as low as 5th if every rival wins.

Where we finish

2,000 simulated seasons

0% finish 1st
19% top 4
81% below the top 4
4.8 average finish
  1. 1st
  2. 2nd <1%
  3. 3rd 5%
  4. 4th 14%
  5. 5th 81%
  6. 6th

Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.

Climbing the table

What it takes to pass each team above us, from our 3 remaining known games (max 1.50 PPG if we win out).

#TeamPPGProj.To pass them
1 FC United Iowa 2.55 (+1.46) 1st (2.55) 24 of 9 pts to pass their current pace, 24 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule
2 St. Louis Scott Gallagher IL 1.73 (+0.64) 2nd (1.62) 13 of 9 pts to pass their current pace, 11 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule
3 Missouri Rush 1.33 (+0.24) 3rd (1.40) 7 of 9 pts to pass their current pace, 8 for their projection
4 St. Louis Scott Gallagher MO 1.10 (+0.01) 4th (1.36) A point next game

How the results connect

29 chains · 6 teams

Paths of results that link Sporting Iowa to AFA Fillies through teams both have faced, drawn as one map. Teams sit in columns by how many games away from us they are. Each arrow is one game, pointing away from us, and its colour is the result for the team it starts from. Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain and see its net goal margin.

15 favour us
7 even
7 favour them
+0.6 goals per chain on average. The results point our way.
won lost drew· result for the team the arrow starts from
4–3 0–1 4–3 1–0 0–3 4–1 0–2 0–1 3–0 0–2 0–1 0–1 0–2 0–0 1–1 Sporting Iowa 5th St. Louis Scott Gal… 2nd Missouri Rush 3rd FC United Iowa 1st St. Louis Scott Gal… 4th AFA Fillies 6th

Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain, or step through them with the arrows. Open full screen and turn your phone to see the whole map.

12 chains

Position over the season

13 game days

1st 3rd 6th Aug 23 Sep 10 Sep 20 Oct 9 Oct 18

The table re-sorted after each date on which a game was played. Shaded band is the top 4.

The path

run-in difficulty -0.07 · 3rd hardest of 6

DateOpponentWhereDifficultyWinLikelyExp. ptsRun. PPGPriority
Sat Oct 31
11:00 AM		 AFA Fillies
6th · 1-0-10 · GD -38		 Home
Hy-Vee Multiplex		 ●●○○○ Lean win
72%		 3–1 2.30 1.19 Bank it
Sun Nov 1
12:00 PM		 Missouri Rush
3rd · 4-4-4 · GD +4		 Home
Hy-Vee Multiplex		 ●●●●○ Tough
27%		 1–1 1.03 1.18 Upside
Sat Nov 7
12:00 PM		 FC United Iowa
1st · 9-1-1 · GD +19		 Away far trip
Tuma Soccer Complex		 ●●●●● Very tough
7%		 0–2 0.34 1.12 Upside

"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.

Standings

#TeamGPWDLGFGAGDPtsPPGFormSoSRun-inTop 4Exp. finish
1 FC United Iowa 11911 289+19 282.55 WWWWW -0.06 -0.59 100% 1.0
2 St. Louis Scott Gallagher IL 11614 2115+6 191.73 LLWLW -0.20 +0.34 100% 2.5
3 Missouri Rush 12444 2420+4 161.33 DWLDD -0.02 -0.17 91% 3.3
4 St. Louis Scott Gallagher MO 10325 2014+6 111.10 LWLWD +0.41 -0.78 90% 3.5
5 Sporting Iowa 11407 2117+4 121.09 LLWLL +0.14 -0.07 19% 4.8
6 AFA Fillies 111010 1048-38 30.27 LLLLL +0.32 +0.38 0% 6.0

Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.

How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (1.22 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.