Kansas City Surf BLUE
ECNL Regional League Girls · Frontier GU17 · 8 teams · Kansas City Surf (all teams)
Next game — Sun Oct 25, 02:00 PM
Maize South High School, Soccer Field ↗ far trip
●●●●● Very tough to win
Most likely score 1–3 (expected goals 1.0 for, 3.5 against · 0.32 expected points)
| Season so far | Kansas City Surf BLUE | FC Wichita Red |
|---|---|---|
| Position | 4th | 3rd |
| Record (W-D-L) | 5-3-3 | 8-0-2 |
| Points per game | 1.64 | 2.40 |
| Goals for / game | 1.6 | 6.2 |
| Goals against / game | 1.6 | 1.0 |
| Clean sheets | 2 | 3 |
| Held scoreless | 3 | 1 |
| Form (recent first) | L L W W W | W W W W L |
| Biggest win | 4–1 vs FC Wichita Navy | 5–0 vs FC Tulsa Academy |
| Worst loss | 0–5 vs Arkansas Rising | 1–4 at Arkansas Rising |
| Model rating (net goals vs avg) | -0.10 | +2.77 |
| Schedule faced (avg opp. rating) | +1.64 | +1.73 |
Already played this season: Sun Sep 20 0–3 vs FC Wichita Red (L)
Common opponents: Arkansas Comets FC — we 1–1, 2–0; they 3–0, 3–1. Arkansas Rising — we 0–3, 0–5; they 0–2, 1–4.
Game plan
-
Respect their attack
FC Wichita Red score 6.2/game — well above the league's 2.8.Deny the easy goals first: compact shape between the lines, no fouls in shooting range, and a plan for their best outlet. Score first and make them chase.
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Hard to break down
FC Wichita Red concede only 1.0/game with 3 clean sheet(s).Patience and width: move the ball quickly side to side to pull the block apart, and treat set pieces as your best chance — rehearse two corner routines and a near-post free-kick delivery.
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Finishing wins the tight ones
Held scoreless 3 time(s): 0–3 vs FC Wichita Red, 0–3 vs Arkansas Rising, 0–5 vs Arkansas Rising.Against a low block, the first goal usually comes from a cross or a cut-back, not a dribble. Get 2–3 bodies in the box on every wide entry and finish practice this week at game speed.
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Underdog — play free, stay organised
Model gives 7%; a draw (10%) would be a good result.Keep the shape compact, make them play in front of you, and hit space behind their full-backs on transitions. A point here is a win for the table; a win is a season-changer.
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They arrive in form
FC Wichita Red have won 4 straight.Don't let them settle: deny the first 10 minutes of rhythm with pressure on their first pass out of the back.
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Away game
Kickoff 02:00 PM at Maize South High School.Arrive 75 minutes early to see the surface and goal size; plan a longer dynamic warm-up after a drive. Away wins are worth the same 3 points — keep the routine identical to home.
If Sunday goes…
Where we'd sit after the FC Wichita Red game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (Kansas City Surf BLUE – FC Wichita Red) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 0 other games that week (Mon Oct 19 – Sun Oct 25); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.
| Our result | Rivals don't play | Likely results | Every rival wins |
|---|---|---|---|
| – Loss · 1.50 PPG |
4th— holds | 4th— holds | 4th— holds |
| Win 1.75 PPG |
4th— holds | 4th— holds | 4th— holds |
| Draw 1.58 PPG |
4th— holds | 4th— holds | 4th— holds |
| Loss 1.50 PPG |
4th— holds | 4th— holds | 4th— holds |
Can we move up this round? No. With a 1–3 loss we stay 4th even if every rival loses, whatever the rivals do.
Where we finish
2,000 simulated seasons
- 1st
- 2nd
- 3rd <1%
- 4th 59%
- 5th 33%
- 6th 8%
- 7th <1%
- 8th
Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.
Climbing the table
What it takes to pass each team above us, from our 8 remaining known games (max 2.21 PPG if we win out).
| # | Team | PPG | Proj. | To pass them |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Arkansas Rising | 2.73 (+1.09) | 1st (2.73) | 34 of 24 pts to pass their current pace, 34 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule |
| 2 | FC Tulsa Academy | 2.70 (+1.06) | 3rd (2.40) | 34 of 24 pts to pass their current pace, 28 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule |
| 3 | FC Wichita Red | 2.40 (+0.76) | 2nd (2.47) | 28 of 24 pts to pass their current pace, 30 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule |
How the results connect
33 chains · 5 teams
Paths of results that link Kansas City Surf BLUE to FC Wichita Red through teams both have faced, drawn as one map. Teams sit in columns by how many games away from us they are. Each arrow is one game, pointing away from us, and its colour is the result for the team it starts from. Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain and see its net goal margin.
Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain, or step through them with the arrows. Open full screen and turn your phone to see the whole map.
Step through the chains with the arrows, or tap one on the map.
Position over the season
16 game days
The table re-sorted after each date on which a game was played. Shaded band is the top 4.
The path
run-in difficulty -0.56 · 6th hardest of 8
| Date | Opponent | Where | Difficulty | Win | Likely | Exp. pts | Run. PPG | Priority |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sun Oct 25 02:00 PM |
FC Wichita Red 3rd · 8-0-2 · GD +52 |
Away far trip
Maize South High School |
●●●●● Very tough | 7% |
1–3 | 0.32 | 1.53 | Upside |
| Wed Nov 4 05:30 PM |
Kansas City Surf |
Home Scheels Overland Park Soccer Complex |
●●●○○ Toss-up | 43% |
2–2 | 1.50 | 1.52 | Swing game |
| Sat Nov 7 02:00 PM |
Oklahoma Cosmos 5th · 3-0-4 · GD +8 |
Home Paragon Star Sports Complex |
●●●●○ Tough | 34% |
1–1 | 1.26 | 1.50 | Upside |
| Sun Nov 8 11:00 AM |
OK Energy FC Frontier 8th · 0-0-8 · GD -80 |
Home Paragon Star Sports Complex |
●○○○○ Favorable | 97% |
6–1 | 2.93 | 1.60 | Bank it |
| Sat Dec 5 03:00 PM |
Oklahoma Cosmos 5th · 3-0-4 · GD +8 |
Away far trip
South Lakes Soccer Complex |
●●●●○ Tough | 26% |
1–2 | 0.99 | 1.56 | Upside |
| Sun Dec 6 11:00 AM |
OK Energy FC Frontier 8th · 0-0-8 · GD -80 |
Away far trip
Edmond Soccer Club |
●○○○○ Favorable | 94% |
5–1 | 2.86 | 1.64 | Bank it |
| Sat Feb 6 01:00 PM |
FC Tulsa Academy 2nd · 9-0-1 · GD +44 |
Away far trip
Scheels Sports Complex |
●●●●● Very tough | 8% |
1–3 | 0.36 | 1.57 | Upside |
| Sun Feb 7 09:00 AM |
FC Tulsa Academy 2nd · 9-0-1 · GD +44 |
Away far trip
Scheels Sports Complex |
●●●●● Very tough | 8% |
1–3 | 0.36 | 1.50 | Upside |
"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.
Standings
| # | Team | GP | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | PPG | Form | SoS | Run-in | Top 4 | Exp. finish | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| 1 | Arkansas Rising | 11 | 10 | 0 | 1 | 64 | 5 | +59 | 30 | 2.73 | WWWWW | +0.10 | -0.46 | 100% | 1.2 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Nov 7 vs Kansas Rush Blue · Sun Nov 8 vs Toca Fusion Premier · Sat Nov 14 at Arkansas Comets FC See all 7 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 2 | FC Tulsa Academy | 10 | 9 | 0 | 1 | 58 | 14 | +44 | 27 | 2.70 | WWLWW | -0.87 | +0.88 | 100% | 2.6 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Nov 1 at FC Wichita Red · Sat Nov 21 at Arkansas Comets FC · Sun Nov 22 at Arkansas Rising See all 8 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 3 | FC Wichita Red | 10 | 8 | 0 | 2 | 62 | 10 | +52 | 24 | 2.40 | LWWWW | +1.73 | -0.92 | 100% | 2.3 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Sep 26 vs West Side Alliance OKC · Sun Oct 25 vs Kansas City Surf BLUE · Sun Nov 1 vs FC Tulsa Academy See all 11 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 4 | Kansas City Surf BLUE | 11 | 5 | 3 | 3 | 18 | 18 | +0 | 18 | 1.64 | WWWLL | +1.64 | -0.56 | 59% | 4.5 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Oct 25 at FC Wichita Red · Wed Nov 4 vs Kansas City Surf · Sat Nov 7 vs Oklahoma Cosmos See all 8 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 5 | Oklahoma Cosmos | 7 | 3 | 0 | 4 | 20 | 12 | +8 | 9 | 1.29 | LWLLL | +0.05 | +0.47 | 21% | 5.6 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Nov 1 vs Arkansas Comets FC · Sat Nov 7 at Kansas City Surf BLUE · Sun Nov 8 at FC Wichita Red See all 12 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 6 | Sporting Springfield | 10 | 4 | 0 | 6 | 29 | 24 | +5 | 12 | 1.20 | LLLWW | +0.25 | +0.40 | 1% | 6.5 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Nov 21 at Arkansas Rising · Sun Nov 22 at Arkansas Comets FC · Sat Dec 12 vs West Side Alliance Tulsa See all 8 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 7 | Arkansas Comets FC | 9 | 3 | 1 | 5 | 30 | 17 | +13 | 10 | 1.11 | LLLWL | +1.75 | -0.71 | 19% | 5.4 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 31 at OK Energy FC Frontier · Sun Nov 1 at Oklahoma Cosmos · Sat Nov 7 vs Toca Fusion Premier See all 9 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 8 | OK Energy FC Frontier | 8 | 0 | 0 | 8 | 4 | 84 | -80 | 0 | 0.00 | LLLLL | +1.91 | +0.93 | 0% | 8.0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 31 vs Arkansas Comets FC · Sat Nov 7 at FC Wichita Red · Sun Nov 8 vs Oklahoma Cosmos See all 11 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.
How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (2.85 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.