Northern Steel
ECNL Regional League Girls · GLA GU18/19 · 6 teams · Northern Steel (all teams)
Next game — Sat Nov 21, TBD
Venue TBD
●●●○○ Toss-up to win
Most likely score 2–2 (expected goals 2.7 for, 2.4 against · 1.58 expected points)
| Season so far | Northern Steel | WNY Flash Erie |
|---|---|---|
| Position | 3rd | 5th |
| Record (W-D-L) | 0-0-0 | 0-0-0 |
| Points per game | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Goals for / game | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| Goals against / game | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| Clean sheets | 0 | 0 |
| Held scoreless | 0 | 0 |
| Form (recent first) | — | — |
| Biggest win | — | — |
| Worst loss | — | — |
| Model rating (net goals vs avg) | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Schedule faced (avg opp. rating) | +0.00 | +0.00 |
Game plan
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They struggle to score
WNY Flash Erie average 0.0 goals/game (league avg 2.5); blanked in 0 of 0.A higher defensive line and an aggressive counter-press are low-risk here. Keep the back line connected to midfield so one long ball doesn't turn into a 1v1 — that is the only way this opponent scores.
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Swing game — small margins
Win 47% / draw 18% / loss 35%.Games like this are decided by one set piece or one transition. Prioritise the strongest XI for the full game, be disciplined with fouls near the box, and have a clear late-game plan for both "protect the lead" and "chase".
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What a win does
Manta sit 2nd on 0.00 PPG; we are on 0.00.A point moves us above Manta on PPG (if they don't play). GD is the next tiebreak, so every goal matters — keep attacking with a lead.
If Saturday goes…
Where we'd sit after the WNY Flash Erie game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (Northern Steel – WNY Flash Erie) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 2 other games that week (Mon Nov 16 – Sun Nov 22); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.
| Our result | Rivals don't play | Likely results | Every rival wins |
|---|---|---|---|
| – Draw · 1.00 PPG |
1st▲ up 2 | 3rd— holds | 4th▼ down 1 |
| Win 3.00 PPG |
1st▲ up 2 | 1st▲ up 2 | 2nd▲ up 1 |
| Draw 1.00 PPG |
1st▲ up 2 | 4th▼ down 1 | 4th▼ down 1 |
| Loss 0.00 PPG |
6th▼ down 3 | 6th▼ down 3 | 6th▼ down 3 |
Can we move up this round? Yes. With a 2–2 draw we finish as high as 1st if every rival drops points, and as low as 4th if every rival wins.
Where we finish
2,000 simulated seasons
- 1st 18%
- 2nd 16%
- 3rd 16%
- 4th 18%
- 5th 16%
- 6th 16%
Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.
Climbing the table
What it takes to pass each team above us, from our 13 remaining known games (max 3.00 PPG if we win out).
| # | Team | PPG | Proj. | To pass them |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Canton Force | 0.00 (+0.00) | 3rd (1.45) | Already ahead |
| 2 | Manta | 0.00 (+0.00) | 4th (1.45) | Already ahead |
The path
run-in difficulty +0.00 · 3rd hardest of 6
| Date | Opponent | Where | Difficulty | Win | Likely | Exp. pts | Run. PPG | Priority |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat Nov 21 TBD |
WNY Flash Erie 5th · 0-0-0 · GD +0 |
Home |
●●●○○ Toss-up | 47% |
2–2 | 1.58 | 1.58 | Swing game |
| Sun Nov 22 TBD |
WNY Flash Rochester 6th · 0-0-0 · GD +0 |
Home |
●●●○○ Toss-up | 47% |
2–2 | 1.58 | 1.58 | Swing game |
| Sat Dec 5 05:15 PM |
Canton Force 1st · 0-0-0 · GD +0 |
Away far trip
Walsh University |
●●●●○ Tough | 35% |
2–2 | 1.24 | 1.47 | Upside |
| Sun Dec 6 TBD |
Manta 2nd · 0-0-0 · GD +0 |
Away |
●●●●○ Tough | 35% |
2–2 | 1.24 | 1.41 | Upside |
| Sat Feb 20 TBD |
Cincinnati Elite FC |
Home |
●●●○○ Toss-up | 47% |
2–2 | 1.58 | 1.44 | Swing game |
| Sun Feb 21 TBD |
FC Dayton |
Home |
●●●○○ Toss-up | 47% |
2–2 | 1.58 | 1.47 | Swing game |
| Sat Mar 6 TBD |
Steel City FC 4th · 0-0-0 · GD +0 |
Away |
●●●●○ Tough | 35% |
2–2 | 1.24 | 1.43 | Upside |
| Sat Mar 20 TBD |
WNY Flash Rochester 6th · 0-0-0 · GD +0 |
Away |
●●●●○ Tough | 35% |
2–2 | 1.24 | 1.41 | Upside |
| Sun Mar 21 TBD |
WNY Flash Erie 5th · 0-0-0 · GD +0 |
Away |
●●●●○ Tough | 35% |
2–2 | 1.24 | 1.39 | Upside |
| Sat Apr 3 TBD |
Manta 2nd · 0-0-0 · GD +0 |
Home |
●●●○○ Toss-up | 47% |
2–2 | 1.58 | 1.41 | Swing game |
| Sun Apr 4 TBD |
Canton Force 1st · 0-0-0 · GD +0 |
Home |
●●●○○ Toss-up | 47% |
2–2 | 1.58 | 1.42 | Swing game |
| Sat Apr 24 TBD |
Elite FC |
Home |
●●●○○ Toss-up | 47% |
2–2 | 1.58 | 1.44 | Swing game |
| Sat May 8 03:00 PM |
Steel City FC 4th · 0-0-0 · GD +0 |
Home Seneca Valley High School · turf? |
●●●○○ Toss-up | 47% |
2–2 | 1.58 | 1.45 | Swing game |
"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.
Standings
| # | Team | GP | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | PPG | Form | SoS | Run-in | Top 4 | Exp. finish | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Canton Force | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | +0 | 0 | 0.00 | — | +0.00 | — | — | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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No games played yet. Next: Sat Dec 5 vs Northern Steel · Sun Dec 6 vs Steel City FC · Sat Jan 30 vs Manta See all 13 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 2 | Manta | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | +0 | 0 | 0.00 | — | +0.00 | — | — | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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No games played yet. Next: Sat Dec 5 vs Steel City FC · Sun Dec 6 vs Northern Steel · Sat Jan 30 at Canton Force See all 13 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 3 | Northern Steel | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | +0 | 0 | 0.00 | — | +0.00 | — | — | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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No games played yet. Next: Sat Nov 21 vs WNY Flash Erie · Sun Nov 22 vs WNY Flash Rochester · Sat Dec 5 at Canton Force See all 13 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 4 | Steel City FC | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | +0 | 0 | 0.00 | — | +0.00 | — | — | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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No games played yet. Next: Sat Nov 21 vs WNY Flash Rochester · Sun Nov 22 vs WNY Flash Erie · Sat Dec 5 at Manta See all 13 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 5 | WNY Flash Erie | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | +0 | 0 | 0.00 | — | +0.00 | — | — | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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No games played yet. Next: Sat Nov 21 at Northern Steel · Sun Nov 22 at Steel City FC · Sat Jan 23 vs WNY Flash Rochester See all 13 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 6 | WNY Flash Rochester | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | +0 | 0 | 0.00 | — | +0.00 | — | — | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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No games played yet. Next: Sat Nov 21 at Steel City FC · Sun Nov 22 at Northern Steel · Sat Jan 23 at WNY Flash Erie See all 13 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.
How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (2.50 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.