Toca Fusion Premier
ECNL Regional League Girls · Frontier GU17 · 7 teams · Toca Fusion Athletic Club (all teams)
Next game — Sat Oct 24, 11:00 AM
Paragon Star Sports Complex , Field 7 ↗
●○○○○ Favorable to win
Most likely score 4–1 (expected goals 4.0 for, 1.4 against · 2.56 expected points)
| Season so far | Toca Fusion Premier | Kansas City Surf |
|---|---|---|
| Position | 2nd | 5th |
| Record (W-D-L) | 7-1-4 | 1-2-3 |
| Points per game | 1.83 | 0.83 |
| Goals for / game | 2.9 | 2.0 |
| Goals against / game | 1.6 | 3.8 |
| Clean sheets | 6 | 1 |
| Held scoreless | 2 | 0 |
| Form (recent first) | L D W W W | L L D L D |
| Biggest win | 8–0 vs West Side Alliance Tulsa | 6–0 vs West Side Alliance Tulsa |
| Worst loss | 0–4 vs FC Wichita Red | 1–7 at West Side Alliance OKC |
| Model rating (net goals vs avg) | +1.62 | -1.04 |
| Schedule faced (avg opp. rating) | -1.31 | +0.09 |
Already played this season: Sat Oct 3 6–1 vs Kansas City Surf (W)
Common opponents: West Side Alliance Tulsa — we 8–0, 5–0; they 6–0. Broken Arrow Soccer Club — we 3–0, 6–0; they 1–1. West Side Alliance OKC — we 0–2; they 1–7, 1–7. Kansas Rush Blue — we 4–0; they 2–2.
Game plan
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They leak goals — be greedy
Kansas City Surf concede 3.8/game; worst result 1–7 at West Side Alliance OKC.Commit numbers forward, shoot early and often, and attack second balls. Goal difference is the tiebreaker on PPG, so keep playing to score for the full game — rotate players rather than pace.
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Finishing wins the tight ones
Held scoreless 2 time(s): 0–2 at West Side Alliance OKC, 0–4 vs FC Wichita Red.Against a low block, the first goal usually comes from a cross or a cut-back, not a dribble. Get 2–3 bodies in the box on every wide entry and finish practice this week at game speed.
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Expected win — the trap is complacency
Model gives a 82% chance; likely score 4–1.Treat the first 15 minutes like a final: score early, then the game manages itself. This is the ideal game to give rotation players real minutes in the second half without risking points.
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Away game
Kickoff 11:00 AM at Paragon Star Sports Complex .Arrive 75 minutes early to see the surface and goal size; plan a longer dynamic warm-up after a drive. Away wins are worth the same 3 points — keep the routine identical to home.
If Saturday goes…
Where we'd sit after the Kansas City Surf game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (Toca Fusion Premier – Kansas City Surf) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 2 other games that week (Mon Oct 19 – Sun Oct 25); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.
| Our result | Rivals don't play | Likely results | Every rival wins |
|---|---|---|---|
| – Win · 1.92 PPG |
2nd— holds | 2nd— holds | 2nd— holds |
| Win 1.92 PPG |
2nd— holds | 2nd— holds | 2nd— holds |
| Draw 1.77 PPG |
2nd— holds | 2nd— holds | 2nd— holds |
| Loss 1.69 PPG |
2nd— holds | 2nd— holds | 2nd— holds |
Can we move up this round? No. With a 4–1 win we stay 2nd even if every rival loses, whatever the rivals do.
Where we finish
2,000 simulated seasons
- 1st
- 2nd 81%
- 3rd 19%
- 4th <1%
- 5th
- 6th
- 7th
Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.
Climbing the table
What it takes to pass each team above us, from our 6 remaining known games (max 2.22 PPG if we win out).
| # | Team | PPG | Proj. | To pass them |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | West Side Alliance OKC | 2.67 (+0.84) | 1st (2.66) | 27 of 18 pts to pass their current pace, 26 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule |
How the results connect
33 chains · 6 teams
Paths of results that link Toca Fusion Premier to Kansas City Surf through teams both have faced, drawn as one map. Teams sit in columns by how many games away from us they are. Each arrow is one game, pointing away from us, and its colour is the result for the team it starts from. Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain and see its net goal margin.
Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain, or step through them with the arrows. Open full screen and turn your phone to see the whole map.
Step through the chains with the arrows, or tap one on the map.
Position over the season
12 game days
The table re-sorted after each date on which a game was played. Shaded band is the top 4.
The path
run-in difficulty +0.29 · 3rd hardest of 7
| Date | Opponent | Where | Difficulty | Win | Likely | Exp. pts | Run. PPG | Priority |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sun Sep 13 TBD no score posted |
Kansas Rush Blue 3rd · 4-2-5 · GD -10 |
Away |
●●○○○ Lean win | 70% |
2–1 | 2.24 | 1.86 | Swing game |
| Sat Oct 24 11:00 AM |
Kansas City Surf 5th · 1-2-3 · GD -11 |
Away Paragon Star Sports Complex |
●○○○○ Favorable | 82% |
4–1 | 2.56 | 1.91 | Bank it |
| Sun Oct 25 10:00 AM |
FC Wichita Navy 4th · 2-0-4 · GD +2 |
Away far trip
Northwest YMCA Sports Complex |
●●●○○ Toss-up | 57% |
2–1 | 1.88 | 1.91 | Swing game |
| Sun Nov 15 11:00 AM |
West Side Alliance OKC 1st · 8-0-1 · GD +31 |
Home Compass Minerals National Performance Center |
●●●●○ Tough | 33% |
1–2 | 1.20 | 1.87 | Upside |
| Sat Nov 21 02:00 PM |
Oklahoma Cosmos |
Home Paragon Star Sports Complex |
●●○○○ Lean win | 75% |
3–1 | 2.38 | 1.90 | Bank it |
| Sun Nov 22 11:00 AM |
OK Energy FC Frontier |
Home Paragon Star Sports Complex |
●●○○○ Lean win | 75% |
3–1 | 2.38 | 1.92 | Bank it |
"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.
Standings
| # | Team | GP | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | PPG | Form | SoS | Run-in | Top 4 | Exp. finish | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| 1 | West Side Alliance OKC | 9 | 8 | 0 | 1 | 39 | 8 | +31 | 24 | 2.67 | WWWWW | -0.01 | -1.14 | 100% | 1.0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 17 vs Broken Arrow Soccer Club · Sun Oct 18 vs West Side Alliance Tulsa · Sat Oct 24 vs Sporting Springfield See all 10 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 2 | Toca Fusion Premier | 12 | 7 | 1 | 4 | 35 | 19 | +16 | 22 | 1.83 | WWWDL | -1.31 | +0.29 | 100% | 2.2 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Sep 13 at Kansas Rush Blue · Sat Oct 24 at Kansas City Surf · Sun Oct 25 at FC Wichita Navy See all 6 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 3 | Kansas Rush Blue | 11 | 4 | 2 | 5 | 23 | 33 | -10 | 14 | 1.27 | WDLLD | -1.30 | +0.59 | 64% | 4.3 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Sep 13 vs Toca Fusion Premier · Sat Oct 3 vs FC Wichita Navy · Sat Oct 24 at FC Wichita Navy See all 7 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 4 | FC Wichita Navy | 6 | 2 | 0 | 4 | 15 | 13 | +2 | 6 | 1.00 | LLWWL | -0.11 | -0.66 | 96% | 3.0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Sep 26 at Kansas City Surf · Sat Oct 3 at Kansas Rush Blue · Sat Oct 24 vs Kansas Rush Blue See all 11 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 5 | Kansas City Surf | 6 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 12 | 23 | -11 | 5 | 0.83 | DLDLL | +0.09 | -0.39 | 40% | 4.5 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Sep 26 vs FC Wichita Navy · Sat Oct 24 vs Toca Fusion Premier · Sun Oct 25 vs Kansas Rush Blue See all 10 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 6 | West Side Alliance Tulsa | 12 | 2 | 0 | 10 | 3 | 85 | -82 | 6 | 0.50 | LLLWW | -0.05 | +0.36 | 0% | 6.7 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Oct 18 at West Side Alliance OKC · Sat Oct 31 vs Kansas City Surf BLUE · Sat Nov 7 vs Kansas City Surf See all 6 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 7 | Broken Arrow Soccer Club | 12 | 1 | 1 | 10 | 8 | 55 | -47 | 4 | 0.33 | LLWLL | -0.37 | +0.03 | 0% | 6.3 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 17 at West Side Alliance OKC · Sun Nov 1 vs Kansas City Surf BLUE · Sat Nov 7 vs FC Wichita Navy See all 6 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.
How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (2.23 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.