FC Dayton
ECNL Regional League Girls · GLA GU18/19 · 6 teams · FC Dayton (all teams)
Next game — Sat Dec 12, 10:00 AM
●●●●○ Tough to win
Most likely score 2–2 (expected goals 2.4 for, 2.7 against · 1.24 expected points)
| Season so far | FC Dayton | Elite FC |
|---|---|---|
| Position | 5th | 4th |
| Record (W-D-L) | 0-0-0 | 0-0-0 |
| Points per game | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Goals for / game | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| Goals against / game | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| Clean sheets | 0 | 0 |
| Held scoreless | 0 | 0 |
| Form (recent first) | — | — |
| Biggest win | — | — |
| Worst loss | — | — |
| Model rating (net goals vs avg) | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Schedule faced (avg opp. rating) | +0.00 | +0.00 |
Game plan
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They struggle to score
Elite FC average 0.0 goals/game (league avg 2.5); blanked in 0 of 0.A higher defensive line and an aggressive counter-press are low-risk here. Keep the back line connected to midfield so one long ball doesn't turn into a 1v1 — that is the only way this opponent scores.
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Underdog — play free, stay organised
Model gives 35%; a draw (18%) would be a good result.Keep the shape compact, make them play in front of you, and hit space behind their full-backs on transitions. A point here is a win for the table; a win is a season-changer.
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Away game
Kickoff 10:00 AM at Shelly Park.Arrive 75 minutes early to see the surface and goal size; plan a longer dynamic warm-up after a drive. Away wins are worth the same 3 points — keep the routine identical to home.
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What a win does
Elite FC sit 4th on 0.00 PPG; we are on 0.00.A point moves us above Elite FC on PPG (if they don't play). GD is the next tiebreak, so every goal matters — keep attacking with a lead.
If Saturday goes…
Where we'd sit after the Elite FC game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (FC Dayton – Elite FC) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 2 other games that week (Mon Dec 7 – Sun Dec 13); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.
| Our result | Rivals don't play | Likely results | Every rival wins |
|---|---|---|---|
| – Draw · 1.00 PPG |
2nd▲ up 3 | 4th▲ up 1 | 4th▲ up 1 |
| Win 3.00 PPG |
1st▲ up 4 | 1st▲ up 4 | 3rd▲ up 2 |
| Draw 1.00 PPG |
2nd▲ up 3 | 4th▲ up 1 | 4th▲ up 1 |
| Loss 0.00 PPG |
6th▼ down 1 | 6th▼ down 1 | 6th▼ down 1 |
Can we move up this round? Yes. With a 2–2 draw we finish as high as 1st if every rival drops points, and as low as 4th if every rival wins.
Where we finish
2,000 simulated seasons
- 1st 18%
- 2nd 16%
- 3rd 16%
- 4th 18%
- 5th 15%
- 6th 18%
Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.
Climbing the table
What it takes to pass each team above us, from our 13 remaining known games (max 3.00 PPG if we win out).
| # | Team | PPG | Proj. | To pass them |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Cincinnati Elite FC | 0.00 (+0.00) | 4th (1.45) | Already ahead |
| 2 | Columbus Force | 0.00 (+0.00) | 1st (1.45) | Already ahead |
| 3 | Cuyahoga Valley Soccer Academy | 0.00 (+0.00) | 5th (1.45) | Already ahead |
| 4 | Elite FC | 0.00 (+0.00) | 2nd (1.45) | Already ahead |
The path
run-in difficulty +0.00 · 5th hardest of 6
| Date | Opponent | Where | Difficulty | Win | Likely | Exp. pts | Run. PPG | Priority |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat Dec 12 10:00 AM |
Elite FC 4th · 0-0-0 · GD +0 |
Away Shelly Park |
●●●●○ Tough | 35% |
2–2 | 1.24 | 1.24 | Upside |
| Sun Dec 13 12:00 PM |
Columbus Force 2nd · 0-0-0 · GD +0 |
Away Kilbourne Run Sports Park- 4625 Westerville Rd Col |
●●●●○ Tough | 35% |
2–2 | 1.24 | 1.24 | Upside |
| Sat Dec 19 TBD |
Manta |
Home |
●●●○○ Toss-up | 47% |
2–2 | 1.58 | 1.35 | Swing game |
| Sat Feb 6 TBD |
Cincinnati Elite FC 1st · 0-0-0 · GD +0 |
Away |
●●●●○ Tough | 35% |
2–2 | 1.24 | 1.33 | Upside |
| Sat Mar 6 TBD |
Columbus Force 2nd · 0-0-0 · GD +0 |
Home |
●●●○○ Toss-up | 47% |
2–2 | 1.58 | 1.38 | Swing game |
| Sun Mar 7 TBD |
Elite FC 4th · 0-0-0 · GD +0 |
Home |
●●●○○ Toss-up | 47% |
2–2 | 1.58 | 1.41 | Swing game |
| Sat Apr 10 TBD |
WNY Flash Rochester |
Home |
●●●○○ Toss-up | 47% |
2–2 | 1.58 | 1.43 | Swing game |
| Sun Apr 11 TBD |
WNY Flash Erie |
Home |
●●●○○ Toss-up | 47% |
2–2 | 1.58 | 1.45 | Swing game |
| Sun Apr 25 TBD |
Cincinnati Elite FC 1st · 0-0-0 · GD +0 |
Home |
●●●○○ Toss-up | 47% |
2–2 | 1.58 | 1.47 | Swing game |
| Sat May 8 TBD |
T3FC 6th · 0-0-0 · GD +0 |
Home |
●●●○○ Toss-up | 47% |
2–2 | 1.58 | 1.48 | Swing game |
| Sun May 9 TBD |
Cuyahoga Valley Soccer Academy 3rd · 0-0-0 · GD +0 |
Home |
●●●○○ Toss-up | 47% |
2–2 | 1.58 | 1.49 | Swing game |
| Sat May 15 TBD |
Cuyahoga Valley Soccer Academy 3rd · 0-0-0 · GD +0 |
Away |
●●●●○ Tough | 35% |
2–2 | 1.24 | 1.47 | Upside |
| Sun May 16 TBD |
T3FC 6th · 0-0-0 · GD +0 |
Away |
●●●●○ Tough | 35% |
2–2 | 1.24 | 1.45 | Upside |
"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.
Standings
| # | Team | GP | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | PPG | Form | SoS | Run-in | Top 4 | Exp. finish | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Cincinnati Elite FC | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | +0 | 0 | 0.00 | — | +0.00 | — | — | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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No games played yet. Next: Sat Dec 12 at Columbus Force · Sun Dec 13 at Elite FC · Sat Dec 19 vs Canton Force See all 13 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 2 | Columbus Force | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | +0 | 0 | 0.00 | — | +0.00 | — | — | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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No games played yet. Next: Sat Dec 12 vs Cincinnati Elite FC · Sun Dec 13 vs FC Dayton · Sat Dec 19 vs Northern Steel See all 13 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 3 | Cuyahoga Valley Soccer Academy | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | +0 | 0 | 0.00 | — | +0.00 | — | — | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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No games played yet. Next: Sat Dec 19 vs WNY Flash Erie · Sat Feb 6 vs Columbus Force · Sun Feb 7 vs Elite FC See all 13 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 4 | Elite FC | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | +0 | 0 | 0.00 | — | +0.00 | — | — | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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No games played yet. Next: Sat Dec 12 vs FC Dayton · Sun Dec 13 vs Cincinnati Elite FC · Sat Feb 6 at T3FC See all 13 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 5 | FC Dayton | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | +0 | 0 | 0.00 | — | +0.00 | — | — | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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No games played yet. Next: Sat Dec 12 at Elite FC · Sun Dec 13 at Columbus Force · Sat Dec 19 vs Manta See all 13 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 6 | T3FC | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | +0 | 0 | 0.00 | — | +0.00 | — | — | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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No games played yet. Next: Sat Feb 6 vs Elite FC · Sun Feb 7 vs Columbus Force · Sat Mar 6 vs Cuyahoga Valley Soccer Academy See all 13 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.
How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (2.50 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.