Arkansas Comets FC

ECNL Regional League Girls · Frontier GU15 · 8 teams · Arkansas Comets FC (all teams)

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5th

3-4-2 record · 9 played

1.44 points per game

+19 goal diff · 40–21

DLDDLlast 5

9% chance of top 4 · expected finish 5.2

+0.47 schedule faced · avg opponent rating

Next game — Sat Oct 31, 03:00 PM

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Arkansas Comets FC
5th · 1.44 PPG

OK Energy FC Frontier
2nd · 2.38 PPG

Edmond Soccer Club, ESC 12 ↗ far trip

20% 16% 64%

windrawloss

●●●●● Very tough to win

Most likely score 1–3 (expected goals 1.7 for, 3.0 against · 0.75 expected points)

Season so far	Arkansas Comets FC	OK Energy FC Frontier
Position	5th	2nd
Record (W-D-L)	3-4-2	6-1-1
Points per game	1.44	2.38
Goals for / game	4.4	2.6
Goals against / game	2.3	0.8
Clean sheets	1	4
Held scoreless	1	2
Form (recent first)	L D D L D	L W W D W
Biggest win	14–1 vs West Side Alliance Tulsa	4–0 vs West Side Alliance OKC
Worst loss	0–8 at Arkansas Rising	0–4 at FC Tulsa Academy
Model rating (net goals vs avg)	+0.32	+0.93
Schedule faced (avg opp. rating)	+0.47	+0.53

Common opponents: FC Tulsa Academy — we 2–2; they 0–0, 0–4. Sporting Springfield — we 3–3; they 4–2. Arkansas Rising — we 0–8; they 2–0.

Game plan

Respect their attack
OK Energy FC Frontier score 2.6/game — well above the league's 1.8.
Deny the easy goals first: compact shape between the lines, no fouls in shooting range, and a plan for their best outlet. Score first and make them chase.
Hard to break down
OK Energy FC Frontier concede only 0.8/game with 4 clean sheet(s).
Patience and width: move the ball quickly side to side to pull the block apart, and treat set pieces as your best chance — rehearse two corner routines and a near-post free-kick delivery.
Finishing wins the tight ones
Held scoreless 1 time(s): 0–8 at Arkansas Rising.
Against a low block, the first goal usually comes from a cross or a cut-back, not a dribble. Get 2–3 bodies in the box on every wide entry and finish practice this week at game speed.
Underdog — play free, stay organised
Model gives 20%; a draw (16%) would be a good result.
Keep the shape compact, make them play in front of you, and hit space behind their full-backs on transitions. A point here is a win for the table; a win is a season-changer.
Away game
Kickoff 03:00 PM at Edmond Soccer Club.
Arrive 75 minutes early to see the surface and goal size; plan a longer dynamic warm-up after a drive. Away wins are worth the same 3 points — keep the routine identical to home.

If Saturday goes…

Where we'd sit after the OK Energy FC Frontier game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (Arkansas Comets FC – OK Energy FC Frontier) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 0 other games that week (Mon Oct 26 – Sun Nov 1); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.

Our result	Rivals don't play	Likely results	Every rival wins
– Loss · 1.30 PPG	5th— holds	5th— holds	5th— holds
Win 1.60 PPG	5th— holds	5th— holds	5th— holds
Draw 1.40 PPG	5th— holds	5th— holds	5th— holds
Loss 1.30 PPG	5th— holds	5th— holds	5th— holds

Can we move up this round? No. With a 1–3 loss we stay 5th even if every rival loses, whatever the rivals do.

Where we finish

2,000 simulated seasons

0% finish 1st

9% top 4

91% below the top 4

5.2 average finish

1st <1%
2nd <1%
3rd 2%
4th 7%
5th 68%
6th 17%
7th 4%
8th 1%

Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.

Climbing the table

What it takes to pass each team above us, from our 9 remaining known games (max 2.22 PPG if we win out).

#	Team	PPG	Proj.	To pass them
1	Arkansas Rising	2.45 (+1.01)	1st (2.37)	32 of 27 pts to pass their current pace, 30 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule
2	OK Energy FC Frontier	2.38 (+0.94)	2nd (2.11)	30 of 27 pts to pass their current pace, 25 for their projection
3	FC Tulsa Academy	2.10 (+0.66)	3rd (2.07)	25 of 27 pts to pass their current pace, 25 for their projection
4	FC Wichita Red	1.82 (+0.38)	4th (1.83)	20 of 27 pts to pass their current pace, 21 for their projection

How the results connect

37 chains · 6 teams

Paths of results that link Arkansas Comets FC to OK Energy FC Frontier through teams both have faced, drawn as one map. Teams sit in columns by how many games away from us they are. Each arrow is one game, pointing away from us, and its colour is the result for the team it starts from. Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain and see its net goal margin.

10 favour us

2 even

25 favour them

-1.8 goals per chain on average. The results point their way.

won lost drew· result for the team the arrow starts from

Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain, or step through them with the arrows. Open full screen and turn your phone to see the whole map.

12 chains

Position over the season

16 game days

The table re-sorted after each date on which a game was played. Shaded band is the top 4.

The path

run-in difficulty +0.34 · 4th hardest of 8

Date	Opponent	Where	Difficulty	Win	Likely	Exp. pts	Run. PPG	Priority
Sat Oct 31 03:00 PM	OK Energy FC Frontier 2nd · 6-1-1 · GD +15	Away far trip Edmond Soccer Club	●●●●● Very tough	20%	1–3	0.75	1.37	Upside
Sun Nov 1 11:00 AM	Oklahoma Cosmos 7th · 2-1-3 · GD -1	Away far trip South Lakes Soccer Complex	●●●○○ Toss-up	53%	2–2	1.76	1.41	Swing game
Sat Nov 7 11:00 AM	Toca Fusion Premier	Home Lewis Soccer Complex	●●●○○ Toss-up	52%	2–2	1.75	1.44	Swing game
Sun Nov 8 11:00 AM	Kansas Rush Blue	Home Lewis Soccer Complex	●●●○○ Toss-up	52%	2–2	1.75	1.46	Swing game
Sat Nov 14 11:00 AM	Arkansas Rising 1st · 9-0-2 · GD +31	Home Brunner & Lay Soccer Complex	●●●●● Very tough	20%	2–3	0.73	1.41	Upside
Sat Nov 21 11:00 AM	FC Tulsa Academy 3rd · 6-3-1 · GD +16	Home Brunner & Lay Soccer Complex	●●●●○ Tough	26%	1–2	0.97	1.38	Upside
Sun Nov 22 11:00 AM	Sporting Springfield 8th · 3-2-5 · GD -7	Home Brunner & Lay Soccer Complex	●●○○○ Lean win	66%	3–1	2.12	1.43	Swing game
Sat Jan 16 11:00 AM	OK Energy FC Frontier 2nd · 6-1-1 · GD +15	Home Brunner & Lay Soccer Complex	●●●●○ Tough	28%	1–2	1.02	1.40	Upside
Sun Jan 17 03:00 PM	Oklahoma Cosmos 7th · 2-1-3 · GD -1	Home Brunner & Lay Soccer Complex	●●○○○ Lean win	64%	3–1	2.07	1.44	Swing game

"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.

Standings

Team

Pts

PPG

Form

SoS

Run-in

Top 4

Exp. finish

Arkansas Rising

+31

2.45

WWLWW

+0.21

+0.18

100%

1.3

W	Sun Oct 11	at	Kansas City Surf BLUE (6th)	2–0
W	Sat Oct 10	at	Kansas City Surf BLUE (6th)	3–2
L	Sun Sep 27	at	OK Energy FC Frontier (2nd)	0–2
W	Sat Sep 26	at	Oklahoma Cosmos (7th)	3–0
W	Sun Sep 20	vs	Arkansas Comets FC (5th)	8–0
W	Sun Sep 13	at	FC Tulsa Academy (3rd)	6–4
L	Sat Sep 12	at	Sporting Springfield (8th)	0–1
W	Sun Aug 30	vs	West Side Alliance Tulsa (—)	7–0
W	Sat Aug 29	vs	Broken Arrow Soccer Club (—)	9–0
W	Sun Aug 23	vs	FC Wichita Red (4th)	3–2
W	Sat Aug 22	vs	FC Wichita Red (4th)	2–1

Next: Sat Nov 7 vs Kansas Rush Blue · Sun Nov 8 vs Toca Fusion Premier · Sat Nov 14 at Arkansas Comets FC See all 7 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Nov 7	vs	Kansas Rush Blue (—)	3–1	75%
·	Sun Nov 8	vs	Toca Fusion Premier (—)	3–1	75%
·	Sat Nov 14	at	Arkansas Comets FC (5th)	3–2	67%
·	Sat Nov 21	vs	Sporting Springfield (8th)	3–1	84%
·	Sun Nov 22	vs	FC Tulsa Academy (3rd)	2–1	50%
·	Sat Jan 16	vs	Oklahoma Cosmos (7th)	3–1	83%
·	Sun Jan 17	vs	OK Energy FC Frontier (2nd)	2–1	52%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

OK Energy FC Frontier

+15

2.38

WDWWL

+0.53

+0.20

98%

2.4

L	Sun Oct 11	at	FC Tulsa Academy (3rd)	0–4
W	Sat Oct 10	at	Sporting Springfield (8th)	4–2
W	Sun Sep 27	vs	Arkansas Rising (1st)	2–0
D	Sat Sep 19	vs	FC Tulsa Academy (3rd)	0–0
W	Sun Sep 13	at	Oklahoma Cosmos (7th)	3–0
W	Sat Aug 29	vs	West Side Alliance OKC (—)	4–0

Next: Sat Oct 31 vs Arkansas Comets FC · Sat Nov 7 at FC Wichita Red · Sun Nov 8 vs Oklahoma Cosmos See all 11 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 31	vs	Arkansas Comets FC (5th)	3–1	64%
·	Sat Nov 7	at	FC Wichita Red (4th)	1–1	41%
·	Sun Nov 8	vs	Oklahoma Cosmos (7th)	2–0	72%
·	Sun Nov 8	at	Kansas City Surf BLUE (6th)	2–1	59%
·	Sat Nov 14	vs	FC Wichita Navy (—)	2–1	63%
·	Sun Nov 15	vs	Kansas City Surf (—)	2–1	63%
·	Sat Dec 5	vs	FC Wichita Red (4th)	1–1	50%
·	Sun Dec 6	vs	Kansas City Surf BLUE (6th)	2–1	67%
·	Sat Jan 16	at	Arkansas Comets FC (5th)	2–1	54%
·	Sun Jan 17	at	Arkansas Rising (1st)	1–2	27%
·	Sun Jan 24	vs	Sporting Springfield (8th)	2–0	73%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

FC Tulsa Academy

+16

2.10

WWWDW

+0.52

+0.07

99%

2.7

W	Sun Oct 11	vs	OK Energy FC Frontier (2nd)	4–0
D	Sun Oct 4	at	FC Wichita Red (4th)	1–1
W	Sat Oct 3	at	FC Wichita Red (4th)	2–0
W	Sun Sep 27	vs	Sporting Springfield (8th)	1–0
W	Sun Sep 20	at	Sporting Springfield (8th)	3–0
D	Sat Sep 19	at	OK Energy FC Frontier (2nd)	0–0
L	Sun Sep 13	vs	Arkansas Rising (1st)	4–6
D	Sat Sep 12	vs	Arkansas Comets FC (5th)	2–2
W	Sun Aug 30	vs	Toca Fusion Premier (—)	5–0
W	Sat Aug 29	vs	Kansas Rush Blue (—)	3–0

Next: Sat Oct 10 vs Oklahoma Cosmos · Sat Nov 21 at Arkansas Comets FC · Sun Nov 22 at Arkansas Rising See all 8 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 10 (no score yet)	vs	Oklahoma Cosmos (7th)	2–0	73%
·	Sat Nov 21	at	Arkansas Comets FC (5th)	2–1	56%
·	Sun Nov 22	at	Arkansas Rising (1st)	1–2	29%
·	Sun Jan 10	vs	Broken Arrow Soccer Club (—)	2–1	65%
·	Sun Jan 24	at	Oklahoma Cosmos (7th)	2–1	65%
·	Sat Feb 6	vs	Kansas City Surf BLUE (6th)	2–0	69%
·	Sun Feb 7	vs	Kansas City Surf BLUE (6th)	2–0	69%
·	Sun Mar 7	vs	West Side Alliance Tulsa (—)	2–1	65%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

FC Wichita Red

+19

1.82

DWWLD

+0.80

-0.04

93%

3.7

D	Sun Oct 4	vs	FC Tulsa Academy (3rd)	1–1
L	Sat Oct 3	vs	FC Tulsa Academy (3rd)	0–2
W	Sun Sep 20	at	Kansas City Surf BLUE (6th)	3–0
W	Sun Sep 6	vs	Arkansas Comets FC (5th)	3–2
D	Sat Sep 5	at	Arkansas Comets FC (5th)	2–2
L	Sun Aug 23	at	Arkansas Rising (1st)	2–3
L	Sat Aug 22	at	Arkansas Rising (1st)	1–2

Next: Sat Sep 26 vs West Side Alliance OKC · Sun Oct 25 vs Kansas City Surf BLUE · Sat Nov 7 vs OK Energy FC Frontier See all 10 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Sep 26 (no score yet)	vs	West Side Alliance OKC (—)	2–1	59%
·	Sun Oct 25	vs	Kansas City Surf BLUE (6th)	2–1	63%
·	Sat Nov 7	vs	OK Energy FC Frontier (2nd)	1–1	37%
·	Sun Nov 8	vs	Oklahoma Cosmos (7th)	2–1	68%
·	Sat Dec 5	at	OK Energy FC Frontier (2nd)	1–1	28%
·	Sun Dec 6	at	Oklahoma Cosmos (7th)	2–1	59%
·	Sun Dec 13	vs	Kansas City Surf (—)	2–1	59%
·	Sat Dec 19	vs	FC Wichita Navy (—)	2–1	59%
·	Sat Feb 6	at	Sporting Springfield (8th)	2–1	60%
·	Sun Feb 7	at	Sporting Springfield (8th)	2–1	60%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Arkansas Comets FC

+19

1.44

DLDDL

+0.47

+0.34

5.2

L	Sun Sep 20	at	Arkansas Rising (1st)	0–8
D	Sun Sep 13	at	Sporting Springfield (8th)	3–3
D	Sat Sep 12	at	FC Tulsa Academy (3rd)	2–2
L	Sun Sep 6	at	FC Wichita Red (4th)	2–3
D	Sat Sep 5	vs	FC Wichita Red (4th)	2–2
W	Sun Aug 30	vs	Broken Arrow Soccer Club (—)	13–0
W	Sat Aug 29	vs	West Side Alliance Tulsa (—)	14–1
W	Sun Aug 16	vs	Kansas City Surf BLUE (6th)	3–1
D	Sat Aug 15	vs	Kansas City Surf BLUE (6th)	1–1

Next: Sat Oct 31 at OK Energy FC Frontier · Sun Nov 1 at Oklahoma Cosmos · Sat Nov 7 vs Toca Fusion Premier See all 9 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 31	at	OK Energy FC Frontier (2nd)	1–3	20%
·	Sun Nov 1	at	Oklahoma Cosmos (7th)	2–2	53%
·	Sat Nov 7	vs	Toca Fusion Premier (—)	2–2	52%
·	Sun Nov 8	vs	Kansas Rush Blue (—)	2–2	52%
·	Sat Nov 14	vs	Arkansas Rising (1st)	2–3	20%
·	Sat Nov 21	vs	FC Tulsa Academy (3rd)	1–2	26%
·	Sun Nov 22	vs	Sporting Springfield (8th)	3–1	66%
·	Sat Jan 16	vs	OK Energy FC Frontier (2nd)	1–2	28%
·	Sun Jan 17	vs	Oklahoma Cosmos (7th)	3–1	64%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Kansas City Surf BLUE

1.27

WLWLL

+0.54

+0.46

6.4

L	Sun Oct 11	vs	Arkansas Rising (1st)	0–2
L	Sat Oct 10	vs	Arkansas Rising (1st)	2–3
W	Sun Oct 4	vs	Sporting Springfield (8th)	4–1
L	Sat Oct 3	vs	Sporting Springfield (8th)	0–2
W	Sun Sep 27	vs	West Side Alliance OKC (—)	4–0
L	Sun Sep 20	vs	FC Wichita Red (4th)	0–3
W	Sun Aug 30	vs	FC Wichita Navy (—)	5–0
L	Sun Aug 16	at	Arkansas Comets FC (5th)	1–3
D	Sat Aug 15	at	Arkansas Comets FC (5th)	1–1

Next: Sun Oct 25 at FC Wichita Red · Tue Nov 3 vs Kansas City Surf · Sat Nov 7 vs Oklahoma Cosmos See all 8 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sun Oct 25	at	FC Wichita Red (4th)	1–2	18%
·	Tue Nov 3	vs	Kansas City Surf (—)	1–1	38%
·	Sat Nov 7	vs	Oklahoma Cosmos (7th)	1–1	48%
·	Sun Nov 8	vs	OK Energy FC Frontier (2nd)	1–2	20%
·	Sat Dec 5	at	Oklahoma Cosmos (7th)	1–1	38%
·	Sun Dec 6	at	OK Energy FC Frontier (2nd)	1–2	15%
·	Sat Feb 6	at	FC Tulsa Academy (3rd)	0–2	14%
·	Sun Feb 7	at	FC Tulsa Academy (3rd)	0–2	14%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Oklahoma Cosmos

-1

1.17

WLLD

+0.64

+0.43

7.1

D	Sun Oct 11	at	Sporting Springfield (8th)	2–2
L	Sat Sep 26	vs	Arkansas Rising (1st)	0–3
L	Sun Sep 13	vs	OK Energy FC Frontier (2nd)	0–3
W	Sun Aug 30	vs	West Side Alliance OKC (—)	2–0

Next: Sat Oct 10 at FC Tulsa Academy · Sun Nov 1 vs Arkansas Comets FC · Sat Nov 7 at Kansas City Surf BLUE See all 13 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 10 (no score yet)	at	FC Tulsa Academy (3rd)	0–2	11%
·	Sun Nov 1	vs	Arkansas Comets FC (5th)	2–2	30%
·	Sat Nov 7	at	Kansas City Surf BLUE (6th)	1–1	30%
·	Sun Nov 8	at	FC Wichita Red (4th)	1–2	15%
·	Sun Nov 8	at	OK Energy FC Frontier (2nd)	0–2	12%
·	Sat Nov 14	vs	Kansas City Surf (—)	1–1	34%
·	Sun Nov 15	vs	FC Wichita Navy (—)	1–1	34%
·	Sat Dec 5	vs	Kansas City Surf BLUE (6th)	1–1	39%
·	Sun Dec 6	vs	FC Wichita Red (4th)	1–2	22%
·	Sat Jan 16	at	Arkansas Rising (1st)	1–3	7%
·	Sun Jan 17	at	Arkansas Comets FC (5th)	1–3	21%
·	Sat Jan 23	vs	Sporting Springfield (8th)	1–1	45%
·	Sun Jan 24	vs	FC Tulsa Academy (3rd)	1–2	16%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Sporting Springfield

-7

1.10

LWLLD

+0.47

+0.48

7.2

D	Sun Oct 11	vs	Oklahoma Cosmos (7th)	2–2
L	Sat Oct 10	vs	OK Energy FC Frontier (2nd)	2–4
L	Sun Oct 4	at	Kansas City Surf BLUE (6th)	1–4
W	Sat Oct 3	at	Kansas City Surf BLUE (6th)	2–0
L	Sun Sep 27	at	FC Tulsa Academy (3rd)	0–1
L	Sun Sep 20	vs	FC Tulsa Academy (3rd)	0–3
D	Sun Sep 13	vs	Arkansas Comets FC (5th)	3–3
W	Sat Sep 12	vs	Arkansas Rising (1st)	1–0
L	Sun Aug 30	vs	Kansas Rush Blue (—)	0–3
W	Sat Aug 29	vs	Toca Fusion Premier (—)	2–0

Next: Sat Nov 21 at Arkansas Rising · Sun Nov 22 at Arkansas Comets FC · Sat Dec 12 vs West Side Alliance Tulsa See all 8 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Nov 21	at	Arkansas Rising (1st)	1–3	7%
·	Sun Nov 22	at	Arkansas Comets FC (5th)	1–3	19%
·	Sat Dec 12	vs	West Side Alliance Tulsa (—)	1–1	32%
·	Sun Dec 13	vs	Broken Arrow Soccer Club (—)	1–1	32%
·	Sat Jan 23	at	Oklahoma Cosmos (7th)	1–1	32%
·	Sun Jan 24	at	OK Energy FC Frontier (2nd)	0–2	11%
·	Sat Feb 6	vs	FC Wichita Red (4th)	1–2	20%
·	Sun Feb 7	vs	FC Wichita Red (4th)	1–2	20%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.

How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (1.78 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.