OK Energy FC Frontier
ECNL Regional League Girls · Frontier GU14 · 7 teams · Oklahoma Energy FC (all teams)
Next game — Sat Oct 31, 11:00 AM
●●●○○ Toss-up to win
Most likely score 2–1 (expected goals 2.5 for, 1.9 against · 1.68 expected points)
| Season so far | OK Energy FC Frontier | Arkansas Comets FC |
|---|---|---|
| Position | 5th | 6th |
| Record (W-D-L) | 3-0-4 | 2-1-4 |
| Points per game | 1.29 | 1.00 |
| Goals for / game | 3.0 | 2.1 |
| Goals against / game | 2.1 | 2.1 |
| Clean sheets | 2 | 1 |
| Held scoreless | 2 | 1 |
| Form (recent first) | L L L W W | L L L W W |
| Biggest win | 9–0 vs West Side Alliance OKC | 8–0 vs West Side Alliance Tulsa |
| Worst loss | 0–5 at FC Tulsa Academy | 1–4 vs Kansas City Surf BLUE |
| Model rating (net goals vs avg) | -0.23 | -0.40 |
| Schedule faced (avg opp. rating) | +0.80 | +1.19 |
Common opponents: Sporting Springfield — we 0–4; they 1–3.
Game plan
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Finishing wins the tight ones
Held scoreless 2 time(s): 0–4 at Sporting Springfield, 0–5 at FC Tulsa Academy.Against a low block, the first goal usually comes from a cross or a cut-back, not a dribble. Get 2–3 bodies in the box on every wide entry and finish practice this week at game speed.
-
Swing game — small margins
Win 50% / draw 19% / loss 31%.Games like this are decided by one set piece or one transition. Prioritise the strongest XI for the full game, be disciplined with fouls near the box, and have a clear late-game plan for both "protect the lead" and "chase".
-
Confidence is low on their side
Arkansas Comets FC have lost 3 straight (form: WWLLL).Teams on losing runs go quiet after conceding. An early goal usually ends the contest — start fast.
If Saturday goes…
Where we'd sit after the Arkansas Comets FC game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (OK Energy FC Frontier – Arkansas Comets FC) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 1 other games that week (Mon Oct 26 – Sun Nov 1); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.
| Our result | Rivals don't play | Likely results | Every rival wins |
|---|---|---|---|
| – Win · 1.50 PPG |
5th— holds | 5th— holds | 5th— holds |
| Win 1.50 PPG |
5th— holds | 5th— holds | 5th— holds |
| Draw 1.25 PPG |
5th— holds | 5th— holds | 6th▼ down 1 |
| Loss 1.13 PPG |
6th▼ down 1 | 6th▼ down 1 | 7th▼ down 2 |
Can we move up this round? No. With a 2–1 win we stay 5th even if every rival loses, whatever the rivals do.
Where we finish
2,000 simulated seasons
- 1st
- 2nd
- 3rd <1%
- 4th 9%
- 5th 51%
- 6th 38%
- 7th 3%
Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.
Climbing the table
What it takes to pass each team above us, from our 10 remaining known games (max 2.29 PPG if we win out).
| # | Team | PPG | Proj. | To pass them |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | FC Tulsa Academy | 2.78 (+1.49) | 1st (2.59) | 39 of 30 pts to pass their current pace, 36 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule |
| 2 | Kansas City Surf BLUE | 2.44 (+1.15) | 3rd (2.25) | 33 of 30 pts to pass their current pace, 30 for their projection |
| 3 | FC Wichita Red | 2.44 (+1.15) | 2nd (2.27) | 33 of 30 pts to pass their current pace, 30 for their projection |
| 4 | Sporting Springfield | 1.67 (+0.38) | 4th (1.64) | 20 of 30 pts to pass their current pace, 19 for their projection |
How the results connect
18 chains · 6 teams
Paths of results that link OK Energy FC Frontier to Arkansas Comets FC through teams both have faced, drawn as one map. Teams sit in columns by how many games away from us they are. Each arrow is one game, pointing away from us, and its colour is the result for the team it starts from. Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain and see its net goal margin.
Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain, or step through them with the arrows. Open full screen and turn your phone to see the whole map.
Step through the chains with the arrows, or tap one on the map.
Position over the season
12 game days
The table re-sorted after each date on which a game was played. Shaded band is the top 4.
The path
run-in difficulty +0.41 · 2nd hardest of 7
| Date | Opponent | Where | Difficulty | Win | Likely | Exp. pts | Run. PPG | Priority |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat Oct 31 11:00 AM |
Arkansas Comets FC 6th · 2-1-4 · GD +0 |
Home Edmond Soccer Club |
●●●○○ Toss-up | 50% |
2–1 | 1.68 | 1.34 | Swing game |
| Sat Nov 7 11:00 AM |
FC Wichita Red 3rd · 7-1-1 · GD +22 |
Away far trip
Stryker Soccer Complex |
●●●●● Very tough | 12% |
1–3 | 0.50 | 1.24 | Upside |
| Sun Nov 8 01:00 PM |
Kansas City Surf BLUE 2nd · 7-1-1 · GD +30 |
Away far trip
Paragon Star Sports Complex |
●●●●● Very tough | 8% |
1–3 | 0.35 | 1.15 | Upside |
| Sun Nov 8 03:00 PM |
Oklahoma Cosmos 7th · 2-0-4 · GD -8 |
Home North Oklahoma City FC |
●●○○○ Lean win | 68% |
3–1 | 2.20 | 1.25 | Swing game |
| Sat Nov 14 11:00 AM |
FC Wichita Navy |
Home Edmond Soccer Club |
●●●●○ Tough | 41% |
2–2 | 1.43 | 1.26 | Upside |
| Sun Nov 15 11:00 AM |
Kansas City Surf |
Home Edmond Soccer Club |
●●●●○ Tough | 41% |
2–2 | 1.43 | 1.28 | Upside |
| Sat Dec 5 11:00 AM |
FC Wichita Red 3rd · 7-1-1 · GD +22 |
Home Edmond Soccer Club |
●●●●● Very tough | 18% |
1–2 | 0.72 | 1.24 | Upside |
| Sun Dec 6 09:00 AM |
Kansas City Surf BLUE 2nd · 7-1-1 · GD +30 |
Home Edmond Soccer Club |
●●●●● Very tough | 14% |
1–3 | 0.54 | 1.19 | Upside |
| Sat Jan 16 09:00 AM |
Arkansas Comets FC 6th · 2-1-4 · GD +0 |
Away far trip
Brunner & Lay Soccer Complex |
●●●●○ Tough | 39% |
2–2 | 1.37 | 1.20 | Upside |
| Sun Jan 24 01:00 PM |
Sporting Springfield 4th · 5-0-4 · GD +8 |
Home Edmond Soccer Club |
●●●●○ Tough | 34% |
2–2 | 1.19 | 1.20 | Upside |
"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.
Standings
| # | Team | GP | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | PPG | Form | SoS | Run-in | Top 4 | Exp. finish | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| 1 | FC Tulsa Academy | 9 | 8 | 1 | 0 | 34 | 6 | +28 | 25 | 2.78 | WWDWW | +0.20 | +0.19 | 100% | 1.2 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Nov 21 at Arkansas Comets FC · Sat Dec 12 vs Arkansas Comets FC · Sun Jan 10 vs Broken Arrow Soccer Club See all 7 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 2 | Kansas City Surf BLUE | 9 | 7 | 1 | 1 | 37 | 7 | +30 | 22 | 2.44 | WLWWW | +0.30 | +0.26 | 100% | 2.4 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Oct 25 at FC Wichita Red · Wed Nov 4 vs Kansas City Surf · Sat Nov 7 vs Oklahoma Cosmos See all 8 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 3 | FC Wichita Red | 9 | 7 | 1 | 1 | 30 | 8 | +22 | 22 | 2.44 | WWWLD | +1.02 | -0.05 | 100% | 2.4 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Sep 26 vs West Side Alliance OKC · Sun Oct 25 vs Kansas City Surf BLUE · Sat Nov 7 vs OK Energy FC Frontier See all 10 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 4 | Sporting Springfield | 9 | 5 | 0 | 4 | 25 | 17 | +8 | 15 | 1.67 | LLLWW | +0.74 | +0.06 | 87% | 4.1 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Nov 22 at Arkansas Comets FC · Sat Dec 12 vs West Side Alliance Tulsa · Sun Dec 13 vs Broken Arrow Soccer Club See all 7 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 5 | OK Energy FC Frontier | 7 | 3 | 0 | 4 | 21 | 15 | +6 | 9 | 1.29 | WWLLL | +0.80 | +0.41 | 9% | 5.3 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 31 vs Arkansas Comets FC · Sat Nov 7 at FC Wichita Red · Sun Nov 8 at Kansas City Surf BLUE See all 10 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 6 | Arkansas Comets FC | 7 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 15 | 15 | +0 | 7 | 1.00 | WWLLL | +1.19 | +0.14 | 5% | 5.7 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 31 at OK Energy FC Frontier · Sun Nov 1 at Oklahoma Cosmos · Sat Nov 7 vs Toca Fusion Premier See all 9 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 7 | Oklahoma Cosmos | 6 | 2 | 0 | 4 | 10 | 18 | -8 | 6 | 1.00 | WLLL | +0.75 | +0.64 | 0% | 6.8 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Nov 1 vs Arkansas Comets FC · Sat Nov 7 at Kansas City Surf BLUE · Sun Nov 8 at OK Energy FC Frontier See all 11 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.
How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (1.91 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.