Nationals SC-Union GMA
ECNL Regional League Girls · GMA GU18/19 · 12 teams · Nationals (all teams)
Next game — Sat Oct 24, 04:00 PM
Oakland University Dome, Dome ↗
●○○○○ Favorable to win
Most likely score 4–0 (expected goals 4.3 for, 1.0 against · 2.76 expected points)
| Season so far | Nationals SC-Union GMA | Plymouth Reign |
|---|---|---|
| Position | 3rd | 10th |
| Record (W-D-L) | 5-0-2 | 1-0-4 |
| Points per game | 2.14 | 0.60 |
| Goals for / game | 3.0 | 1.0 |
| Goals against / game | 1.3 | 4.0 |
| Clean sheets | 2 | 1 |
| Held scoreless | 0 | 3 |
| Form (recent first) | W L L W W | W L L L L |
| Biggest win | 6–2 vs Nationals SC-CA GMA | 4–0 at Liverpool FC MI GMA |
| Worst loss | 1–2 vs Michigan Burn | 0–11 vs Michigan Rangers FC |
| Model rating (net goals vs avg) | +1.00 | -1.97 |
| Schedule faced (avg opp. rating) | -0.42 | -0.47 |
Common opponents: Nationals SC-CA GMA — we 6–2; they 1–3. TKO Premier SC — we 3–1; they 0–3. Liverpool FC MI GMA — we 3–0; they 4–0.
Game plan
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They struggle to score
Plymouth Reign average 1.0 goals/game (league avg 2.2); blanked in 3 of 5.A higher defensive line and an aggressive counter-press are low-risk here. Keep the back line connected to midfield so one long ball doesn't turn into a 1v1 — that is the only way this opponent scores.
-
They leak goals — be greedy
Plymouth Reign concede 4.0/game; worst result 0–11 vs Michigan Rangers FC.Commit numbers forward, shoot early and often, and attack second balls. Goal difference is the tiebreaker on PPG, so keep playing to score for the full game — rotate players rather than pace.
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Expected win — the trap is complacency
Model gives a 90% chance; likely score 4–0.Treat the first 15 minutes like a final: score early, then the game manages itself. This is the ideal game to give rotation players real minutes in the second half without risking points.
If Saturday goes…
Where we'd sit after the Plymouth Reign game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (Nationals SC-Union GMA – Plymouth Reign) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 6 other games that week (Mon Oct 19 – Sun Oct 25); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.
| Our result | Rivals don't play | Likely results | Every rival wins |
|---|---|---|---|
| – Win · 2.25 PPG |
3rd— holds | 3rd— holds | 4th▼ down 1 |
| Win 2.25 PPG |
3rd— holds | 3rd— holds | 4th▼ down 1 |
| Draw 2.00 PPG |
3rd— holds | 4th▼ down 1 | 4th▼ down 1 |
| Loss 1.88 PPG |
5th▼ down 2 | 5th▼ down 2 | 6th▼ down 3 |
Can we move up this round? Yes. With a 4–0 win we finish as high as 2nd if every rival drops points, and as low as 4th if every rival wins.
Where we finish
2,000 simulated seasons
- 1st <1%
- 2nd 6%
- 3rd 26%
- 4th 30%
- 5th 24%
- 6th 12%
- 7th 2%
- 8th
- 9th
- 10th
- 11th
- 12th
Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.
Climbing the table
What it takes to pass each team above us, from our 4 remaining known games (max 2.45 PPG if we win out).
| # | Team | PPG | Proj. | To pass them |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Cap City Athletic 1847 | 3.00 (+0.86) | 1st (2.63) | 18 of 12 pts to pass their current pace, 14 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule |
| 2 | Michigan Rangers FC | 2.50 (+0.36) | 2nd (2.39) | 13 of 12 pts to pass their current pace, 12 for their projection |
How the results connect
19 chains · 10 teams
Paths of results that link Nationals SC-Union GMA to Plymouth Reign through teams both have faced, drawn as one map. Teams sit in columns by how many games away from us they are. Each arrow is one game, pointing away from us, and its colour is the result for the team it starts from. Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain and see its net goal margin.
Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain, or step through them with the arrows. Open full screen and turn your phone to see the whole map.
Step through the chains with the arrows, or tap one on the map.
Position over the season
15 game days
The table re-sorted after each date on which a game was played. Shaded band is the top 4.
The path
run-in difficulty +0.75 · 3rd hardest of 12
| Date | Opponent | Where | Difficulty | Win | Likely | Exp. pts | Run. PPG | Priority |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat Oct 24 04:00 PM |
Plymouth Reign 10th · 1-0-4 · GD -15 |
Home Oakland University Dome |
●○○○○ Favorable | 90% |
4–0 | 2.76 | 2.22 | Bank it |
| Sat Oct 31 01:00 PM |
Detroit City FC West 4th · 4-0-2 · GD +9 |
Home Oakland University Upper Fields |
●●●○○ Toss-up | 48% |
2–1 | 1.64 | 2.16 | Swing game |
| Sun Nov 1 05:30 PM |
Michigan Rangers FC 2nd · 5-0-1 · GD +33 |
Home Evolution Sportsplex |
●●●●● Very tough | 18% |
1–3 | 0.69 | 2.01 | Upside |
| Sat Nov 7 11:00 AM |
Portage SC 6th · 4-3-1 · GD +10 |
Away far trip
Capital Area Sports Plex |
●●●●○ Tough | 27% |
1–1 | 1.07 | 1.92 | Upside |
"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.
Standings
| # | Team | GP | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | PPG | Form | SoS | Run-in | Top 4 | Exp. finish | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| 1 | Cap City Athletic 1847 | 6 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 29 | 3 | +26 | 18 | 3.00 | WWWWW | -0.83 | +0.64 | 100% | 1.4 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 at Michigan Rangers FC · Sun Oct 25 vs Michigan Burn · Tue Oct 27 at Legends FC See all 5 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 2 | Michigan Rangers FC | 6 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 37 | 4 | +33 | 15 | 2.50 | WWWWW | -1.18 | +0.86 | 99% | 1.8 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 vs Cap City Athletic 1847 · Sun Oct 25 at TKO Premier SC · Sun Nov 1 at Nationals SC-Union GMA See all 5 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 3 | Nationals SC-Union GMA | 7 | 5 | 0 | 2 | 21 | 9 | +12 | 15 | 2.14 | WWLLW | -0.42 | +0.75 | 62% | 4.2 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 vs Plymouth Reign · Sat Oct 31 vs Detroit City FC West · Sun Nov 1 vs Michigan Rangers FC See all 4 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 4 | Detroit City FC West | 6 | 4 | 0 | 2 | 17 | 8 | +9 | 12 | 2.00 | WWLWW | -0.54 | +0.55 | 27% | 5.3 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Mon Oct 26 vs Plymouth Reign · Sat Oct 31 at Nationals SC-Union GMA · Sun Nov 1 at Michigan Burn See all 5 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 5 | Michigan Burn | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 11 | 5 | +6 | 10 | 2.00 | DWWLW | -1.05 | +0.79 | 16% | 5.8 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 17 at TKO Premier SC · Sat Oct 24 vs Legends FC · Sun Oct 25 at Cap City Athletic 1847 See all 6 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 6 | Portage SC | 8 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 14 | 4 | +10 | 15 | 1.88 | WWLDD | +0.52 | -1.60 | 87% | 3.5 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Oct 25 vs Nationals SC-CA GMA · Sat Oct 31 vs Liverpool FC MI GMA · Sat Nov 7 vs Nationals SC-Union GMA See all 3 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 7 | Legends FC | 4 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 9 | 5 | +4 | 5 | 1.25 | DWDL | +0.15 | -0.10 | 9% | 6.3 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 at Michigan Burn · Tue Oct 27 vs Cap City Athletic 1847 · Sun Nov 1 at Nationals SC-CA GMA See all 7 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 8 | Liverpool FC-IA Michigan NO G 09/08 GMA | 9 | 3 | 1 | 5 | 14 | 29 | -15 | 10 | 1.11 | DLWLW | +0.35 | -1.97 | 0% | 8.1 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Oct 25 vs Plymouth Reign See all 1 future matchup ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 9 | TKO Premier SC | 6 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 8 | 14 | -6 | 4 | 0.67 | WLLLD | +0.70 | -0.52 | 0% | 8.7 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 17 vs Michigan Burn · Sun Oct 25 vs Michigan Rangers FC · Sat Oct 31 vs Nationals SC-CA GMA See all 4 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 10 | Plymouth Reign | 5 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 5 | 20 | -15 | 3 | 0.60 | LLLLW | -0.47 | +0.74 | 0% | 10.7 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 at Nationals SC-Union GMA · Sun Oct 25 at Liverpool FC-IA Michigan NO G 09/08 GMA · Mon Oct 26 at Detroit City FC West See all 6 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 11 | Nationals SC-CA GMA | 7 | 1 | 0 | 6 | 9 | 36 | -27 | 3 | 0.43 | LLWLL | +0.72 | -0.57 | 0% | 10.2 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Oct 25 at Portage SC · Sat Oct 31 at TKO Premier SC · Sun Nov 1 vs Legends FC See all 4 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 12 | Liverpool FC MI GMA | 7 | 0 | 0 | 7 | 2 | 39 | -37 | 0 | 0.00 | LLLLL | +0.61 | -0.30 | 0% | 12.0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 31 at Portage SC · Sun Nov 1 at TKO Premier SC · Sun Nov 15 at Nationals SC-CA GMA See all 4 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.
How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (2.22 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.