Oklahoma Cosmos
ECNL Regional League Girls · Frontier GU17 · 8 teams · South Lakes SC (all teams)
Next game — Sun Nov 1, 11:00 AM
South Lakes Soccer Complex, Field 7 ↗
●●●○○ Toss-up to win
Most likely score 2–1 (expected goals 2.2 for, 1.9 against · 1.59 expected points)
| Season so far | Oklahoma Cosmos | Arkansas Comets FC |
|---|---|---|
| Position | 5th | 7th |
| Record (W-D-L) | 3-0-4 | 3-1-5 |
| Points per game | 1.29 | 1.11 |
| Goals for / game | 2.9 | 3.3 |
| Goals against / game | 1.7 | 1.9 |
| Clean sheets | 0 | 2 |
| Held scoreless | 1 | 3 |
| Form (recent first) | L L L W L | L W L L L |
| Biggest win | 9–3 vs OK Energy FC Frontier | 14–0 vs West Side Alliance Tulsa |
| Worst loss | 1–3 vs West Side Alliance OKC | 0–3 vs FC Wichita Red |
| Model rating (net goals vs avg) | +0.48 | +0.41 |
| Schedule faced (avg opp. rating) | +0.05 | +1.75 |
Common opponents: Arkansas Rising — we 0–1; they 0–3. FC Tulsa Academy — we 1–2; they 2–4. Sporting Springfield — we 1–2; they 4–1.
Game plan
-
Finishing wins the tight ones
Held scoreless 1 time(s): 0–1 vs Arkansas Rising.Against a low block, the first goal usually comes from a cross or a cut-back, not a dribble. Get 2–3 bodies in the box on every wide entry and finish practice this week at game speed.
-
Swing game — small margins
Win 46% / draw 20% / loss 33%.Games like this are decided by one set piece or one transition. Prioritise the strongest XI for the full game, be disciplined with fouls near the box, and have a clear late-game plan for both "protect the lead" and "chase".
If Sunday goes…
Where we'd sit after the Arkansas Comets FC game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (Oklahoma Cosmos – Arkansas Comets FC) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 2 other games that week (Mon Oct 26 – Sun Nov 1); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.
| Our result | Rivals don't play | Likely results | Every rival wins |
|---|---|---|---|
| – Win · 1.50 PPG |
5th— holds | 5th— holds | 5th— holds |
| Win 1.50 PPG |
5th— holds | 5th— holds | 5th— holds |
| Draw 1.25 PPG |
5th— holds | 6th▼ down 1 | 6th▼ down 1 |
| Loss 1.13 PPG |
7th▼ down 2 | 7th▼ down 2 | 7th▼ down 2 |
Can we move up this round? No. With a 2–1 win we stay 5th even if every rival loses, whatever the rivals do.
Where we finish
2,000 simulated seasons
- 1st
- 2nd
- 3rd <1%
- 4th 21%
- 5th 22%
- 6th 33%
- 7th 24%
- 8th
Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.
Climbing the table
What it takes to pass each team above us, from our 12 remaining known games (max 2.37 PPG if we win out).
| # | Team | PPG | Proj. | To pass them |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Arkansas Rising | 2.73 (+1.44) | 1st (2.73) | 43 of 36 pts to pass their current pace, 43 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule |
| 2 | FC Tulsa Academy | 2.70 (+1.41) | 3rd (2.40) | 43 of 36 pts to pass their current pace, 37 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule |
| 3 | FC Wichita Red | 2.40 (+1.11) | 2nd (2.47) | 37 of 36 pts to pass their current pace, 39 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule |
| 4 | Kansas City Surf BLUE | 1.64 (+0.35) | 4th (1.50) | 23 of 36 pts to pass their current pace, 20 for their projection |
How the results connect
29 chains · 6 teams
Paths of results that link Oklahoma Cosmos to Arkansas Comets FC through teams both have faced, drawn as one map. Teams sit in columns by how many games away from us they are. Each arrow is one game, pointing away from us, and its colour is the result for the team it starts from. Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain and see its net goal margin.
Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain, or step through them with the arrows. Open full screen and turn your phone to see the whole map.
Step through the chains with the arrows, or tap one on the map.
Position over the season
16 game days
The table re-sorted after each date on which a game was played. Shaded band is the top 4.
The path
run-in difficulty +0.47 · 3rd hardest of 8
| Date | Opponent | Where | Difficulty | Win | Likely | Exp. pts | Run. PPG | Priority |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sun Nov 1 11:00 AM |
Arkansas Comets FC 7th · 3-1-5 · GD +13 |
Home South Lakes Soccer Complex |
●●●○○ Toss-up | 46% |
2–1 | 1.59 | 1.32 | Swing game |
| Sat Nov 7 02:00 PM |
Kansas City Surf BLUE 4th · 5-3-3 · GD +0 |
Away far trip
Paragon Star Sports Complex |
●●●○○ Toss-up | 43% |
1–1 | 1.52 | 1.35 | Swing game |
| Sun Nov 8 03:00 PM |
FC Wichita Red 3rd · 8-0-2 · GD +52 |
Away far trip
Stryker Soccer Complex |
●●●●● Very tough | 10% |
1–3 | 0.43 | 1.25 | Upside |
| Sun Nov 8 05:00 PM |
OK Energy FC Frontier 8th · 0-0-8 · GD -80 |
Away North Oklahoma City FC |
●○○○○ Favorable | 98% |
7–1 | 2.94 | 1.41 | Bank it |
| Sat Nov 14 01:00 PM |
Kansas City Surf |
Home South Lakes Soccer Complex |
●●●○○ Toss-up | 55% |
2–2 | 1.83 | 1.44 | Swing game |
| Sun Nov 15 TBD |
FC Wichita Navy |
Home |
●●●○○ Toss-up | 55% |
2–2 | 1.83 | 1.47 | Swing game |
| Sat Dec 5 03:00 PM |
Kansas City Surf BLUE 4th · 5-3-3 · GD +0 |
Home South Lakes Soccer Complex |
●●●○○ Toss-up | 53% |
2–1 | 1.80 | 1.50 | Swing game |
| Sun Dec 6 TBD |
FC Wichita Red 3rd · 8-0-2 · GD +52 |
Home |
●●●●● Very tough | 16% |
1–3 | 0.64 | 1.44 | Upside |
| Sat Jan 16 11:00 AM |
Arkansas Rising 1st · 10-0-1 · GD +59 |
Away far trip
Burns Park |
●●●●● Very tough | 5% |
0–3 | 0.23 | 1.36 | Upside |
| Sun Jan 17 11:00 AM |
Arkansas Comets FC 7th · 3-1-5 · GD +13 |
Away far trip
Brunner & Lay Soccer Complex |
●●●●○ Tough | 36% |
1–2 | 1.29 | 1.36 | Upside |
| Sat Jan 23 01:00 PM |
Sporting Springfield 6th · 4-0-6 · GD +5 |
Home South Lakes Soccer Complex |
●●●○○ Toss-up | 54% |
2–1 | 1.82 | 1.38 | Swing game |
| Sun Jan 24 11:00 AM |
FC Tulsa Academy 2nd · 9-0-1 · GD +44 |
Home South Lakes Soccer Complex |
●●●●● Very tough | 20% |
1–3 | 0.74 | 1.35 | Upside |
"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.
Standings
| # | Team | GP | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | PPG | Form | SoS | Run-in | Top 4 | Exp. finish | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| 1 | Arkansas Rising | 11 | 10 | 0 | 1 | 64 | 5 | +59 | 30 | 2.73 | WWWWW | +0.10 | -0.46 | 100% | 1.2 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Nov 7 vs Kansas Rush Blue · Sun Nov 8 vs Toca Fusion Premier · Sat Nov 14 at Arkansas Comets FC See all 7 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 2 | FC Tulsa Academy | 10 | 9 | 0 | 1 | 58 | 14 | +44 | 27 | 2.70 | WWLWW | -0.87 | +0.88 | 100% | 2.6 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Nov 1 at FC Wichita Red · Sat Nov 21 at Arkansas Comets FC · Sun Nov 22 at Arkansas Rising See all 8 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 3 | FC Wichita Red | 10 | 8 | 0 | 2 | 62 | 10 | +52 | 24 | 2.40 | LWWWW | +1.73 | -0.92 | 100% | 2.3 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Sep 26 vs West Side Alliance OKC · Sun Oct 25 vs Kansas City Surf BLUE · Sun Nov 1 vs FC Tulsa Academy See all 11 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 4 | Kansas City Surf BLUE | 11 | 5 | 3 | 3 | 18 | 18 | +0 | 18 | 1.64 | WWWLL | +1.64 | -0.56 | 59% | 4.5 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Oct 25 at FC Wichita Red · Wed Nov 4 vs Kansas City Surf · Sat Nov 7 vs Oklahoma Cosmos See all 8 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 5 | Oklahoma Cosmos | 7 | 3 | 0 | 4 | 20 | 12 | +8 | 9 | 1.29 | LWLLL | +0.05 | +0.47 | 21% | 5.6 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Nov 1 vs Arkansas Comets FC · Sat Nov 7 at Kansas City Surf BLUE · Sun Nov 8 at FC Wichita Red See all 12 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 6 | Sporting Springfield | 10 | 4 | 0 | 6 | 29 | 24 | +5 | 12 | 1.20 | LLLWW | +0.25 | +0.40 | 1% | 6.5 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Nov 21 at Arkansas Rising · Sun Nov 22 at Arkansas Comets FC · Sat Dec 12 vs West Side Alliance Tulsa See all 8 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 7 | Arkansas Comets FC | 9 | 3 | 1 | 5 | 30 | 17 | +13 | 10 | 1.11 | LLLWL | +1.75 | -0.71 | 19% | 5.4 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 31 at OK Energy FC Frontier · Sun Nov 1 at Oklahoma Cosmos · Sat Nov 7 vs Toca Fusion Premier See all 9 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 8 | OK Energy FC Frontier | 8 | 0 | 0 | 8 | 4 | 84 | -80 | 0 | 0.00 | LLLLL | +1.91 | +0.93 | 0% | 8.0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 31 vs Arkansas Comets FC · Sat Nov 7 at FC Wichita Red · Sun Nov 8 vs Oklahoma Cosmos See all 11 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.
How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (2.85 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.