FC Dayton

ECNL Regional League Girls · GLA GU13 · 6 teams · FC Dayton (all teams)

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3rd

3-1-3 record · 7 played

1.43 points per game

+4 goal diff · 12–8

WWLWLlast 5

100% chance of top 4 · expected finish 3.0

+0.16 schedule faced · avg opponent rating

Next game — Sat Oct 24, 01:00 PM

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FC Dayton
3rd · 1.43 PPG

Cincinnati Elite FC
6th · 0.00 PPG

Mount Notre Dame High School, MND-Turf ↗ · turf far trip

78% 15%

windrawloss

●○○○○ Favorable to win

Most likely score 2–0 (expected goals 2.4 for, 0.6 against · 2.50 expected points)

Season so far	FC Dayton	Cincinnati Elite FC
Position	3rd	6th
Record (W-D-L)	3-1-3	0-0-6
Points per game	1.43	0.00
Goals for / game	1.7	0.3
Goals against / game	1.1	2.3
Clean sheets	3	0
Held scoreless	2	3
Form (recent first)	L W L W W	L L L L
Biggest win	5–0 at Columbus Force	—
Worst loss	0–2 at Elite FC	0–3 vs T3FC
Model rating (net goals vs avg)	+0.64	-1.12
Schedule faced (avg opp. rating)	+0.16	+0.16

Common opponents: T3FC — we 1–0; they 0–3. Cuyahoga Valley Soccer Academy — we 2–0; they 1–2. Elite FC — we 0–2; they 0–2. Columbus Force — we 5–0; they 0–1.

Game plan

They struggle to score
Cincinnati Elite FC average 0.3 goals/game (league avg 1.1); blanked in 3 of 6.
A higher defensive line and an aggressive counter-press are low-risk here. Keep the back line connected to midfield so one long ball doesn't turn into a 1v1 — that is the only way this opponent scores.
They leak goals — be greedy
Cincinnati Elite FC concede 2.3/game; worst result 0–3 vs T3FC.
Commit numbers forward, shoot early and often, and attack second balls. Goal difference is the tiebreaker on PPG, so keep playing to score for the full game — rotate players rather than pace.
Finishing wins the tight ones
Held scoreless 2 time(s): 0–2 at Elite FC, 0–1 vs Manta.
Against a low block, the first goal usually comes from a cross or a cut-back, not a dribble. Get 2–3 bodies in the box on every wide entry and finish practice this week at game speed.
Expected win — the trap is complacency
Model gives a 78% chance; likely score 2–0.
Treat the first 15 minutes like a final: score early, then the game manages itself. This is the ideal game to give rotation players real minutes in the second half without risking points.
Confidence is low on their side
Cincinnati Elite FC have lost 4 straight (form: LLLL).
Teams on losing runs go quiet after conceding. An early goal usually ends the contest — start fast.
Away game
Kickoff 01:00 PM at Mount Notre Dame High School.
Arrive 75 minutes early to see the surface and goal size; plan a longer dynamic warm-up after a drive. Away wins are worth the same 3 points — keep the routine identical to home.

If Saturday goes…

Where we'd sit after the Cincinnati Elite FC game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (FC Dayton – Cincinnati Elite FC) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 3 other games that week (Mon Oct 19 – Sun Oct 25); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.

Our result	Rivals don't play	Likely results	Every rival wins
– Win · 1.63 PPG	3rd— holds	3rd— holds	4th▼ down 1
Win 1.63 PPG	3rd— holds	3rd— holds	4th▼ down 1
Draw 1.38 PPG	3rd— holds	3rd— holds	5th▼ down 2
Loss 1.25 PPG	3rd— holds	4th▼ down 1	5th▼ down 2

Can we move up this round? No. With a 2–0 win we stay 3rd even if every rival loses, and as low as 4th if every rival wins.

Where we finish

2,000 simulated seasons

1% finish 1st

100% top 4

0% below the top 4

3.0 average finish

1st 1%
2nd 8%
3rd 76%
4th 14%
5th <1%
6th

Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.

Climbing the table

What it takes to pass each team above us, from our 8 remaining known games (max 2.27 PPG if we win out).

#	Team	PPG	Proj.	To pass them
1	Elite FC	2.50 (+1.07)	1st (2.25)	28 of 24 pts to pass their current pace, 24 for their projection
2	T3FC	2.17 (+0.74)	2nd (2.13)	23 of 24 pts to pass their current pace, 22 for their projection

How the results connect

8 chains · 6 teams

Paths of results that link FC Dayton to Cincinnati Elite FC through teams both have faced, drawn as one map. Teams sit in columns by how many games away from us they are. Each arrow is one game, pointing away from us, and its colour is the result for the team it starts from. Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain and see its net goal margin.

7 favour us

1 even

0 favour them

+3.2 goals per chain on average. The results point our way.

won lost drew· result for the team the arrow starts from

Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain, or step through them with the arrows. Open full screen and turn your phone to see the whole map.

8 chains

Position over the season

5 game days

The table re-sorted after each date on which a game was played. Shaded band is the top 4.

The path

run-in difficulty -0.20 · 6th hardest of 6

Date	Opponent	Where	Difficulty	Win	Likely	Exp. pts	Run. PPG	Priority
Sat Oct 24 01:00 PM	Cincinnati Elite FC 6th · 0-0-6 · GD -12	Away far trip Mount Notre Dame High School · turf	●○○○○ Favorable	78%	2–0	2.50	1.56	Bank it
Sat Mar 6 TBD	Columbus Force 5th · 2-1-3 · GD -13	Home	●○○○○ Favorable	86%	3–0	2.68	1.69	Bank it
Sun Mar 7 TBD	Elite FC 1st · 5-0-1 · GD +12	Home	●●●●○ Tough	27%	1–1	1.06	1.62	Upside
Sat Mar 13 TBD	Cuyahoga Valley Soccer Academy 4th · 1-2-1 · GD -1	Away	●●●○○ Toss-up	50%	1–0	1.79	1.64	Swing game
Sun Mar 14 TBD	T3FC 2nd · 4-1-1 · GD +15	Away	●●●●● Very tough	21%	0–1	0.92	1.58	Upside
Sat Apr 10 TBD	WNY Flash Rochester	Home	●●●○○ Toss-up	56%	1–0	1.93	1.61	Swing game
Sun Apr 11 TBD	WNY Flash Erie	Home	●●●○○ Toss-up	56%	1–0	1.93	1.63	Swing game
Sat Apr 17 TBD	Cincinnati Elite FC 6th · 0-0-6 · GD -12	Home	●○○○○ Favorable	84%	2–0	2.64	1.70	Bank it

"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.

Standings

Team

Pts

PPG

Form

SoS

Run-in

Top 4

Exp. finish

Elite FC

+12

2.50

WWLW

-0.60

-0.01

100%

1.5

W	Sun Oct 18	at	Columbus Force (5th)	3–0
L	Sat Oct 17	vs	Steel City FC (—)	1–2
W	Sun Sep 27	vs	Cincinnati Elite FC (6th)	2–0
W	Sat Sep 26	vs	FC Dayton (3rd)	2–0

Next: Sat Oct 24 at T3FC · Sun Oct 25 at Cuyahoga Valley Soccer Academy · Sat Mar 6 at Cincinnati Elite FC See all 9 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 24	at	T3FC (2nd)	0–0	32%
·	Sun Oct 25	at	Cuyahoga Valley Soccer Academy (4th)	1–0	61%
·	Sat Mar 6	at	Cincinnati Elite FC (6th)	2–0	85%
·	Sun Mar 7	at	FC Dayton (3rd)	1–1	47%
·	Sat Mar 13	vs	Columbus Force (5th)	3–0	92%
·	Sat Apr 10	vs	Manta (—)	1–0	68%
·	Sun Apr 11	vs	Canton Force (—)	1–0	68%
·	Sat May 15	vs	Cuyahoga Valley Soccer Academy (4th)	1–0	68%
·	Sun May 16	vs	T3FC (2nd)	0–0	38%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

T3FC

+15

2.17

LWDW

-0.20

-0.10

100%

1.7

W	Sat Oct 17	vs	WNY Flash Rochester (—)	3–0
D	Sat Sep 26	at	Cuyahoga Valley Soccer Academy (4th)	0–0
W	Sun Sep 20	at	Cincinnati Elite FC (6th)	3–0
L	Sat Sep 19	at	FC Dayton (3rd)	0–1

Next: Sat Oct 24 vs Elite FC · Sun Nov 8 vs Columbus Force · Sat Mar 13 vs Cincinnati Elite FC See all 9 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 24	vs	Elite FC (1st)	0–0	36%
·	Sun Nov 8	vs	Columbus Force (5th)	2–0	89%
·	Sat Mar 13	vs	Cincinnati Elite FC (6th)	2–0	87%
·	Sun Mar 14	vs	FC Dayton (3rd)	1–0	51%
·	Sat Mar 20	vs	Cuyahoga Valley Soccer Academy (4th)	1–0	64%
·	Sat Apr 10	vs	Steel City FC (—)	1–0	63%
·	Sun Apr 11	vs	Northern Steel (—)	1–0	63%
·	Sat May 15	at	Columbus Force (5th)	2–0	84%
·	Sun May 16	at	Elite FC (1st)	0–0	29%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

FC Dayton

1.43

WWLWL

+0.16

-0.20

100%

3.0

L	Sat Oct 17	vs	Manta (—)	0–1
W	Sun Sep 27	at	Columbus Force (5th)	5–0
L	Sat Sep 26	at	Elite FC (1st)	0–2
W	Sun Sep 20	vs	Cuyahoga Valley Soccer Academy (4th)	2–0
W	Sat Sep 19	vs	T3FC (2nd)	1–0

Next: Sat Oct 24 at Cincinnati Elite FC · Sat Mar 6 vs Columbus Force · Sun Mar 7 vs Elite FC See all 8 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 24	at	Cincinnati Elite FC (6th)	2–0	78%
·	Sat Mar 6	vs	Columbus Force (5th)	3–0	86%
·	Sun Mar 7	vs	Elite FC (1st)	1–1	27%
·	Sat Mar 13	at	Cuyahoga Valley Soccer Academy (4th)	1–0	50%
·	Sun Mar 14	at	T3FC (2nd)	0–1	21%
·	Sat Apr 10	vs	WNY Flash Rochester (—)	1–0	56%
·	Sun Apr 11	vs	WNY Flash Erie (—)	1–0	56%
·	Sat Apr 17	vs	Cincinnati Elite FC (6th)	2–0	84%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Cuyahoga Valley Soccer Academy

-1

1.25

WLD

+0.15

+0.02

89%

4.0

D	Sat Sep 26	vs	T3FC (2nd)	0–0
L	Sun Sep 20	at	FC Dayton (3rd)	0–2
W	Sat Sep 19	at	Cincinnati Elite FC (6th)	2–1

Next: Sat Oct 24 vs Columbus Force · Sun Oct 25 vs Elite FC · Sat Nov 7 vs WNY Flash Erie See all 10 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 24	vs	Columbus Force (5th)	1–0	64%
·	Sun Oct 25	vs	Elite FC (1st)	0–1	13%
·	Sat Nov 7	vs	WNY Flash Erie (—)	0–0	34%
·	Sat Mar 13	vs	FC Dayton (3rd)	0–1	22%
·	Sun Mar 14	vs	Cincinnati Elite FC (6th)	1–0	63%
·	Sat Mar 20	at	T3FC (2nd)	0–1	11%
·	Sat Apr 10	vs	Northern Steel (—)	0–0	34%
·	Sun Apr 11	vs	Steel City FC (—)	0–0	34%
·	Sat May 15	at	Elite FC (1st)	0–1	10%
·	Sun May 16	at	Columbus Force (5th)	1–0	57%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Columbus Force

-13

1.17

WLLL

+0.24

11%

4.9

L	Sun Oct 18	vs	Elite FC (1st)	0–3
L	Sat Oct 17	vs	Northern Steel (—)	0–7
L	Sun Sep 27	vs	FC Dayton (3rd)	0–5
W	Sat Sep 26	vs	Cincinnati Elite FC (6th)	1–0

Next: Sat Oct 24 at Cuyahoga Valley Soccer Academy · Sun Nov 8 at T3FC · Sat Mar 6 at FC Dayton See all 9 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 24	at	Cuyahoga Valley Soccer Academy (4th)	0–1	14%
·	Sun Nov 8	at	T3FC (2nd)	0–2	3%
·	Sat Mar 6	at	FC Dayton (3rd)	0–3	4%
·	Sun Mar 7	at	Cincinnati Elite FC (6th)	1–1	35%
·	Sat Mar 13	at	Elite FC (1st)	0–3	2%
·	Sat Apr 10	vs	Canton Force (—)	0–1	16%
·	Sun Apr 11	vs	Manta (—)	0–1	16%
·	Sat May 15	vs	T3FC (2nd)	0–2	4%
·	Sun May 16	vs	Cuyahoga Valley Soccer Academy (4th)	0–1	18%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Cincinnati Elite FC

-12

0.00

LLLL

+0.16

+0.21

6.0

L	Sun Sep 27	at	Elite FC (1st)	0–2
L	Sat Sep 26	at	Columbus Force (5th)	0–1
L	Sun Sep 20	vs	T3FC (2nd)	0–3
L	Sat Sep 19	vs	Cuyahoga Valley Soccer Academy (4th)	1–2

Next: Sat Oct 17 vs Canton Force · Sat Oct 24 vs FC Dayton · Sat Mar 6 vs Elite FC See all 9 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 17 (no score yet)	vs	Canton Force (—)	0–1	15%
·	Sat Oct 24	vs	FC Dayton (3rd)	0–2	7%
·	Sat Mar 6	vs	Elite FC (1st)	0–2	4%
·	Sun Mar 7	vs	Columbus Force (5th)	1–1	37%
·	Sat Mar 13	at	T3FC (2nd)	0–2	3%
·	Sun Mar 14	at	Cuyahoga Valley Soccer Academy (4th)	0–1	13%
·	Sat Apr 10	vs	WNY Flash Erie (—)	0–1	15%
·	Sun Apr 11	vs	WNY Flash Rochester (—)	0–1	15%
·	Sat Apr 17	at	FC Dayton (3rd)	0–2	4%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.

How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (1.06 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.