FC Wichita Navy
ECNL Regional League Girls · Frontier GU17 · 7 teams · FC Wichita (all teams)
Next game — Sat Oct 24, 11:00 AM
Maize South High School, Soccer Field ↗
●●○○○ Lean win to win
Most likely score 2–1 (expected goals 2.9 for, 1.8 against · 1.98 expected points)
| Season so far | FC Wichita Navy | Kansas Rush Blue |
|---|---|---|
| Position | 4th | 3rd |
| Record (W-D-L) | 2-0-4 | 4-2-5 |
| Points per game | 1.00 | 1.27 |
| Goals for / game | 2.5 | 2.1 |
| Goals against / game | 2.2 | 3.0 |
| Clean sheets | 1 | 3 |
| Held scoreless | 2 | 2 |
| Form (recent first) | L W W L L | D L L D W |
| Biggest win | 8–0 vs West Side Alliance Tulsa | 7–0 at West Side Alliance Tulsa |
| Worst loss | 0–2 at West Side Alliance OKC | 3–13 vs FC Wichita Red |
| Model rating (net goals vs avg) | +0.55 | -0.22 |
| Schedule faced (avg opp. rating) | -0.11 | -1.30 |
Common opponents: West Side Alliance OKC — we 0–2, 2–4; they 0–3. Broken Arrow Soccer Club — we 4–1; they 2–0, 3–1. West Side Alliance Tulsa — we 8–0; they 3–0, 7–0. Toca Fusion Premier — we 0–2; they 0–4.
Game plan
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Finishing wins the tight ones
Held scoreless 2 time(s): 0–2 at West Side Alliance OKC, 0–2 at Toca Fusion Premier.Against a low block, the first goal usually comes from a cross or a cut-back, not a dribble. Get 2–3 bodies in the box on every wide entry and finish practice this week at game speed.
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Swing game — small margins
Win 60% / draw 17% / loss 23%.Games like this are decided by one set piece or one transition. Prioritise the strongest XI for the full game, be disciplined with fouls near the box, and have a clear late-game plan for both "protect the lead" and "chase".
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What a win does
Kansas Rush Blue sit 3rd on 1.27 PPG; we are on 1.00.A point moves us above Kansas Rush Blue on PPG (if they don't play). GD is the next tiebreak, so every goal matters — keep attacking with a lead.
If Saturday goes…
Where we'd sit after the Kansas Rush Blue game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (FC Wichita Navy – Kansas Rush Blue) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 2 other games that week (Mon Oct 19 – Sun Oct 25); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.
| Our result | Rivals don't play | Likely results | Every rival wins |
|---|---|---|---|
| – Win · 1.29 PPG |
3rd▲ up 1 | 3rd▲ up 1 | 5th▼ down 1 |
| Win 1.29 PPG |
3rd▲ up 1 | 3rd▲ up 1 | 5th▼ down 1 |
| Draw 1.00 PPG |
4th— holds | 4th— holds | 5th▼ down 1 |
| Loss 0.86 PPG |
4th— holds | 4th— holds | 5th▼ down 1 |
Can we move up this round? Yes. With a 2–1 win we finish as high as 3rd if every rival drops points, and as low as 5th if every rival wins.
Where we finish
2,000 simulated seasons
- 1st
- 2nd 18%
- 3rd 65%
- 4th 13%
- 5th 4%
- 6th <1%
- 7th
Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.
Climbing the table
What it takes to pass each team above us, from our 11 remaining known games (max 2.29 PPG if we win out).
| # | Team | PPG | Proj. | To pass them |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | West Side Alliance OKC | 2.67 (+1.67) | 1st (2.66) | 40 of 33 pts to pass their current pace, 40 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule |
| 2 | Toca Fusion Premier | 1.83 (+0.83) | 2nd (1.92) | 26 of 33 pts to pass their current pace, 27 for their projection |
| 3 | Kansas Rush Blue | 1.27 (+0.27) | 4th (1.19) | A point next game |
How the results connect
33 chains · 6 teams
Paths of results that link FC Wichita Navy to Kansas Rush Blue through teams both have faced, drawn as one map. Teams sit in columns by how many games away from us they are. Each arrow is one game, pointing away from us, and its colour is the result for the team it starts from. Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain and see its net goal margin.
Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain, or step through them with the arrows. Open full screen and turn your phone to see the whole map.
Step through the chains with the arrows, or tap one on the map.
Position over the season
12 game days
The table re-sorted after each date on which a game was played. Shaded band is the top 4.
The path
run-in difficulty -0.66 · 6th hardest of 7
| Date | Opponent | Where | Difficulty | Win | Likely | Exp. pts | Run. PPG | Priority |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat Sep 26 11:00 AM no score posted |
Kansas City Surf 5th · 1-2-3 · GD -11 |
Away far trip
Blue Valley High School |
●●○○○ Lean win | 64% |
3–2 | 2.08 | 1.15 | Swing game |
| Sat Oct 3 11:00 AM no score posted |
Kansas Rush Blue 3rd · 4-2-5 · GD -10 |
Away far trip
Compass Minerals National Performance Center |
●●●○○ Toss-up | 49% |
2–2 | 1.67 | 1.22 | Swing game |
| Sat Oct 24 11:00 AM |
Kansas Rush Blue 3rd · 4-2-5 · GD -10 |
Home Maize South High School |
●●○○○ Lean win | 60% |
2–1 | 1.98 | 1.30 | Swing game |
| Sun Oct 25 10:00 AM |
Toca Fusion Premier 2nd · 7-1-4 · GD +16 |
Home Northwest YMCA Sports Complex |
●●●●● Very tough | 25% |
1–2 | 0.93 | 1.27 | Upside |
| Sat Nov 7 01:00 PM |
Broken Arrow Soccer Club 7th · 1-1-10 · GD -47 |
Away far trip
Indian Springs Soccer Complex |
●○○○○ Favorable | 83% |
3–0 | 2.60 | 1.39 | Bank it |
| Sun Nov 8 11:00 AM |
West Side Alliance Tulsa 6th · 2-0-10 · GD -82 |
Away far trip
RiverCity Parks |
●○○○○ Favorable | 96% |
5–0 | 2.92 | 1.51 | Bank it |
| Sat Dec 5 TBD |
Arkansas Rising |
Home |
●●●○○ Toss-up | 56% |
2–1 | 1.86 | 1.54 | Swing game |
| Sun Dec 6 10:00 AM |
Arkansas Comets FC |
Home Stryker Soccer Complex |
●●●○○ Toss-up | 56% |
2–1 | 1.86 | 1.56 | Swing game |
| Sat Dec 12 10:00 AM |
Kansas City Surf 5th · 1-2-3 · GD -11 |
Home Stryker Soccer Complex · turf? |
●●○○○ Lean win | 75% |
3–1 | 2.36 | 1.62 | Bank it |
| Sat Jan 30 TBD |
FC Tulsa Academy |
Home |
●●●○○ Toss-up | 56% |
2–1 | 1.86 | 1.63 | Swing game |
| Sun Jan 31 TBD |
Sporting Springfield |
Home |
●●●○○ Toss-up | 56% |
2–1 | 1.86 | 1.65 | Swing game |
"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.
Standings
| # | Team | GP | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | PPG | Form | SoS | Run-in | Top 4 | Exp. finish | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| 1 | West Side Alliance OKC | 9 | 8 | 0 | 1 | 39 | 8 | +31 | 24 | 2.67 | WWWWW | -0.01 | -1.14 | 100% | 1.0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 17 vs Broken Arrow Soccer Club · Sun Oct 18 vs West Side Alliance Tulsa · Sat Oct 24 vs Sporting Springfield See all 10 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 2 | Toca Fusion Premier | 12 | 7 | 1 | 4 | 35 | 19 | +16 | 22 | 1.83 | WWWDL | -1.31 | +0.29 | 100% | 2.2 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Sep 13 at Kansas Rush Blue · Sat Oct 24 at Kansas City Surf · Sun Oct 25 at FC Wichita Navy See all 6 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 3 | Kansas Rush Blue | 11 | 4 | 2 | 5 | 23 | 33 | -10 | 14 | 1.27 | WDLLD | -1.30 | +0.59 | 66% | 4.2 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Sep 13 vs Toca Fusion Premier · Sat Oct 3 vs FC Wichita Navy · Sat Oct 24 at FC Wichita Navy See all 7 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 4 | FC Wichita Navy | 6 | 2 | 0 | 4 | 15 | 13 | +2 | 6 | 1.00 | LLWWL | -0.11 | -0.66 | 96% | 3.0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Sep 26 at Kansas City Surf · Sat Oct 3 at Kansas Rush Blue · Sat Oct 24 vs Kansas Rush Blue See all 11 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 5 | Kansas City Surf | 6 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 12 | 23 | -11 | 5 | 0.83 | DLDLL | +0.09 | -0.39 | 39% | 4.6 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Sep 26 vs FC Wichita Navy · Sat Oct 24 vs Toca Fusion Premier · Sun Oct 25 vs Kansas Rush Blue See all 10 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 6 | West Side Alliance Tulsa | 12 | 2 | 0 | 10 | 3 | 85 | -82 | 6 | 0.50 | LLLWW | -0.05 | +0.36 | 0% | 6.7 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Oct 18 at West Side Alliance OKC · Sat Oct 31 vs Kansas City Surf BLUE · Sat Nov 7 vs Kansas City Surf See all 6 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 7 | Broken Arrow Soccer Club | 12 | 1 | 1 | 10 | 8 | 55 | -47 | 4 | 0.33 | LLWLL | -0.37 | +0.03 | 0% | 6.3 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 17 at West Side Alliance OKC · Sun Nov 1 vs Kansas City Surf BLUE · Sat Nov 7 vs FC Wichita Navy See all 6 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.
How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (2.23 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.