Elite FC
ECNL Regional League Girls · GLA GU13 · 6 teams · Elite FC (all teams)
Next game — Sat Oct 24, 03:00 PM
Victory Sports Park, Field 2 ↗ far trip
●●●●○ Tough to win
Most likely score 0–0 (expected goals 0.9 for, 0.9 against · 1.28 expected points)
| Season so far | Elite FC | T3FC |
|---|---|---|
| Position | 1st | 2nd |
| Record (W-D-L) | 5-0-1 | 4-1-1 |
| Points per game | 2.50 | 2.17 |
| Goals for / game | 2.5 | 2.7 |
| Goals against / game | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| Clean sheets | 3 | 3 |
| Held scoreless | 0 | 2 |
| Form (recent first) | W L W W | W D W L |
| Biggest win | 3–0 at Columbus Force | 3–0 at Cincinnati Elite FC |
| Worst loss | 1–2 vs Steel City FC | 0–1 at FC Dayton |
| Model rating (net goals vs avg) | +1.09 | +0.91 |
| Schedule faced (avg opp. rating) | -0.60 | -0.20 |
Common opponents: FC Dayton — we 2–0; they 0–1. Cincinnati Elite FC — we 2–0; they 3–0.
Game plan
-
Respect their attack
T3FC score 2.7/game — well above the league's 1.1.Deny the easy goals first: compact shape between the lines, no fouls in shooting range, and a plan for their best outlet. Score first and make them chase.
-
Hard to break down
T3FC concede only 0.2/game with 3 clean sheet(s).Patience and width: move the ball quickly side to side to pull the block apart, and treat set pieces as your best chance — rehearse two corner routines and a near-post free-kick delivery.
-
Underdog — play free, stay organised
Model gives 32%; a draw (33%) would be a good result.Keep the shape compact, make them play in front of you, and hit space behind their full-backs on transitions. A point here is a win for the table; a win is a season-changer.
-
Away game
Kickoff 03:00 PM at Victory Sports Park.Arrive 75 minutes early to see the surface and goal size; plan a longer dynamic warm-up after a drive. Away wins are worth the same 3 points — keep the routine identical to home.
If Saturday goes…
Where we'd sit after the T3FC game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (Elite FC – T3FC) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 2 other games that week (Mon Oct 19 – Sun Oct 25); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.
| Our result | Rivals don't play | Likely results | Every rival wins |
|---|---|---|---|
| – Draw · 2.29 PPG |
1st— holds | 1st— holds | 1st— holds |
| Win 2.57 PPG |
1st— holds | 1st— holds | 1st— holds |
| Draw 2.29 PPG |
1st— holds | 1st— holds | 1st— holds |
| Loss 2.14 PPG |
2nd▼ down 1 | 2nd▼ down 1 | 2nd▼ down 1 |
Can we move up this round? No. With a 0–0 draw we stay 1st even if every rival loses, whatever the rivals do.
Where we finish
2,000 simulated seasons
- 1st 59%
- 2nd 37%
- 3rd 4%
- 4th <1%
- 5th
- 6th
Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.
Climbing the table
Top of the table. The job is to stay there: see the path below for where points are most at risk.
How the results connect
6 chains · 6 teams
Paths of results that link Elite FC to T3FC through teams both have faced, drawn as one map. Teams sit in columns by how many games away from us they are. Each arrow is one game, pointing away from us, and its colour is the result for the team it starts from. Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain and see its net goal margin.
Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain, or step through them with the arrows. Open full screen and turn your phone to see the whole map.
Step through the chains with the arrows, or tap one on the map.
Position over the season
5 game days
The table re-sorted after each date on which a game was played. Shaded band is the top 4.
The path
run-in difficulty -0.01 · 4th hardest of 6
| Date | Opponent | Where | Difficulty | Win | Likely | Exp. pts | Run. PPG | Priority |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat Oct 24 03:00 PM |
T3FC 2nd · 4-1-1 · GD +15 |
Away far trip
Victory Sports Park |
●●●●○ Tough | 32% |
0–0 | 1.28 | 2.33 | Upside |
| Sun Oct 25 09:00 AM |
Cuyahoga Valley Soccer Academy 4th · 1-2-1 · GD -1 |
Away far trip
Serpentini Stadium · turf? |
●●○○○ Lean win | 61% |
1–0 | 2.09 | 2.30 | Swing game |
| Sat Mar 6 TBD |
Cincinnati Elite FC 6th · 0-0-6 · GD -12 |
Away |
●○○○○ Favorable | 85% |
2–0 | 2.67 | 2.34 | Bank it |
| Sun Mar 7 TBD |
FC Dayton 3rd · 3-1-3 · GD +4 |
Away |
●●●○○ Toss-up | 47% |
1–1 | 1.67 | 2.27 | Swing game |
| Sat Mar 13 09:00 AM |
Columbus Force 5th · 2-1-3 · GD -13 |
Home Shelly Park |
●○○○○ Favorable | 92% |
3–0 | 2.81 | 2.32 | Bank it |
| Sat Apr 10 02:00 PM |
Manta |
Home Shelly Park |
●●○○○ Lean win | 68% |
1–0 | 2.24 | 2.31 | Swing game |
| Sun Apr 11 02:00 PM |
Canton Force |
Home Shelly Park |
●●○○○ Lean win | 68% |
1–0 | 2.24 | 2.31 | Swing game |
| Sat May 15 10:00 AM |
Cuyahoga Valley Soccer Academy 4th · 1-2-1 · GD -1 |
Home Shelly Park |
●●○○○ Lean win | 68% |
1–0 | 2.27 | 2.30 | Swing game |
| Sun May 16 01:00 PM |
T3FC 2nd · 4-1-1 · GD +15 |
Home Shelly Park |
●●●●○ Tough | 38% |
0–0 | 1.47 | 2.25 | Upside |
"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.
Standings
| # | Team | GP | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | PPG | Form | SoS | Run-in | Top 4 | Exp. finish | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Elite FC | 6 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 15 | 3 | +12 | 15 | 2.50 | WWLW | -0.60 | -0.01 | 100% | 1.5 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 at T3FC · Sun Oct 25 at Cuyahoga Valley Soccer Academy · Sat Mar 6 at Cincinnati Elite FC See all 9 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2 | T3FC | 6 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 16 | 1 | +15 | 13 | 2.17 | LWDW | -0.20 | -0.10 | 100% | 1.7 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 vs Elite FC · Sun Nov 8 vs Columbus Force · Sat Mar 13 vs Cincinnati Elite FC See all 9 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 3 | FC Dayton | 7 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 12 | 8 | +4 | 10 | 1.43 | WWLWL | +0.16 | -0.20 | 100% | 3.0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 at Cincinnati Elite FC · Sat Mar 6 vs Columbus Force · Sun Mar 7 vs Elite FC See all 8 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 4 | Cuyahoga Valley Soccer Academy | 4 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 4 | -1 | 5 | 1.25 | WLD | +0.15 | +0.02 | 89% | 4.0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 vs Columbus Force · Sun Oct 25 vs Elite FC · Sat Nov 7 vs WNY Flash Erie See all 10 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 5 | Columbus Force | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 17 | -13 | 7 | 1.17 | WLLL | +0.24 | +0.24 | 11% | 4.9 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 at Cuyahoga Valley Soccer Academy · Sun Nov 8 at T3FC · Sat Mar 6 at FC Dayton See all 9 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 6 | Cincinnati Elite FC | 6 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 2 | 14 | -12 | 0 | 0.00 | LLLL | +0.16 | +0.21 | 0% | 6.0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 17 vs Canton Force · Sat Oct 24 vs FC Dayton · Sat Mar 6 vs Elite FC See all 9 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.
How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (1.06 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.