Sporting SA JAX
ECNL Regional League Girls · Florida GU15 · 9 teams · Sporting SA (all teams)
Next game — Sat Mar 6, 02:00 PM
Indian Trails Sports Complex, Field 2 ↗
●○○○○ Favorable to win
Most likely score 3–0 (expected goals 3.6 for, 0.7 against · 2.73 expected points)
| Season so far | Sporting SA JAX | Tampa Bay United |
|---|---|---|
| Position | 1st | 7th |
| Record (W-D-L) | 7-2-0 | 1-2-4 |
| Points per game | 2.56 | 0.71 |
| Goals for / game | 2.7 | 1.0 |
| Goals against / game | 0.8 | 2.4 |
| Clean sheets | 5 | 0 |
| Held scoreless | 1 | 2 |
| Form (recent first) | W D W W W | D D L L L |
| Biggest win | 6–0 at Tampa Bay United | 2–1 at Sporting SA TLH |
| Worst loss | — | 0–6 vs Sporting SA JAX |
| Model rating (net goals vs avg) | +1.44 | -0.96 |
| Schedule faced (avg opp. rating) | +0.06 | +0.09 |
Already played this season: Sun Sep 27 6–0 at Tampa Bay United (W)
Common opponents: Sporting SA TLH — we 3–0; they 2–1. Florida Premier FC — we 2–1, 2–0; they 1–2. Fishhawk Premier FC — we 0–0, 3–3; they 2–3, 1–1. Jacksonville FC — we 1–0; they 0–3.
Game plan
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They leak goals — be greedy
Tampa Bay United concede 2.4/game; worst result 0–6 vs Sporting SA JAX.Commit numbers forward, shoot early and often, and attack second balls. Goal difference is the tiebreaker on PPG, so keep playing to score for the full game — rotate players rather than pace.
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Finishing wins the tight ones
Held scoreless 1 time(s): 0–0 vs Fishhawk Premier FC.Against a low block, the first goal usually comes from a cross or a cut-back, not a dribble. Get 2–3 bodies in the box on every wide entry and finish practice this week at game speed.
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Expected win — the trap is complacency
Model gives a 88% chance; likely score 3–0.Treat the first 15 minutes like a final: score early, then the game manages itself. This is the ideal game to give rotation players real minutes in the second half without risking points.
If Saturday goes…
Where we'd sit after the Tampa Bay United game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (Sporting SA JAX – Tampa Bay United) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 6 other games that week (Mon Mar 1 – Sun Mar 7); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.
| Our result | Rivals don't play | Likely results | Every rival wins |
|---|---|---|---|
| – Win · 2.60 PPG |
1st— holds | 1st— holds | 1st— holds |
| Win 2.60 PPG |
1st— holds | 1st— holds | 1st— holds |
| Draw 2.40 PPG |
1st— holds | 1st— holds | 1st— holds |
| Loss 2.30 PPG |
1st— holds | 1st— holds | 2nd▼ down 1 |
Can we move up this round? No. With a 3–0 win we stay 1st even if every rival loses, whatever the rivals do.
Where we finish
2,000 simulated seasons
- 1st 90%
- 2nd 10%
- 3rd <1%
- 4th
- 5th
- 6th
- 7th
- 8th
- 9th
Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.
Climbing the table
Top of the table. The job is to stay there: see the path below for where points are most at risk.
How the results connect
53 chains · 6 teams
Paths of results that link Sporting SA JAX to Tampa Bay United through teams both have faced, drawn as one map. Teams sit in columns by how many games away from us they are. Each arrow is one game, pointing away from us, and its colour is the result for the team it starts from. Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain and see its net goal margin.
Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain, or step through them with the arrows. Open full screen and turn your phone to see the whole map.
Step through the chains with the arrows, or tap one on the map.
Position over the season
12 game days
The table re-sorted after each date on which a game was played. Shaded band is the top 4.
The path
run-in difficulty -0.57 · 9th hardest of 9
| Date | Opponent | Where | Difficulty | Win | Likely | Exp. pts | Run. PPG | Priority |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sun Sep 20 01:00 PM no score posted |
Seminole United 8th · 0-1-5 · GD -10 |
Home Veterans Park |
●○○○○ Favorable | 88% |
3–0 | 2.73 | 2.57 | Bank it |
| Sat Mar 6 02:00 PM |
Tampa Bay United 7th · 1-2-4 · GD -10 |
Home Indian Trails Sports Complex |
●○○○○ Favorable | 88% |
3–0 | 2.73 | 2.59 | Bank it |
| Sun Mar 7 10:00 AM |
St. Petersburg FC 6th · 3-1-4 · GD +0 |
Home Indian Trails Sports Complex |
●●○○○ Lean win | 72% |
2–0 | 2.33 | 2.57 | Bank it |
| Sat Apr 3 12:30 PM |
Jacksonville FC 5th · 4-1-4 · GD +3 |
Away Patton Park |
●●●○○ Toss-up | 51% |
1–0 | 1.79 | 2.51 | Swing game |
| Sat Apr 10 11:00 AM |
Sporting SA TLH 9th · 0-0-6 · GD -18 |
Home Veterans Park |
●○○○○ Favorable | 95% |
4–0 | 2.89 | 2.53 | Bank it |
| Sun Apr 11 01:00 PM |
Florida Kraze Krush 4th · 3-0-3 · GD +5 |
Away far trip
Shane Kelly Park |
●●○○○ Lean win | 58% |
2–1 | 1.94 | 2.49 | Swing game |
| Sat Apr 17 09:00 AM |
Seminole United 8th · 0-1-5 · GD -10 |
Away far trip
Seminole |
●○○○○ Favorable | 83% |
2–0 | 2.61 | 2.50 | Bank it |
"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.
Standings
| # | Team | GP | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | PPG | Form | SoS | Run-in | Top 4 | Exp. finish | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| 1 | Sporting SA JAX | 9 | 7 | 2 | 0 | 24 | 7 | +17 | 23 | 2.56 | WWWDW | +0.06 | -0.57 | 100% | 1.1 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Sep 20 vs Seminole United · Sat Mar 6 vs Tampa Bay United · Sun Mar 7 vs St. Petersburg FC See all 7 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 2 | Fishhawk Premier FC | 11 | 7 | 4 | 0 | 24 | 12 | +12 | 25 | 2.27 | WDWDW | -0.04 | -0.42 | 100% | 2.0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Mar 6 at Florida Premier FC · Sat Apr 3 vs Seminole United · Sun Apr 4 vs Florida Kraze Krush See all 5 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 3 | Florida Premier FC | 10 | 5 | 1 | 4 | 14 | 13 | +1 | 16 | 1.60 | WWDLL | +0.12 | -0.39 | 56% | 4.3 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Tue Mar 2 vs Tampa Bay United · Sat Mar 6 vs Fishhawk Premier FC · Sat Apr 3 vs Florida Kraze Krush See all 6 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 4 | Florida Kraze Krush | 6 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 16 | 11 | +5 | 9 | 1.50 | WLWLL | +0.18 | -0.31 | 73% | 3.8 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 17 at Seminole United · Sat Oct 24 at Tampa Bay United · Sun Oct 25 at St. Petersburg FC See all 10 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 5 | Jacksonville FC | 9 | 4 | 1 | 4 | 11 | 8 | +3 | 13 | 1.44 | WWLWL | +0.23 | -0.51 | 58% | 4.3 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Feb 28 at Sporting SA TLH · Sat Mar 6 vs St. Petersburg FC · Sun Mar 7 vs Tampa Bay United See all 7 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 6 | St. Petersburg FC | 8 | 3 | 1 | 4 | 12 | 12 | +0 | 10 | 1.25 | WLLWD | -0.09 | -0.05 | 13% | 5.6 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 vs Sporting SA TLH · Sun Oct 25 vs Florida Kraze Krush · Sat Mar 6 at Jacksonville FC See all 8 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 7 | Tampa Bay United | 7 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 7 | 17 | -10 | 5 | 0.71 | LLLDD | +0.09 | +0.03 | 0% | 7.2 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 vs Florida Kraze Krush · Sun Oct 25 vs Sporting SA TLH · Tue Mar 2 at Florida Premier FC See all 9 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 8 | Seminole United | 6 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 2 | 12 | -10 | 1 | 0.17 | LLLLD | +0.05 | +0.08 | 0% | 8.1 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Sep 12 vs Sporting SA TLH · Sun Sep 20 at Sporting SA JAX · Sat Oct 17 vs Florida Kraze Krush See all 10 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 9 | Sporting SA TLH | 6 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 3 | 21 | -18 | 0 | 0.00 | LLLLL | +0.32 | +0.05 | 0% | 8.7 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Sep 12 at Seminole United · Sat Oct 24 at St. Petersburg FC · Sun Oct 25 at Tampa Bay United See all 10 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.
How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (1.58 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.