Nationals SC-Union GMA

ECNL Regional League Girls · GMA GU14 · 12 teams · Nationals (all teams)

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4th

4-2-1 record · 7 played

2.00 points per game

+9 goal diff · 13–4

LWWDDlast 5

77% chance of top 4 · expected finish 4.1

-0.59 schedule faced · avg opponent rating

Next game — Sun Oct 25, 07:30 PM

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Nationals SC-Union GMA
4th · 2.00 PPG

Legends FC
5th · 2.00 PPG

Evolution Sportsplex Dome, Dome 11v11 ↗

55% 24% 21%

windrawloss

●●●○○ Toss-up to win

Most likely score 1–0 (expected goals 1.7 for, 1.0 against · 1.88 expected points)

Season so far	Nationals SC-Union GMA	Legends FC
Position	4th	5th
Record (W-D-L)	4-2-1	4-2-1
Points per game	2.00	2.00
Goals for / game	1.9	1.9
Goals against / game	0.6	1.3
Clean sheets	4	3
Held scoreless	1	2
Form (recent first)	D D W W L	W W W L D
Biggest win	5–1 at Liverpool FC-IA Michigan NO G 12/13 GMA	3–0 at Liverpool FC MI GMA
Worst loss	1–2 at Portage SC	0–3 vs Portage SC
Model rating (net goals vs avg)	+0.76	+0.22
Schedule faced (avg opp. rating)	-0.59	-0.61

Common opponents: TKO Premier SC — we 2–0; they 0–0. Michigan Burn — we 1–0; they 1–0. Portage SC — we 1–2; they 0–3. Liverpool FC-IA Michigan NO G 12/13 GMA — we 5–1; they 2–2. Liverpool FC MI GMA — we 3–0; they 3–0. Cap City Athletic 1847 — we 0–0; they 4–2. Plymouth Reign — we 1–1; they 3–2.

Game plan

Finishing wins the tight ones
Held scoreless 1 time(s): 0–0 vs Cap City Athletic 1847.
Against a low block, the first goal usually comes from a cross or a cut-back, not a dribble. Get 2–3 bodies in the box on every wide entry and finish practice this week at game speed.
Swing game — small margins
Win 55% / draw 24% / loss 21%.
Games like this are decided by one set piece or one transition. Prioritise the strongest XI for the full game, be disciplined with fouls near the box, and have a clear late-game plan for both "protect the lead" and "chase".
They arrive in form
Legends FC have won 3 straight.
Don't let them settle: deny the first 10 minutes of rhythm with pressure on their first pass out of the back.

If Sunday goes…

Where we'd sit after the Legends FC game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (Nationals SC-Union GMA – Legends FC) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 6 other games that week (Mon Oct 19 – Sun Oct 25); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.

Our result	Rivals don't play	Likely results	Every rival wins
– Win · 2.13 PPG	4th— holds	3rd▲ up 1	4th— holds
Win 2.13 PPG	4th— holds	3rd▲ up 1	4th— holds
Draw 1.88 PPG	4th— holds	4th— holds	4th— holds
Loss 1.75 PPG	5th▼ down 1	5th▼ down 1	5th▼ down 1

Can we move up this round? Yes. With a 1–0 win we finish as high as 3rd if every rival drops points, and as low as 4th if every rival wins.

Where we finish

2,000 simulated seasons

0% finish 1st

77% top 4

23% below the top 4

4.1 average finish

1st
2nd <1%
3rd 14%
4th 62%
5th 19%
6th 4%
7th 1%
8th
9th
10th
11th
12th

Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.

Climbing the table

What it takes to pass each team above us, from our 4 remaining known games (max 2.36 PPG if we win out).

#	Team	PPG	Proj.	To pass them
1	Detroit City FC West	3.00 (+1.00)	1st (2.81)	19 of 12 pts to pass their current pace, 17 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule
2	Portage SC	2.63 (+0.63)	2nd (2.61)	15 of 12 pts to pass their current pace, 15 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule
3	Nationals SC-CA GMA	2.40 (+0.40)	3rd (2.20)	13 of 12 pts to pass their current pace, 11 for their projection

How the results connect

29 chains · 9 teams

Paths of results that link Nationals SC-Union GMA to Legends FC through teams both have faced, drawn as one map. Teams sit in columns by how many games away from us they are. Each arrow is one game, pointing away from us, and its colour is the result for the team it starts from. Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain and see its net goal margin.

13 favour us

8 even

8 favour them

+0.6 goals per chain on average. The results point our way.

won lost drew· result for the team the arrow starts from

Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain, or step through them with the arrows. Open full screen and turn your phone to see the whole map.

12 chains

Position over the season

13 game days

The table re-sorted after each date on which a game was played. Shaded band is the top 4.

The path

run-in difficulty +0.80 · 2nd hardest of 12

Date	Opponent	Where	Difficulty	Win	Likely	Exp. pts	Run. PPG	Priority
Sun Oct 25 07:30 PM	Legends FC 5th · 4-2-1 · GD +4	Home Evolution Sportsplex Dome	●●●○○ Toss-up	55%	1–0	1.88	1.98	Swing game
Sat Oct 31 10:00 AM	Detroit City FC West 1st · 7-0-0 · GD +27	Home Oakland University Upper Fields	●●●●● Very tough	17%	0–1	0.72	1.84	Upside
Sun Nov 1 12:30 PM	Michigan Rangers FC 7th · 2-0-3 · GD -10	Home Evolution Sportsplex Dome	●○○○○ Favorable	78%	3–1	2.48	1.91	Bank it
Sat Nov 14 10:00 AM	Nationals SC-CA GMA 3rd · 4-0-1 · GD +12	Away far trip Capital Area Sports Plex	●●●●○ Tough	30%	1–1	1.13	1.84	Upside

"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.

Standings

Team

Pts

PPG

Form

SoS

Run-in

Top 4

Exp. finish

Detroit City FC West

+27

3.00

WWWWW

-0.31

-0.15

100%

1.2

W	Sun Oct 18	at	Liverpool FC-IA Michigan NO G 12/13 GMA (8th)	3–0
W	Sun Oct 11	vs	Nationals SC-CA GMA (3rd)	4–0
W	Sat Oct 10	vs	Michigan Rangers FC (7th)	7–1
W	Sun Oct 4	at	Liverpool FC MI GMA (12th)	8–0
W	Sat Oct 3	vs	Plymouth Reign (9th)	2–1
W	Sun Sep 27	vs	TKO Premier SC (11th)	2–0
W	Sat Sep 26	vs	Portage SC (2nd)	3–0

Next: Sat Oct 31 at Nationals SC-Union GMA · Sun Nov 1 at Michigan Burn · Sat Nov 7 at Legends FC See all 4 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 31	at	Nationals SC-Union GMA (4th)	1–0	61%
·	Sun Nov 1	at	Michigan Burn (10th)	4–0	96%
·	Sat Nov 7	at	Legends FC (5th)	2–0	78%
·	Sun Nov 8	at	Cap City Athletic 1847 (6th)	2–0	79%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Portage SC

+20

2.63

WWWWW

-0.02

-0.65

100%

2.0

W	Sun Oct 18	vs	TKO Premier SC (11th)	3–0
W	Sat Oct 17	vs	Michigan Rangers FC (7th)	4–0
W	Sun Oct 11	at	Legends FC (5th)	3–0
W	Sat Oct 10	at	Cap City Athletic 1847 (6th)	2–0
W	Sun Oct 4	vs	Nationals SC-Union GMA (4th)	2–1
W	Sun Sep 27	at	Plymouth Reign (9th)	3–0
L	Sat Sep 26	at	Detroit City FC West (1st)	0–3
W	Sat Sep 19	vs	Michigan Burn (10th)	8–1

Next: Sat Oct 24 vs Nationals SC-CA GMA · Sat Oct 31 vs Liverpool FC MI GMA · Sun Nov 1 vs Liverpool FC-IA Michigan NO G 12/13 GMA See all 3 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 24	vs	Nationals SC-CA GMA (3rd)	2–1	59%
·	Sat Oct 31	vs	Liverpool FC MI GMA (12th)	5–0	99%
·	Sun Nov 1	vs	Liverpool FC-IA Michigan NO G 12/13 GMA (8th)	3–0	89%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Nationals SC-CA GMA

+12

2.40

WWWWL

-0.18

-0.09

97%

3.1

L	Sun Oct 11	at	Detroit City FC West (1st)	0–4
W	Sat Oct 10	at	Plymouth Reign (9th)	1–0
W	Sun Oct 4	at	Michigan Burn (10th)	6–0
W	Sun Sep 27	vs	Michigan Rangers FC (7th)	8–1
W	Sat Sep 26	vs	Liverpool FC-IA Michigan NO G 12/13 GMA (8th)	3–1

Next: Sat Oct 24 at Portage SC · Fri Oct 30 vs Cap City Athletic 1847 · Sat Oct 31 at TKO Premier SC See all 6 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 24	at	Portage SC (2nd)	1–2	22%
·	Fri Oct 30	vs	Cap City Athletic 1847 (6th)	2–1	68%
·	Sat Oct 31	at	TKO Premier SC (11th)	2–0	73%
·	Sun Nov 1	vs	Legends FC (5th)	2–1	66%
·	Sat Nov 14	vs	Nationals SC-Union GMA (4th)	1–1	47%
·	Sat Dec 5	vs	Liverpool FC MI GMA (12th)	5–0	98%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Nationals SC-Union GMA

2.00

LWWDD

-0.59

+0.80

77%

4.1

D	Sat Oct 24	vs	Plymouth Reign (9th)	1–1
D	Sun Oct 18	vs	Cap City Athletic 1847 (6th)	0–0
W	Sun Oct 11	at	Liverpool FC MI GMA (12th)	3–0
W	Sat Oct 10	at	Liverpool FC-IA Michigan NO G 12/13 GMA (8th)	5–1
L	Sun Oct 4	at	Portage SC (2nd)	1–2
W	Thu Oct 1	vs	Michigan Burn (10th)	1–0
W	Sat Sep 19	at	TKO Premier SC (11th)	2–0

Next: Sun Oct 25 vs Legends FC · Sat Oct 31 vs Detroit City FC West · Sun Nov 1 vs Michigan Rangers FC See all 4 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sun Oct 25	vs	Legends FC (5th)	1–0	55%
·	Sat Oct 31	vs	Detroit City FC West (1st)	0–1	17%
·	Sun Nov 1	vs	Michigan Rangers FC (7th)	3–1	78%
·	Sat Nov 14	at	Nationals SC-CA GMA (3rd)	1–1	30%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Legends FC

2.00

DLWWW

-0.61

+0.93

22%

5.1

W	Sat Oct 24	at	Michigan Burn (10th)	1–0
W	Fri Oct 23	vs	Plymouth Reign (9th)	3–2
W	Sat Oct 17	at	Liverpool FC MI GMA (12th)	3–0
L	Sun Oct 11	vs	Portage SC (2nd)	0–3
D	Sat Oct 10	vs	TKO Premier SC (11th)	0–0
W	Sun Oct 4	vs	Cap City Athletic 1847 (6th)	4–2
D	Sun Sep 27	at	Liverpool FC-IA Michigan NO G 12/13 GMA (8th)	2–2

Next: Sun Oct 25 at Nationals SC-Union GMA · Sun Nov 1 at Nationals SC-CA GMA · Sat Nov 7 vs Detroit City FC West See all 4 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sun Oct 25	at	Nationals SC-Union GMA (4th)	0–1	21%
·	Sun Nov 1	at	Nationals SC-CA GMA (3rd)	1–2	17%
·	Sat Nov 7	vs	Detroit City FC West (1st)	0–2	8%
·	Sat Nov 14	at	Michigan Rangers FC (7th)	2–1	57%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Cap City Athletic 1847

1.33

DLLWD

-0.14

+0.22

6.6

D	Sun Oct 18	at	Nationals SC-Union GMA (4th)	0–0
W	Sun Oct 11	vs	TKO Premier SC (11th)	1–0
L	Sat Oct 10	vs	Portage SC (2nd)	0–2
L	Sun Oct 4	at	Legends FC (5th)	2–4
D	Sun Sep 20	vs	Liverpool FC-IA Michigan NO G 12/13 GMA (8th)	1–1
W	Sat Sep 19	at	Liverpool FC MI GMA (12th)	3–0

Next: Sat Oct 24 at Michigan Rangers FC · Sun Oct 25 vs Michigan Burn · Fri Oct 30 at Nationals SC-CA GMA See all 5 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 24	at	Michigan Rangers FC (7th)	2–1	48%
·	Sun Oct 25	vs	Michigan Burn (10th)	2–0	69%
·	Fri Oct 30	at	Nationals SC-CA GMA (3rd)	1–2	14%
·	Sun Nov 1	at	Plymouth Reign (9th)	1–0	38%
·	Sun Nov 8	vs	Detroit City FC West (1st)	0–2	7%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Michigan Rangers FC

-10

1.20

WLLWL

+0.62

-0.34

7.2

L	Sat Oct 17	at	Portage SC (2nd)	0–4
W	Sun Oct 11	at	Plymouth Reign (9th)	2–0
L	Sat Oct 10	at	Detroit City FC West (1st)	1–7
L	Sun Sep 27	at	Nationals SC-CA GMA (3rd)	1–8
W	Sun Sep 20	vs	Liverpool FC MI GMA (12th)	6–1

Next: Sat Oct 24 vs Cap City Athletic 1847 · Sun Oct 25 at TKO Premier SC · Sun Nov 1 at Nationals SC-Union GMA See all 6 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 24	vs	Cap City Athletic 1847 (6th)	1–2	31%
·	Sun Oct 25	at	TKO Premier SC (11th)	1–1	44%
·	Sun Nov 1	at	Nationals SC-Union GMA (4th)	1–3	9%
·	Sat Nov 7	at	Michigan Burn (10th)	2–1	57%
·	Sun Nov 8	vs	Liverpool FC-IA Michigan NO G 12/13 GMA (8th)	2–2	48%
·	Sat Nov 14	vs	Legends FC (5th)	1–2	25%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Liverpool FC-IA Michigan NO G 12/13 GMA

-8

0.83

LDLWL

+0.57

-0.55

8.0

L	Sun Oct 18	vs	Detroit City FC West (1st)	0–3
W	Sun Oct 11	vs	Michigan Burn (10th)	2–1
L	Sat Oct 10	vs	Nationals SC-Union GMA (4th)	1–5
D	Sun Sep 27	vs	Legends FC (5th)	2–2
L	Sat Sep 26	at	Nationals SC-CA GMA (3rd)	1–3
D	Sun Sep 20	at	Cap City Athletic 1847 (6th)	1–1

Next: Sat Oct 24 vs Liverpool FC MI GMA · Sun Oct 25 vs Plymouth Reign · Sun Nov 1 at Portage SC See all 5 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 24	vs	Liverpool FC MI GMA (12th)	2–0	79%
·	Sun Oct 25	vs	Plymouth Reign (9th)	1–1	36%
·	Sun Nov 1	at	Portage SC (2nd)	0–3	3%
·	Sat Nov 7	at	TKO Premier SC (11th)	1–0	39%
·	Sun Nov 8	at	Michigan Rangers FC (7th)	2–2	34%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Plymouth Reign

-5

0.63

LLWLD

+0.28

-0.78

8.9

D	Sat Oct 24	at	Nationals SC-Union GMA (4th)	1–1
L	Fri Oct 23	at	Legends FC (5th)	2–3
W	Sun Oct 18	at	Liverpool FC MI GMA (12th)	3–0
L	Sun Oct 11	vs	Michigan Rangers FC (7th)	0–2
L	Sat Oct 10	vs	Nationals SC-CA GMA (3rd)	0–1
L	Sat Oct 3	at	Detroit City FC West (1st)	1–2
L	Sun Sep 27	vs	Portage SC (2nd)	0–3
D	Sat Sep 26	vs	TKO Premier SC (11th)	0–0

Next: Sun Oct 25 at Liverpool FC-IA Michigan NO G 12/13 GMA · Sat Oct 31 at Michigan Burn · Sun Nov 1 vs Cap City Athletic 1847 See all 3 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sun Oct 25	at	Liverpool FC-IA Michigan NO G 12/13 GMA (8th)	1–1	38%
·	Sat Oct 31	at	Michigan Burn (10th)	1–0	53%
·	Sun Nov 1	vs	Cap City Athletic 1847 (6th)	0–1	32%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Michigan Burn

-15

0.50

LLWLL

+0.10

10.4

L	Sat Oct 24	vs	Legends FC (5th)	0–1
L	Sun Oct 11	at	Liverpool FC-IA Michigan NO G 12/13 GMA (8th)	1–2
W	Sat Oct 10	at	Liverpool FC MI GMA (12th)	2–1
L	Sun Oct 4	vs	Nationals SC-CA GMA (3rd)	0–6
L	Thu Oct 1	at	Nationals SC-Union GMA (4th)	0–1
L	Sat Sep 19	at	Portage SC (2nd)	1–8

Next: Sun Sep 20 at TKO Premier SC · Sun Oct 25 at Cap City Athletic 1847 · Sat Oct 31 vs Plymouth Reign See all 5 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sun Sep 20 (no score yet)	at	TKO Premier SC (11th)	0–1	26%
·	Sun Oct 25	at	Cap City Athletic 1847 (6th)	0–2	12%
·	Sat Oct 31	vs	Plymouth Reign (9th)	0–1	22%
·	Sun Nov 1	vs	Detroit City FC West (1st)	0–4	1%
·	Sat Nov 7	vs	Michigan Rangers FC (7th)	1–2	25%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

TKO Premier SC

-8

0.33

DLDLL

+0.82

-0.88

9.5

L	Sun Oct 18	at	Portage SC (2nd)	0–3
L	Sun Oct 11	at	Cap City Athletic 1847 (6th)	0–1
D	Sat Oct 10	at	Legends FC (5th)	0–0
L	Sun Sep 27	at	Detroit City FC West (1st)	0–2
D	Sat Sep 26	at	Plymouth Reign (9th)	0–0
L	Sat Sep 19	vs	Nationals SC-Union GMA (4th)	0–2

Next: Sun Sep 20 vs Michigan Burn · Sun Oct 25 vs Michigan Rangers FC · Sat Oct 31 vs Nationals SC-CA GMA See all 5 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sun Sep 20 (no score yet)	vs	Michigan Burn (10th)	1–0	42%
·	Sun Oct 25	vs	Michigan Rangers FC (7th)	1–1	30%
·	Sat Oct 31	vs	Nationals SC-CA GMA (3rd)	0–2	9%
·	Sun Nov 1	vs	Liverpool FC MI GMA (12th)	1–0	57%
·	Sat Nov 7	vs	Liverpool FC-IA Michigan NO G 12/13 GMA (8th)	0–1	30%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Liverpool FC MI GMA

-26

0.00

LLLLL

+0.10

+0.44

12.0

L	Sun Oct 18	vs	Plymouth Reign (9th)	0–3
L	Sat Oct 17	vs	Legends FC (5th)	0–3
L	Sun Oct 11	vs	Nationals SC-Union GMA (4th)	0–3
L	Sat Oct 10	vs	Michigan Burn (10th)	1–2
L	Sun Oct 4	vs	Detroit City FC West (1st)	0–8
L	Sun Sep 20	at	Michigan Rangers FC (7th)	1–6
L	Sat Sep 19	vs	Cap City Athletic 1847 (6th)	0–3

Next: Sat Oct 24 at Liverpool FC-IA Michigan NO G 12/13 GMA · Sat Oct 31 at Portage SC · Sun Nov 1 at TKO Premier SC See all 4 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 24	at	Liverpool FC-IA Michigan NO G 12/13 GMA (8th)	0–2	8%
·	Sat Oct 31	at	Portage SC (2nd)	0–5	0%
·	Sun Nov 1	at	TKO Premier SC (11th)	0–1	15%
·	Sat Dec 5	at	Nationals SC-CA GMA (3rd)	0–5	0%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.

How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (1.68 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.