Michigan Burn

ECNL Regional League Girls · GMA GU16 · 12 teams · Michigan Burn (all teams)

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1st

5-0-0 record · 5 played

3.00 points per game

+19 goal diff · 20–1

WWWWWlast 5

100% chance of top 4 · expected finish 1.4

-0.80 schedule faced · avg opponent rating

Next game — Sat Oct 24, 01:00 PM

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Michigan Burn
1st · 3.00 PPG

Legends FC
2nd · 3.00 PPG

Anchor Bay High School, Stadium ↗ · turf?

50% 23% 27%

windrawloss

●●●○○ Toss-up to win

Most likely score 1–1 (expected goals 1.8 for, 1.3 against · 1.73 expected points)

Season so far	Michigan Burn	Legends FC
Position	1st	2nd
Record (W-D-L)	5-0-0	3-0-0
Points per game	3.00	3.00
Goals for / game	4.0	4.0
Goals against / game	0.2	0.0
Clean sheets	4	3
Held scoreless	0	0
Form (recent first)	W W W W W	W W W
Biggest win	6–0 at Liverpool FC MI GMA	7–0 vs TKO Premier SC
Worst loss	—	—
Model rating (net goals vs avg)	+2.27	+1.84
Schedule faced (avg opp. rating)	-0.80	-0.66

Common opponents: Portage SC — we 2–1; they 2–0. Liverpool FC-IA Michigan NO G 10/11 GMA — we 6–0; they 3–0. TKO Premier SC — we 5–0; they 7–0.

Game plan

Respect their attack
Legends FC score 4.0/game — well above the league's 2.0.
Deny the easy goals first: compact shape between the lines, no fouls in shooting range, and a plan for their best outlet. Score first and make them chase.
Hard to break down
Legends FC concede only 0.0/game with 3 clean sheet(s).
Patience and width: move the ball quickly side to side to pull the block apart, and treat set pieces as your best chance — rehearse two corner routines and a near-post free-kick delivery.
Swing game — small margins
Win 50% / draw 23% / loss 27%.
Games like this are decided by one set piece or one transition. Prioritise the strongest XI for the full game, be disciplined with fouls near the box, and have a clear late-game plan for both "protect the lead" and "chase".
They arrive in form
Legends FC have won 3 straight.
Don't let them settle: deny the first 10 minutes of rhythm with pressure on their first pass out of the back.

If Saturday goes…

Where we'd sit after the Legends FC game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (Michigan Burn – Legends FC) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 6 other games that week (Mon Oct 19 – Sun Oct 25); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.

Our result	Rivals don't play	Likely results	Every rival wins
– Draw · 2.67 PPG	1st— holds	1st— holds	1st— holds
Win 3.00 PPG	1st— holds	1st— holds	1st— holds
Draw 2.67 PPG	1st— holds	1st— holds	1st— holds
Loss 2.50 PPG	2nd▼ down 1	2nd▼ down 1	2nd▼ down 1

Can we move up this round? No. With a 1–1 draw we stay 1st even if every rival loses, whatever the rivals do.

Where we finish

2,000 simulated seasons

72% finish 1st

100% top 4

0% below the top 4

1.4 average finish

1st 72%
2nd 21%
3rd 6%
4th 2%
5th <1%
6th
7th
8th
9th
10th
11th
12th

Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.

Climbing the table

Top of the table. The job is to stay there: see the path below for where points are most at risk.

How the results connect

8 chains · 7 teams

Paths of results that link Michigan Burn to Legends FC through teams both have faced, drawn as one map. Teams sit in columns by how many games away from us they are. Each arrow is one game, pointing away from us, and its colour is the result for the team it starts from. Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain and see its net goal margin.

3 favour us

1 even

4 favour them

-0.6 goals per chain on average. The results point their way.

won lost drew· result for the team the arrow starts from

Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain, or step through them with the arrows. Open full screen and turn your phone to see the whole map.

8 chains

Position over the season

15 game days

The table re-sorted after each date on which a game was played. Shaded band is the top 4.

The path

run-in difficulty +0.33 · 6th hardest of 12

Date	Opponent	Where	Difficulty	Win	Likely	Exp. pts	Run. PPG	Priority
Sat Oct 24 01:00 PM	Legends FC 2nd · 3-0-0 · GD +12	Home Anchor Bay High School · turf?	●●●○○ Toss-up	50%	1–1	1.73	2.79	Swing game
Sun Oct 25 11:00 AM	Cap City Athletic 1847 8th · 3-0-3 · GD -1	Away far trip East Lansing Soccer Complex	●○○○○ Favorable	80%	3–0	2.52	2.75	Bank it
Tue Oct 27 06:30 PM	Nationals SC-CA GMA 3rd · 4-2-0 · GD +20	Home L'Anse Creuse High School North	●●●○○ Toss-up	52%	2–1	1.77	2.63	Swing game
Sat Oct 31 11:00 AM	Plymouth Reign 7th · 3-0-3 · GD +3	Home The Sports Academy · turf	●○○○○ Favorable	82%	3–0	2.58	2.62	Bank it
Sun Nov 1 11:30 AM	Detroit City FC West 5th · 4-2-1 · GD +14	Home The Sports Academy · turf	●●○○○ Lean win	70%	2–1	2.26	2.59	Bank it
Sat Nov 7 12:00 PM	Michigan Rangers FC 10th · 1-0-4 · GD -23	Home The Sports Academy · turf	●○○○○ Favorable	99%	6–0	2.98	2.62	Bank it

"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.

Standings

Team

Pts

PPG

Form

SoS

Run-in

Top 4

Exp. finish

Michigan Burn

+19

3.00

WWWWW

-0.80

+0.33

100%

1.4

W	Sat Oct 17	at	TKO Premier SC (9th)	5–0
W	Sun Oct 11	at	Liverpool FC-IA Michigan NO G 10/11 GMA (11th)	6–0
W	Sat Oct 10	at	Liverpool FC MI GMA (12th)	6–0
W	Thu Sep 24	at	Nationals SC-Union GMA (4th)	1–0
W	Sat Sep 19	at	Portage SC (6th)	2–1

Next: Sat Oct 24 vs Legends FC · Sun Oct 25 at Cap City Athletic 1847 · Tue Oct 27 vs Nationals SC-CA GMA See all 6 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 24	vs	Legends FC (2nd)	1–1	50%
·	Sun Oct 25	at	Cap City Athletic 1847 (8th)	3–0	80%
·	Tue Oct 27	vs	Nationals SC-CA GMA (3rd)	2–1	52%
·	Sat Oct 31	vs	Plymouth Reign (7th)	3–0	82%
·	Sun Nov 1	vs	Detroit City FC West (5th)	2–1	70%
·	Sat Nov 7	vs	Michigan Rangers FC (10th)	6–0	99%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Legends FC

+12

3.00

WWW

-0.66

+0.11

94%

2.4

W	Sun Oct 11	vs	Portage SC (6th)	2–0
W	Sat Oct 10	vs	TKO Premier SC (9th)	7–0
W	Sun Sep 27	at	Liverpool FC-IA Michigan NO G 10/11 GMA (11th)	3–0

Next: Sat Oct 24 at Michigan Burn · Sun Oct 25 at Nationals SC-Union GMA · Tue Oct 27 vs Cap City Athletic 1847 See all 8 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 24	at	Michigan Burn (1st)	1–1	27%
·	Sun Oct 25	at	Nationals SC-Union GMA (4th)	1–1	50%
·	Tue Oct 27	vs	Cap City Athletic 1847 (8th)	3–0	81%
·	Sun Nov 1	at	Nationals SC-CA GMA (3rd)	1–1	35%
·	Sat Nov 7	vs	Detroit City FC West (5th)	2–1	63%
·	Sun Nov 8	vs	Plymouth Reign (7th)	2–1	76%
·	Sun Nov 22	at	Michigan Rangers FC (10th)	5–0	97%
·	Sun Dec 6	at	Liverpool FC MI GMA (12th)	4–0	95%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Nationals SC-CA GMA

+20

2.33

WWWDW

-0.47

+0.30

92%

2.9

W	Sat Oct 17	vs	Cap City Athletic 1847 (8th)	2–0
D	Sun Oct 11	at	Detroit City FC West (5th)	2–2
W	Sat Oct 10	at	Plymouth Reign (7th)	2–1
W	Mon Sep 28	vs	Liverpool FC-IA Michigan NO G 10/11 GMA (11th)	5–0
W	Sun Sep 27	vs	Michigan Rangers FC (10th)	12–0
D	Sat Aug 29	at	Nationals SC-Union GMA (4th)	1–1

Next: Sat Oct 24 at Portage SC · Tue Oct 27 at Michigan Burn · Sat Oct 31 at TKO Premier SC See all 5 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 24	at	Portage SC (6th)	2–1	55%
·	Tue Oct 27	at	Michigan Burn (1st)	1–2	27%
·	Sat Oct 31	at	TKO Premier SC (9th)	3–0	90%
·	Sun Nov 1	vs	Legends FC (2nd)	1–1	43%
·	Sun Nov 15	vs	Liverpool FC MI GMA (12th)	5–0	97%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Nationals SC-Union GMA

2.17

WLWWW

-0.33

+0.26

45%

4.6

W	Sun Oct 18	vs	Cap City Athletic 1847 (8th)	2–1
W	Sun Oct 11	at	Liverpool FC MI GMA (12th)	3–0
W	Sat Oct 10	at	Liverpool FC-IA Michigan NO G 10/11 GMA (11th)	3–1
L	Thu Sep 24	vs	Michigan Burn (1st)	0–1
W	Sat Sep 19	at	TKO Premier SC (9th)	2–0
D	Sat Aug 29	vs	Nationals SC-CA GMA (3rd)	1–1

Next: Sat Oct 24 vs Plymouth Reign · Sun Oct 25 vs Legends FC · Sat Oct 31 vs Detroit City FC West See all 5 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 24	vs	Plymouth Reign (7th)	1–1	55%
·	Sun Oct 25	vs	Legends FC (2nd)	1–1	25%
·	Sat Oct 31	vs	Detroit City FC West (5th)	1–1	41%
·	Sun Nov 1	vs	Michigan Rangers FC (10th)	4–0	92%
·	Sat Nov 7	at	Portage SC (6th)	1–1	33%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Detroit City FC West

+14

2.00

LWWDW

-0.74

+1.15

14%

5.6

W	Sun Oct 18	at	Liverpool FC-IA Michigan NO G 10/11 GMA (11th)	3–2
D	Sun Oct 11	vs	Nationals SC-CA GMA (3rd)	2–2
W	Sat Oct 10	vs	Michigan Rangers FC (10th)	7–1
W	Sun Oct 4	at	Liverpool FC MI GMA (12th)	6–1
L	Sat Oct 3	vs	Plymouth Reign (7th)	1–2
W	Sun Sep 27	vs	TKO Premier SC (9th)	3–0
D	Sat Sep 26	vs	Portage SC (6th)	1–1

Next: Sat Oct 31 at Nationals SC-Union GMA · Sun Nov 1 at Michigan Burn · Sat Nov 7 at Legends FC See all 4 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 31	at	Nationals SC-Union GMA (4th)	1–1	35%
·	Sun Nov 1	at	Michigan Burn (1st)	1–2	14%
·	Sat Nov 7	at	Legends FC (2nd)	1–2	19%
·	Sun Nov 8	at	Cap City Athletic 1847 (8th)	2–1	59%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Portage SC

1.67

DWWLW

+0.56

-0.83

55%

4.4

W	Sun Oct 18	vs	TKO Premier SC (9th)	4–2
L	Sun Oct 11	at	Legends FC (2nd)	0–2
W	Sat Oct 10	at	Cap City Athletic 1847 (8th)	7–1
W	Sun Sep 27	at	Plymouth Reign (7th)	5–2
D	Sat Sep 26	at	Detroit City FC West (5th)	1–1
L	Sat Sep 19	vs	Michigan Burn (1st)	1–2

Next: Sat Oct 24 vs Nationals SC-CA GMA · Sun Oct 25 vs Michigan Rangers FC · Sat Oct 31 vs Liverpool FC MI GMA See all 5 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 24	vs	Nationals SC-CA GMA (3rd)	1–2	27%
·	Sun Oct 25	vs	Michigan Rangers FC (10th)	5–0	97%
·	Sat Oct 31	vs	Liverpool FC MI GMA (12th)	4–0	94%
·	Sun Nov 1	vs	Liverpool FC-IA Michigan NO G 10/11 GMA (11th)	4–0	90%
·	Sat Nov 7	vs	Nationals SC-Union GMA (4th)	1–1	44%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Plymouth Reign

1.50

LWLWW

-0.44

+0.58

7.3

W	Sun Oct 18	at	Liverpool FC MI GMA (12th)	3–2
W	Sun Oct 11	vs	Michigan Rangers FC (10th)	6–0
L	Sat Oct 10	vs	Nationals SC-CA GMA (3rd)	1–2
W	Sat Oct 3	at	Detroit City FC West (5th)	2–1
L	Sun Sep 27	vs	Portage SC (6th)	2–5
L	Sat Sep 26	vs	TKO Premier SC (9th)	0–1

Next: Sat Oct 24 at Nationals SC-Union GMA · Sun Oct 25 at Liverpool FC-IA Michigan NO G 10/11 GMA · Sat Oct 31 at Michigan Burn See all 5 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 24	at	Nationals SC-Union GMA (4th)	1–1	23%
·	Sun Oct 25	at	Liverpool FC-IA Michigan NO G 10/11 GMA (11th)	2–1	71%
·	Sat Oct 31	at	Michigan Burn (1st)	0–3	7%
·	Sat Nov 7	vs	Cap City Athletic 1847 (8th)	2–1	52%
·	Sun Nov 8	at	Legends FC (2nd)	1–2	10%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Cap City Athletic 1847

-1

1.50

WLWLL

-0.19

+0.50

7.5

L	Sun Oct 18	at	Nationals SC-Union GMA (4th)	1–2
L	Sat Oct 17	at	Nationals SC-CA GMA (3rd)	0–2
W	Sun Oct 11	vs	TKO Premier SC (9th)	2–1
L	Sat Oct 10	vs	Portage SC (6th)	1–7
W	Sun Sep 20	vs	Liverpool FC-IA Michigan NO G 10/11 GMA (11th)	3–0
W	Sat Sep 19	at	Liverpool FC MI GMA (12th)	4–0

Next: Sat Oct 24 at Michigan Rangers FC · Sun Oct 25 vs Michigan Burn · Tue Oct 27 at Legends FC See all 5 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 24	at	Michigan Rangers FC (10th)	3–1	79%
·	Sun Oct 25	vs	Michigan Burn (1st)	0–3	8%
·	Tue Oct 27	at	Legends FC (2nd)	0–3	7%
·	Sat Nov 7	at	Plymouth Reign (7th)	1–2	28%
·	Sun Nov 8	vs	Detroit City FC West (5th)	1–2	23%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

TKO Premier SC

-18

0.75

LLLLL

+0.58

-0.66

9.2

L	Sun Oct 18	at	Portage SC (6th)	2–4
L	Sat Oct 17	vs	Michigan Burn (1st)	0–5
L	Sun Oct 11	at	Cap City Athletic 1847 (8th)	1–2
L	Sat Oct 10	at	Legends FC (2nd)	0–7
L	Sun Sep 27	at	Detroit City FC West (5th)	0–3
W	Sat Sep 26	at	Plymouth Reign (7th)	1–0
L	Sat Sep 19	vs	Nationals SC-Union GMA (4th)	0–2
W	Sat Sep 12	vs	Michigan Rangers FC (10th)	1–0

Next: Sat Oct 31 vs Nationals SC-CA GMA · Sun Nov 1 vs Liverpool FC MI GMA · Sat Nov 7 vs Liverpool FC-IA Michigan NO G 10/11 GMA See all 3 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 31	vs	Nationals SC-CA GMA (3rd)	0–3	3%
·	Sun Nov 1	vs	Liverpool FC MI GMA (12th)	1–1	54%
·	Sat Nov 7	vs	Liverpool FC-IA Michigan NO G 10/11 GMA (11th)	1–1	44%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Michigan Rangers FC

-23

0.60

LWLLL

-0.04

+0.66

10.8

L	Sun Oct 11	at	Plymouth Reign (7th)	0–6
L	Sat Oct 10	at	Detroit City FC West (5th)	1–7
L	Sun Sep 27	at	Nationals SC-CA GMA (3rd)	0–12
W	Sun Sep 20	vs	Liverpool FC MI GMA (12th)	2–0
L	Sat Sep 12	at	TKO Premier SC (9th)	0–1

Next: Sat Oct 24 vs Cap City Athletic 1847 · Sun Oct 25 at Portage SC · Sun Nov 1 at Nationals SC-Union GMA See all 6 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 24	vs	Cap City Athletic 1847 (8th)	1–3	10%
·	Sun Oct 25	at	Portage SC (6th)	0–5	1%
·	Sun Nov 1	at	Nationals SC-Union GMA (4th)	0–4	2%
·	Sat Nov 7	at	Michigan Burn (1st)	0–6	0%
·	Sun Nov 8	vs	Liverpool FC-IA Michigan NO G 10/11 GMA (11th)	1–2	33%
·	Sun Nov 22	vs	Legends FC (2nd)	0–5	1%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Liverpool FC-IA Michigan NO G 10/11 GMA

-19

0.43

LLLWL

+0.75

-0.76

10.0

L	Sun Oct 18	vs	Detroit City FC West (5th)	2–3
W	Fri Oct 16	vs	Liverpool FC MI GMA (12th)	1–0
L	Sun Oct 11	vs	Michigan Burn (1st)	0–6
L	Sat Oct 10	vs	Nationals SC-Union GMA (4th)	1–3
L	Mon Sep 28	at	Nationals SC-CA GMA (3rd)	0–5
L	Sun Sep 27	vs	Legends FC (2nd)	0–3
L	Sun Sep 20	at	Cap City Athletic 1847 (8th)	0–3

Next: Sun Oct 25 vs Plymouth Reign · Sun Nov 1 at Portage SC · Sat Nov 7 at TKO Premier SC See all 4 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sun Oct 25	vs	Plymouth Reign (7th)	1–2	13%
·	Sun Nov 1	at	Portage SC (6th)	0–4	3%
·	Sat Nov 7	at	TKO Premier SC (9th)	1–1	31%
·	Sun Nov 8	at	Michigan Rangers FC (10th)	2–1	46%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Liverpool FC MI GMA

-22

0.00

LLLLL

-0.05

+0.86

11.9

L	Sun Oct 18	vs	Plymouth Reign (7th)	2–3
L	Fri Oct 16	at	Liverpool FC-IA Michigan NO G 10/11 GMA (11th)	0–1
L	Sun Oct 11	vs	Nationals SC-Union GMA (4th)	0–3
L	Sat Oct 10	vs	Michigan Burn (1st)	0–6
L	Sun Oct 4	vs	Detroit City FC West (5th)	1–6
L	Sun Sep 20	at	Michigan Rangers FC (10th)	0–2
L	Sat Sep 19	vs	Cap City Athletic 1847 (8th)	0–4

Next: Sat Oct 31 at Portage SC · Sun Nov 1 at TKO Premier SC · Sun Nov 15 at Nationals SC-CA GMA See all 4 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 31	at	Portage SC (6th)	0–4	2%
·	Sun Nov 1	at	TKO Premier SC (9th)	1–1	23%
·	Sun Nov 15	at	Nationals SC-CA GMA (3rd)	0–5	1%
·	Sun Dec 6	vs	Legends FC (2nd)	0–4	1%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.

How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (2.04 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.