Jacksonville FC
ECNL Regional League Girls · Florida GU17 · 9 teams · Jacksonville FC (all teams)
Next game — Sun Feb 28, 11:00 AM
Florida State University Rec Sportsplex, Field D ↗ far trip
●●●○○ Toss-up to win
Most likely score 2–1 (expected goals 2.2 for, 1.8 against · 1.63 expected points)
| Season so far | Jacksonville FC | Sporting SA TLH |
|---|---|---|
| Position | 4th | 5th |
| Record (W-D-L) | 4-0-4 | 1-1-1 |
| Points per game | 1.50 | 1.33 |
| Goals for / game | 1.8 | 2.3 |
| Goals against / game | 1.4 | 2.7 |
| Clean sheets | 4 | 0 |
| Held scoreless | 0 | 1 |
| Form (recent first) | L L W W W | W D L |
| Biggest win | 5–0 vs Seminole United | 5–2 vs St. Petersburg FC |
| Worst loss | 1–4 at Florida Premier FC | 0–4 at Florida Kraze Krush |
| Model rating (net goals vs avg) | +0.33 | -0.26 |
| Schedule faced (avg opp. rating) | +0.18 | -0.31 |
Common opponents: Florida Kraze Krush — we 1–2; they 0–4. Tampa Bay United — we 1–0; they 2–2. St. Petersburg FC — we 3–0; they 5–2.
Game plan
-
They leak goals — be greedy
Sporting SA TLH concede 2.7/game; worst result 0–4 at Florida Kraze Krush.Commit numbers forward, shoot early and often, and attack second balls. Goal difference is the tiebreaker on PPG, so keep playing to score for the full game — rotate players rather than pace.
-
Swing game — small margins
Win 47% / draw 20% / loss 32%.Games like this are decided by one set piece or one transition. Prioritise the strongest XI for the full game, be disciplined with fouls near the box, and have a clear late-game plan for both "protect the lead" and "chase".
-
Away game
Kickoff 11:00 AM at Florida State University Rec Sportsplex.Arrive 75 minutes early to see the surface and goal size; plan a longer dynamic warm-up after a drive. Away wins are worth the same 3 points — keep the routine identical to home.
If Sunday goes…
Where we'd sit after the Sporting SA TLH game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (Jacksonville FC – Sporting SA TLH) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 0 other games that week (Mon Feb 22 – Sun Feb 28); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.
| Our result | Rivals don't play | Likely results | Every rival wins |
|---|---|---|---|
| – Win · 1.67 PPG |
4th— holds | 4th— holds | 4th— holds |
| Win 1.67 PPG |
4th— holds | 4th— holds | 4th— holds |
| Draw 1.44 PPG |
4th— holds | 4th— holds | 4th— holds |
| Loss 1.33 PPG |
5th▼ down 1 | 5th▼ down 1 | 5th▼ down 1 |
Can we move up this round? No. With a 2–1 win we stay 4th even if every rival loses, whatever the rivals do.
Where we finish
2,000 simulated seasons
- 1st
- 2nd 1%
- 3rd 4%
- 4th 68%
- 5th 19%
- 6th 7%
- 7th 1%
- 8th <1%
- 9th
Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.
Climbing the table
What it takes to pass each team above us, from our 8 remaining known games (max 2.25 PPG if we win out).
| # | Team | PPG | Proj. | To pass them |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Florida Kraze Krush | 2.67 (+1.17) | 2nd (2.35) | 31 of 24 pts to pass their current pace, 26 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule |
| 2 | Florida Premier FC | 2.44 (+0.94) | 1st (2.38) | 28 of 24 pts to pass their current pace, 27 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule |
| 3 | Fishhawk Premier FC | 2.17 (+0.67) | 3rd (2.16) | 23 of 24 pts to pass their current pace, 23 for their projection |
How the results connect
19 chains · 8 teams
Paths of results that link Jacksonville FC to Sporting SA TLH through teams both have faced, drawn as one map. Teams sit in columns by how many games away from us they are. Each arrow is one game, pointing away from us, and its colour is the result for the team it starts from. Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain and see its net goal margin.
Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain, or step through them with the arrows. Open full screen and turn your phone to see the whole map.
Step through the chains with the arrows, or tap one on the map.
Position over the season
10 game days
The table re-sorted after each date on which a game was played. Shaded band is the top 4.
The path
run-in difficulty -0.27 · 5th hardest of 9
| Date | Opponent | Where | Difficulty | Win | Likely | Exp. pts | Run. PPG | Priority |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat Sep 12 02:30 PM no score posted |
Fishhawk Premier FC 3rd · 4-1-1 · GD +11 |
Home Patton Park |
●●●●○ Tough | 25% |
1–1 | 0.97 | 1.44 | Upside |
| Sun Feb 28 11:00 AM |
Sporting SA TLH 5th · 1-1-1 · GD -1 |
Away far trip
Florida State University Rec Sportsplex |
●●●○○ Toss-up | 47% |
2–1 | 1.63 | 1.46 | Swing game |
| Sat Mar 6 02:30 PM |
St. Petersburg FC 9th · 0-0-7 · GD -23 |
Home Patton Park |
●○○○○ Favorable | 89% |
3–0 | 2.74 | 1.58 | Bank it |
| Sun Mar 7 10:30 AM |
Tampa Bay United 6th · 1-3-2 · GD +2 |
Home Patton Park · turf? |
●●●○○ Toss-up | 45% |
1–1 | 1.58 | 1.58 | Swing game |
| Sat Apr 3 10:30 AM |
Sporting SA JAX 8th · 1-1-5 · GD -4 |
Home Patton Park |
●●●○○ Toss-up | 53% |
1–0 | 1.83 | 1.60 | Swing game |
| Sat Apr 10 09:00 AM |
Seminole United 7th · 2-0-4 · GD -16 |
Away far trip
Seminole |
●○○○○ Favorable | 75% |
2–1 | 2.40 | 1.65 | Bank it |
| Sun Apr 11 10:30 AM |
Sporting SA TLH 5th · 1-1-1 · GD -1 |
Home Patton Park |
●●●○○ Toss-up | 58% |
2–1 | 1.92 | 1.67 | Swing game |
| Sat Apr 17 09:00 AM |
Florida Kraze Krush 1st · 5-1-0 · GD +11 |
Away far trip
Central Winds |
●●●●● Very tough | 16% |
0–1 | 0.71 | 1.61 | Upside |
"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.
Standings
| # | Team | GP | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | PPG | Form | SoS | Run-in | Top 4 | Exp. finish | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| 1 | Florida Kraze Krush | 6 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 13 | 2 | +11 | 16 | 2.67 | WWWWD | +0.07 | -0.29 | 100% | 1.9 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 17 at Seminole United · Sat Oct 24 at Tampa Bay United · Sun Oct 25 at St. Petersburg FC See all 10 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 2 | Florida Premier FC | 9 | 7 | 1 | 1 | 22 | 5 | +17 | 22 | 2.44 | WDWWW | -0.15 | -0.27 | 100% | 1.6 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Wed Mar 3 vs Tampa Bay United · Sat Mar 6 vs Fishhawk Premier FC · Sat Apr 3 vs Florida Kraze Krush See all 7 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 3 | Fishhawk Premier FC | 6 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 16 | 5 | +11 | 13 | 2.17 | LWDWW | +0.17 | -0.40 | 100% | 2.5 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Sep 12 at Jacksonville FC · Sun Sep 13 at Sporting SA JAX · Sun Nov 8 at Tampa Bay United See all 10 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 4 | Jacksonville FC | 8 | 4 | 0 | 4 | 14 | 11 | +3 | 12 | 1.50 | WWWLL | +0.18 | -0.27 | 73% | 4.3 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Sep 12 vs Fishhawk Premier FC · Sun Feb 28 at Sporting SA TLH · Sat Mar 6 vs St. Petersburg FC See all 8 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 5 | Sporting SA TLH | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 7 | 8 | -1 | 4 | 1.33 | LDW | -0.31 | +0.08 | 9% | 5.9 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Sep 12 at Seminole United · Sat Oct 24 at St. Petersburg FC · Sun Oct 25 at Tampa Bay United See all 13 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 6 | Tampa Bay United | 6 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 12 | 10 | +2 | 6 | 1.00 | LLDDW | +0.11 | -0.15 | 16% | 5.3 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 vs Florida Kraze Krush · Sun Oct 25 vs Sporting SA TLH · Sun Nov 8 vs Fishhawk Premier FC See all 10 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 7 | Seminole United | 6 | 2 | 0 | 4 | 5 | 21 | -16 | 6 | 1.00 | LLLWL | -0.21 | +0.46 | 0% | 7.9 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Sep 12 vs Sporting SA TLH · Sun Sep 20 at Sporting SA JAX · Sat Oct 17 vs Florida Kraze Krush See all 10 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 8 | Sporting SA JAX | 7 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 6 | 10 | -4 | 4 | 0.57 | WDLLL | +0.53 | -0.37 | 2% | 6.6 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Sep 13 vs Fishhawk Premier FC · Sun Sep 20 vs Seminole United · Sun Nov 1 at Sporting SA TLH See all 9 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 9 | St. Petersburg FC | 7 | 0 | 0 | 7 | 2 | 25 | -23 | 0 | 0.00 | LLLLL | -0.17 | +0.61 | 0% | 9.0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 vs Sporting SA TLH · Sun Oct 25 vs Florida Kraze Krush · Sun Feb 21 at Fishhawk Premier FC See all 9 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.
How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (1.73 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.