Michigan Burn
ECNL Regional League Girls · GMA GU15 · 12 teams · Michigan Burn (all teams)
Next game — Sat Oct 24, 09:00 AM
The Sports Academy, Turf Field ↗ · turf
●●●●● Very tough to win
Most likely score 1–2 (expected goals 1.0 for, 2.5 against · 0.55 expected points)
| Season so far | Michigan Burn | Legends FC |
|---|---|---|
| Position | 11th | 2nd |
| Record (W-D-L) | 0-1-4 | 3-1-1 |
| Points per game | 0.20 | 2.00 |
| Goals for / game | 0.6 | 1.8 |
| Goals against / game | 3.4 | 1.4 |
| Clean sheets | 1 | 3 |
| Held scoreless | 3 | 1 |
| Form (recent first) | L L D L L | W L W D W |
| Biggest win | — | 3–0 vs TKO Premier SC |
| Worst loss | 1–6 at Nationals SC-Union GMA | 0–5 vs Portage SC |
| Model rating (net goals vs avg) | -1.45 | +0.40 |
| Schedule faced (avg opp. rating) | +0.67 | +0.70 |
Common opponents: Portage SC — we 0–4; they 0–5. Liverpool FC MI GMA — we 2–3; they 2–0. Liverpool FC-IA Michigan NO G 11/12 GMA — we 0–0; they 2–0. TKO Premier SC — we 0–4; they 3–0.
Game plan
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Finishing wins the tight ones
Held scoreless 3 time(s): 0–4 at Portage SC, 0–0 at Liverpool FC-IA Michigan NO G 11/12 GMA, 0–4 at TKO Premier SC.Against a low block, the first goal usually comes from a cross or a cut-back, not a dribble. Get 2–3 bodies in the box on every wide entry and finish practice this week at game speed.
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Underdog — play free, stay organised
Model gives 13%; a draw (17%) would be a good result.Keep the shape compact, make them play in front of you, and hit space behind their full-backs on transitions. A point here is a win for the table; a win is a season-changer.
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Early kickoff
Game time 09:00 AM.Light breakfast 2+ hours before, longer warm-up, and a loud start — early games are won by whoever is awake at the whistle.
If Saturday goes…
Where we'd sit after the Legends FC game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (Michigan Burn – Legends FC) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 5 other games that week (Mon Oct 19 – Sun Oct 25); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.
| Our result | Rivals don't play | Likely results | Every rival wins |
|---|---|---|---|
| – Loss · 0.17 PPG |
11th— holds | 11th— holds | 12th▼ down 1 |
| Win 0.67 PPG |
11th— holds | 11th— holds | 11th— holds |
| Draw 0.33 PPG |
11th— holds | 11th— holds | 12th▼ down 1 |
| Loss 0.17 PPG |
11th— holds | 11th— holds | 12th▼ down 1 |
Can we move up this round? No. With a 1–2 loss we stay 11th even if every rival loses, and as low as 12th if every rival wins.
Where we finish
2,000 simulated seasons
- 1st
- 2nd
- 3rd
- 4th
- 5th
- 6th <1%
- 7th 1%
- 8th 4%
- 9th 7%
- 10th 13%
- 11th 69%
- 12th 5%
Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.
Climbing the table
What it takes to pass each team above us, from our 6 remaining known games (max 1.73 PPG if we win out).
| # | Team | PPG | Proj. | To pass them |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Portage SC | 3.00 (+2.80) | 1st (2.91) | 32 of 18 pts to pass their current pace, 32 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule |
| 2 | Legends FC | 2.00 (+1.80) | 3rd (1.89) | 21 of 18 pts to pass their current pace, 20 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule |
| 3 | Detroit City FC West | 1.86 (+1.66) | 2nd (1.94) | 20 of 18 pts to pass their current pace, 21 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule |
| 4 | Nationals SC-Union GMA | 1.86 (+1.66) | 5th (1.81) | 20 of 18 pts to pass their current pace, 19 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule |
| 5 | TKO Premier SC | 1.83 (+1.63) | 4th (1.85) | 20 of 18 pts to pass their current pace, 20 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule |
| 6 | Nationals SC - CA GMA | 1.60 (+1.40) | 6th (1.49) | 17 of 18 pts to pass their current pace, 16 for their projection |
| 7 | Michigan Rangers FC | 1.40 (+1.20) | 7th (1.34) | 15 of 18 pts to pass their current pace, 14 for their projection |
| 8 | Liverpool FC-IA Michigan NO G 11/12 GMA | 1.14 (+0.94) | 9th (0.95) | 12 of 18 pts to pass their current pace, 10 for their projection |
| 9 | Liverpool FC MI GMA | 0.88 (+0.68) | 10th (0.75) | 9 of 18 pts to pass their current pace, 8 for their projection |
| 10 | Cap City Athletic 1847 | 0.67 (+0.47) | 8th (1.07) | 7 of 18 pts to pass their current pace, 11 for their projection |
How the results connect
15 chains · 8 teams
Paths of results that link Michigan Burn to Legends FC through teams both have faced, drawn as one map. Teams sit in columns by how many games away from us they are. Each arrow is one game, pointing away from us, and its colour is the result for the team it starts from. Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain and see its net goal margin.
Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain, or step through them with the arrows. Open full screen and turn your phone to see the whole map.
Step through the chains with the arrows, or tap one on the map.
Position over the season
15 game days
The table re-sorted after each date on which a game was played. Shaded band is the top 4.
The path
run-in difficulty -0.43 · 9th hardest of 12
| Date | Opponent | Where | Difficulty | Win | Likely | Exp. pts | Run. PPG | Priority |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sun Oct 4 11:30 AM no score posted |
Nationals SC - CA GMA 6th · 2-2-1 · GD +3 |
Home The Sports Academy · turf |
●●●●● Very tough | 15% |
0–1 | 0.66 | 0.28 | Upside |
| Sat Oct 24 09:00 AM |
Legends FC 2nd · 3-1-1 · GD +2 |
Home The Sports Academy · turf |
●●●●● Very tough | 13% |
1–2 | 0.55 | 0.32 | Upside |
| Sun Oct 25 01:00 PM |
Cap City Athletic 1847 10th · 0-4-2 · GD -4 |
Away far trip
East Lansing Soccer Complex |
●●●●● Very tough | 16% |
1–2 | 0.67 | 0.36 | Upside |
| Sat Oct 31 09:00 AM |
Plymouth Reign 12th · 0-0-6 · GD -38 |
Home The Sports Academy · turf |
●○○○○ Favorable | 77% |
3–1 | 2.45 | 0.59 | Bank it |
| Sun Nov 1 03:30 PM |
Detroit City FC West 3rd · 4-1-2 · GD +13 |
Home The Sports Academy · turf |
●●●●● Very tough | 6% |
0–3 | 0.29 | 0.56 | Upside |
| Sat Nov 7 04:00 PM |
Michigan Rangers FC 7th · 2-1-2 · GD -3 |
Home The Sports Academy · turf |
●●●●● Very tough | 23% |
1–1 | 0.90 | 0.59 | Upside |
"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.
Standings
| # | Team | GP | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | PPG | Form | SoS | Run-in | Top 4 | Exp. finish | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| 1 | Portage SC | 7 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 42 | 2 | +40 | 21 | 3.00 | WWWWW | -0.58 | +0.05 | 100% | 1.0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 vs Nationals SC - CA GMA · Sat Oct 31 vs Liverpool FC MI GMA · Sun Nov 1 vs Liverpool FC-IA Michigan NO G 11/12 GMA See all 4 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 2 | Legends FC | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 9 | 7 | +2 | 10 | 2.00 | WDWLW | +0.70 | -0.68 | 70% | 3.7 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 at Michigan Burn · Sun Oct 25 at Nationals SC-Union GMA · Sun Nov 1 at Nationals SC - CA GMA See all 6 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 3 | Detroit City FC West | 7 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 21 | 8 | +13 | 13 | 1.86 | LWWWD | -0.05 | -0.31 | 85% | 3.1 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 31 at Nationals SC-Union GMA · Sun Nov 1 at Michigan Burn · Sat Nov 7 at Legends FC See all 4 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 4 | Nationals SC-Union GMA | 7 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 16 | 17 | -1 | 13 | 1.86 | LWWWW | +0.27 | -0.64 | 54% | 4.3 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 vs Plymouth Reign · Sun Oct 25 vs Legends FC · Sat Oct 31 vs Detroit City FC West See all 4 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 5 | TKO Premier SC | 6 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 17 | 5 | +12 | 11 | 1.83 | WWLDW | -0.65 | +0.49 | 72% | 3.8 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Oct 25 vs Michigan Rangers FC · Sat Oct 31 vs Nationals SC - CA GMA · Sun Nov 1 vs Liverpool FC MI GMA See all 5 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 6 | Nationals SC - CA GMA | 5 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 6 | 3 | +3 | 8 | 1.60 | WLDWD | -0.75 | +0.49 | 13% | 6.0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Oct 4 at Michigan Burn · Sat Oct 24 at Portage SC · Sat Oct 31 at TKO Premier SC See all 6 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 7 | Michigan Rangers FC | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 6 | 9 | -3 | 7 | 1.40 | LWDLW | +0.05 | -0.12 | 6% | 6.9 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 vs Cap City Athletic 1847 · Sun Oct 25 at TKO Premier SC · Sun Nov 1 at Nationals SC-Union GMA See all 6 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 8 | Liverpool FC-IA Michigan NO G 11/12 GMA | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 6 | 12 | -6 | 8 | 1.14 | WLWLD | -0.08 | +1.52 | 0% | 8.7 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Nov 1 at Portage SC · Sat Nov 7 at TKO Premier SC · Sun Nov 8 at Michigan Rangers FC See all 3 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 9 | Liverpool FC MI GMA | 8 | 2 | 1 | 5 | 12 | 16 | -4 | 7 | 0.88 | LWLLW | -0.64 | +1.70 | 0% | 9.9 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 31 at Portage SC · Sun Nov 1 at TKO Premier SC · Sat Dec 5 at Nationals SC - CA GMA See all 3 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 10 | Cap City Athletic 1847 | 6 | 0 | 4 | 2 | 7 | 11 | -4 | 4 | 0.67 | DDLDL | +0.73 | -0.83 | 0% | 8.0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 at Michigan Rangers FC · Sun Oct 25 vs Michigan Burn · Sat Nov 7 at Plymouth Reign See all 5 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 11 | Michigan Burn | 5 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 3 | 17 | -14 | 1 | 0.20 | LLDLL | +0.67 | -0.43 | 0% | 10.6 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Oct 4 vs Nationals SC - CA GMA · Sat Oct 24 vs Legends FC · Sun Oct 25 at Cap City Athletic 1847 See all 6 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 12 | Plymouth Reign | 6 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 1 | 39 | -38 | 0 | 0.00 | LLLLL | +0.86 | -0.31 | 0% | 11.9 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 at Nationals SC-Union GMA · Sat Oct 31 at Michigan Burn · Sat Nov 7 vs Cap City Athletic 1847 See all 4 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.
How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (1.87 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.