Sporting Blue Valley
ECNL Regional League Girls · Heartland GU15 · 6 teams · Sporting Blue Valley (all teams)
Next game — Sat Oct 24, 01:00 PM
Compass Minerals Sporting Fields, Field 3 ↗ far trip
●○○○○ Favorable to win
Most likely score 3–1 (expected goals 3.2 for, 1.1 against · 2.46 expected points)
| Season so far | Sporting Blue Valley | Toca Fusion Elite |
|---|---|---|
| Position | 3rd | 4th |
| Record (W-D-L) | 6-4-1 | 3-2-4 |
| Points per game | 2.00 | 1.22 |
| Goals for / game | 2.9 | 1.2 |
| Goals against / game | 1.0 | 2.2 |
| Clean sheets | 2 | 1 |
| Held scoreless | 2 | 1 |
| Form (recent first) | W W D W D | D D W L L |
| Biggest win | 7–1 vs Toca Fusion Elite | 2–0 vs FC United Iowa |
| Worst loss | 0–3 vs Kansas City Athletics | 1–7 at Sporting Blue Valley |
| Model rating (net goals vs avg) | +1.33 | -1.01 |
| Schedule faced (avg opp. rating) | -0.60 | +0.29 |
Already played this season: Sat Sep 12 7–1 vs Toca Fusion Elite (W)
Common opponents: Kansas City Athletics — we 0–3; they 1–3. Omaha United SC — we 1–1, 5–1; they 1–1. Gretna Elite Academy — we 5–0, 5–1; they 2–2. Kansas Rush Gold — we 2–2; they 0–4.
Game plan
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Finishing wins the tight ones
Held scoreless 2 time(s): 0–3 vs Kansas City Athletics, 0–0 vs St. Louis Scott Gallagher MO.Against a low block, the first goal usually comes from a cross or a cut-back, not a dribble. Get 2–3 bodies in the box on every wide entry and finish practice this week at game speed.
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Expected win — the trap is complacency
Model gives a 78% chance; likely score 3–1.Treat the first 15 minutes like a final: score early, then the game manages itself. This is the ideal game to give rotation players real minutes in the second half without risking points.
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Away game
Kickoff 01:00 PM at Compass Minerals Sporting Fields.Arrive 75 minutes early to see the surface and goal size; plan a longer dynamic warm-up after a drive. Away wins are worth the same 3 points — keep the routine identical to home.
If Saturday goes…
Where we'd sit after the Toca Fusion Elite game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (Sporting Blue Valley – Toca Fusion Elite) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 1 other games that week (Mon Oct 19 – Sun Oct 25); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.
| Our result | Rivals don't play | Likely results | Every rival wins |
|---|---|---|---|
| – Win · 2.08 PPG |
3rd— holds | 3rd— holds | 3rd— holds |
| Win 2.08 PPG |
3rd— holds | 3rd— holds | 3rd— holds |
| Draw 1.92 PPG |
3rd— holds | 3rd— holds | 3rd— holds |
| Loss 1.83 PPG |
3rd— holds | 3rd— holds | 3rd— holds |
Can we move up this round? No. With a 3–1 win we stay 3rd even if every rival loses, whatever the rivals do.
Where we finish
2,000 simulated seasons
- 1st
- 2nd 1%
- 3rd 99%
- 4th <1%
- 5th
- 6th
Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.
Climbing the table
What it takes to pass each team above us, from our 5 remaining known games (max 2.31 PPG if we win out).
| # | Team | PPG | Proj. | To pass them |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Kansas City Athletics | 2.80 (+0.80) | 1st (2.57) | 23 of 15 pts to pass their current pace, 20 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule |
| 2 | Kansas Rush Gold | 2.75 (+0.75) | 2nd (2.49) | 22 of 15 pts to pass their current pace, 18 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule |
How the results connect
29 chains · 6 teams
Paths of results that link Sporting Blue Valley to Toca Fusion Elite through teams both have faced, drawn as one map. Teams sit in columns by how many games away from us they are. Each arrow is one game, pointing away from us, and its colour is the result for the team it starts from. Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain and see its net goal margin.
Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain, or step through them with the arrows. Open full screen and turn your phone to see the whole map.
Step through the chains with the arrows, or tap one on the map.
Position over the season
12 game days
The table re-sorted after each date on which a game was played. Shaded band is the top 4.
The path
run-in difficulty +0.64 · 2nd hardest of 6
| Date | Opponent | Where | Difficulty | Win | Likely | Exp. pts | Run. PPG | Priority |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat Oct 24 01:00 PM |
Toca Fusion Elite 4th · 3-2-4 · GD -9 |
Away far trip
Compass Minerals Sporting Fields |
●○○○○ Favorable | 78% |
3–1 | 2.46 | 2.04 | Bank it |
| Sun Oct 25 04:30 PM |
Kansas Rush Gold 2nd · 7-1-0 · GD +32 |
Home Scheels Overland Park Soccer Complex |
●●●●○ Tough | 29% |
1–2 | 1.08 | 1.96 | Upside |
| Sat Nov 21 05:00 PM |
FC United Iowa |
Home Paragon Star |
●●○○○ Lean win | 70% |
3–1 | 2.26 | 1.99 | Bank it |
| Sun Nov 22 TBD |
Sporting Iowa |
Home |
●●○○○ Lean win | 70% |
3–1 | 2.26 | 2.00 | Bank it |
| Sat Dec 5 11:00 AM |
Kansas City Athletics 1st · 9-1-0 · GD +31 |
Away far trip
Paragon Star Soccer Complex |
●●●●● Very tough | 18% |
1–2 | 0.74 | 1.92 | Upside |
"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.
Standings
| # | Team | GP | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | PPG | Form | SoS | Run-in | Top 4 | Exp. finish | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| 1 | Kansas City Athletics | 10 | 9 | 1 | 0 | 34 | 3 | +31 | 28 | 2.80 | WWWWW | -1.16 | +0.76 | 100% | 1.5 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 at Kansas Rush Gold · Sat Oct 31 vs Toca Fusion Elite · Sun Nov 1 vs Kansas Rush Gold See all 6 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 2 | Kansas Rush Gold | 8 | 7 | 1 | 0 | 36 | 4 | +32 | 22 | 2.75 | WDWWW | -0.79 | +0.13 | 100% | 1.5 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 vs Kansas City Athletics · Sun Oct 25 at Sporting Blue Valley · Sun Nov 1 at Kansas City Athletics See all 8 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 3 | Sporting Blue Valley | 11 | 6 | 4 | 1 | 32 | 11 | +21 | 22 | 2.00 | DWDWW | -0.60 | +0.64 | 100% | 3.0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 at Toca Fusion Elite · Sun Oct 25 vs Kansas Rush Gold · Sat Nov 21 vs FC United Iowa See all 5 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 4 | Toca Fusion Elite | 9 | 3 | 2 | 4 | 11 | 20 | -9 | 11 | 1.22 | LLWDD | +0.29 | +0.31 | 80% | 4.2 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 vs Sporting Blue Valley · Sat Oct 31 at Kansas City Athletics · Sat Nov 7 vs St. Louis Scott Gallagher MO See all 7 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 5 | Gretna Elite Academy | 13 | 2 | 4 | 7 | 15 | 34 | -19 | 10 | 0.77 | LDLLL | +0.88 | -0.36 | 20% | 4.8 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Nov 7 at Omaha United SC · Sat Nov 21 vs Kansas Rush Gold · Sun Nov 22 vs Toca Fusion Elite See all 3 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 6 | Omaha United SC | 13 | 1 | 3 | 9 | 6 | 48 | -42 | 6 | 0.46 | LLDLL | +1.00 | -0.02 | 0% | 6.0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Nov 7 vs Gretna Elite Academy · Sat Nov 21 vs Toca Fusion Elite · Sun Nov 22 vs Kansas Rush Gold See all 3 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.
How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (2.05 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.