Kansas City Surf BLUE
ECNL Regional League Girls · Frontier GU15 · 8 teams · Kansas City Surf (all teams)
Next game — Sun Oct 25, 10:00 AM
Maize High School , Stadium ↗ · turf? far trip
●●●●● Very tough to win
Most likely score 1–2 (expected goals 1.3 for, 2.4 against · 0.73 expected points)
| Season so far | Kansas City Surf BLUE | FC Wichita Red |
|---|---|---|
| Position | 6th | 4th |
| Record (W-D-L) | 4-2-5 | 6-2-3 |
| Points per game | 1.27 | 1.82 |
| Goals for / game | 2.0 | 3.1 |
| Goals against / game | 1.7 | 1.4 |
| Clean sheets | 2 | 1 |
| Held scoreless | 3 | 1 |
| Form (recent first) | L L W L W | D L W W D |
| Biggest win | 5–0 vs FC Wichita Navy | 3–0 at Kansas City Surf BLUE |
| Worst loss | 0–3 vs FC Wichita Red | 0–2 vs FC Tulsa Academy |
| Model rating (net goals vs avg) | -0.25 | +0.71 |
| Schedule faced (avg opp. rating) | +0.54 | +0.80 |
Already played this season: Sun Sep 20 0–3 vs FC Wichita Red (L)
Common opponents: Arkansas Comets FC — we 1–1, 1–3; they 2–2, 3–2. Arkansas Rising — we 2–3, 0–2; they 1–2, 2–3.
Game plan
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Respect their attack
FC Wichita Red score 3.1/game — well above the league's 1.8.Deny the easy goals first: compact shape between the lines, no fouls in shooting range, and a plan for their best outlet. Score first and make them chase.
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Finishing wins the tight ones
Held scoreless 3 time(s): 0–3 vs FC Wichita Red, 0–2 vs Sporting Springfield, 0–2 vs Arkansas Rising.Against a low block, the first goal usually comes from a cross or a cut-back, not a dribble. Get 2–3 bodies in the box on every wide entry and finish practice this week at game speed.
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Underdog — play free, stay organised
Model gives 18%; a draw (18%) would be a good result.Keep the shape compact, make them play in front of you, and hit space behind their full-backs on transitions. A point here is a win for the table; a win is a season-changer.
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Away game
Kickoff 10:00 AM at Maize High School .Arrive 75 minutes early to see the surface and goal size; plan a longer dynamic warm-up after a drive. Away wins are worth the same 3 points — keep the routine identical to home.
If Sunday goes…
Where we'd sit after the FC Wichita Red game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (Kansas City Surf BLUE – FC Wichita Red) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 0 other games that week (Mon Oct 19 – Sun Oct 25); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.
| Our result | Rivals don't play | Likely results | Every rival wins |
|---|---|---|---|
| – Loss · 1.17 PPG |
6th— holds | 6th— holds | 6th— holds |
| Win 1.42 PPG |
6th— holds | 6th— holds | 6th— holds |
| Draw 1.25 PPG |
6th— holds | 6th— holds | 6th— holds |
| Loss 1.17 PPG |
6th— holds | 6th— holds | 6th— holds |
Can we move up this round? No. With a 1–2 loss we stay 6th even if every rival loses, whatever the rivals do.
Where we finish
2,000 simulated seasons
- 1st
- 2nd
- 3rd <1%
- 4th <1%
- 5th 12%
- 6th 48%
- 7th 30%
- 8th 10%
Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.
Climbing the table
What it takes to pass each team above us, from our 8 remaining known games (max 2.00 PPG if we win out).
| # | Team | PPG | Proj. | To pass them |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Arkansas Rising | 2.45 (+1.18) | 1st (2.37) | 33 of 24 pts to pass their current pace, 31 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule |
| 2 | OK Energy FC Frontier | 2.38 (+1.11) | 2nd (2.11) | 32 of 24 pts to pass their current pace, 27 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule |
| 3 | FC Tulsa Academy | 2.10 (+0.83) | 3rd (2.07) | 26 of 24 pts to pass their current pace, 26 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule |
| 4 | FC Wichita Red | 1.82 (+0.55) | 4th (1.83) | 21 of 24 pts to pass their current pace, 21 for their projection |
| 5 | Arkansas Comets FC | 1.44 (+0.17) | 5th (1.44) | 14 of 24 pts to pass their current pace, 14 for their projection |
How the results connect
41 chains · 6 teams
Paths of results that link Kansas City Surf BLUE to FC Wichita Red through teams both have faced, drawn as one map. Teams sit in columns by how many games away from us they are. Each arrow is one game, pointing away from us, and its colour is the result for the team it starts from. Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain and see its net goal margin.
Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain, or step through them with the arrows. Open full screen and turn your phone to see the whole map.
Step through the chains with the arrows, or tap one on the map.
Position over the season
16 game days
The table re-sorted after each date on which a game was played. Shaded band is the top 4.
The path
run-in difficulty +0.46 · 2nd hardest of 8
| Date | Opponent | Where | Difficulty | Win | Likely | Exp. pts | Run. PPG | Priority |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sun Oct 25 10:00 AM |
FC Wichita Red 4th · 6-2-3 · GD +19 |
Away far trip
Maize High School · turf? |
●●●●● Very tough | 18% |
1–2 | 0.73 | 1.23 | Upside |
| Tue Nov 3 07:30 PM |
Kansas City Surf |
Home Scheels Overland Park Soccer Complex |
●●●●○ Tough | 38% |
1–1 | 1.37 | 1.24 | Upside |
| Sat Nov 7 04:00 PM |
Oklahoma Cosmos 7th · 2-1-3 · GD -1 |
Home Paragon Star Sports Complex |
●●●○○ Toss-up | 48% |
1–1 | 1.65 | 1.27 | Swing game |
| Sun Nov 8 11:00 AM |
OK Energy FC Frontier 2nd · 6-1-1 · GD +15 |
Home Paragon Star Sports Complex |
●●●●● Very tough | 20% |
1–2 | 0.82 | 1.24 | Upside |
| Sat Dec 5 11:00 AM |
Oklahoma Cosmos 7th · 2-1-3 · GD -1 |
Away far trip
South Lakes Soccer Complex |
●●●●○ Tough | 38% |
1–1 | 1.38 | 1.25 | Upside |
| Sun Dec 6 11:00 AM |
OK Energy FC Frontier 2nd · 6-1-1 · GD +15 |
Away far trip
Edmond Soccer Club |
●●●●● Very tough | 15% |
1–2 | 0.62 | 1.21 | Upside |
| Sat Feb 6 11:00 AM |
FC Tulsa Academy 3rd · 6-3-1 · GD +16 |
Away far trip
Scheels Sports Complex |
●●●●● Very tough | 14% |
0–2 | 0.58 | 1.17 | Upside |
| Sun Feb 7 09:00 AM |
FC Tulsa Academy 3rd · 6-3-1 · GD +16 |
Away far trip
Scheels Sports Complex |
●●●●● Very tough | 14% |
0–2 | 0.58 | 1.14 | Upside |
"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.
Standings
| # | Team | GP | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | PPG | Form | SoS | Run-in | Top 4 | Exp. finish | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| 1 | Arkansas Rising | 11 | 9 | 0 | 2 | 43 | 12 | +31 | 27 | 2.45 | WWLWW | +0.21 | +0.18 | 100% | 1.3 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Nov 7 vs Kansas Rush Blue · Sun Nov 8 vs Toca Fusion Premier · Sat Nov 14 at Arkansas Comets FC See all 7 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 2 | OK Energy FC Frontier | 8 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 21 | 6 | +15 | 19 | 2.38 | WDWWL | +0.53 | +0.20 | 98% | 2.5 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 31 vs Arkansas Comets FC · Sat Nov 7 at FC Wichita Red · Sun Nov 8 vs Oklahoma Cosmos See all 11 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 3 | FC Tulsa Academy | 10 | 6 | 3 | 1 | 25 | 9 | +16 | 21 | 2.10 | WWWDW | +0.52 | +0.07 | 99% | 2.7 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 10 vs Oklahoma Cosmos · Sat Nov 21 at Arkansas Comets FC · Sun Nov 22 at Arkansas Rising See all 8 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 4 | FC Wichita Red | 11 | 6 | 2 | 3 | 34 | 15 | +19 | 20 | 1.82 | DWWLD | +0.80 | -0.04 | 92% | 3.7 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Sep 26 vs West Side Alliance OKC · Sun Oct 25 vs Kansas City Surf BLUE · Sat Nov 7 vs OK Energy FC Frontier See all 10 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 5 | Arkansas Comets FC | 9 | 3 | 4 | 2 | 40 | 21 | +19 | 13 | 1.44 | DLDDL | +0.47 | +0.34 | 11% | 5.2 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 31 at OK Energy FC Frontier · Sun Nov 1 at Oklahoma Cosmos · Sat Nov 7 vs Toca Fusion Premier See all 9 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 6 | Kansas City Surf BLUE | 11 | 4 | 2 | 5 | 22 | 19 | +3 | 14 | 1.27 | WLWLL | +0.54 | +0.46 | 1% | 6.4 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Oct 25 at FC Wichita Red · Tue Nov 3 vs Kansas City Surf · Sat Nov 7 vs Oklahoma Cosmos See all 8 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 7 | Oklahoma Cosmos | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 11 | 12 | -1 | 7 | 1.17 | WLLD | +0.64 | +0.43 | 1% | 7.0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 10 at FC Tulsa Academy · Sun Nov 1 vs Arkansas Comets FC · Sat Nov 7 at Kansas City Surf BLUE See all 13 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 8 | Sporting Springfield | 10 | 3 | 2 | 5 | 13 | 20 | -7 | 11 | 1.10 | LWLLD | +0.47 | +0.48 | 0% | 7.3 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Nov 21 at Arkansas Rising · Sun Nov 22 at Arkansas Comets FC · Sat Dec 12 vs West Side Alliance Tulsa See all 8 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.
How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (1.78 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.