Jacksonville FC

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Florida State University Rec Sportsplex, Field C ↗ far trip

●●○○○ Lean win to win

Most likely score 2–0 (expected goals 2.2 for, 0.6 against · 2.36 expected points)

Common opponents: Fishhawk Premier FC — we 2–2, 1–2; they 1–2. Florida Premier FC — we 0–1, 1–0; they 1–5. Florida Kraze Krush — we 1–2; they 0–7. Tampa Bay United — we 3–0; they 1–2. St. Petersburg FC — we 1–0; they 0–2. Sporting SA JAX — we 0–1; they 0–3.

• They struggle to score
  Sporting SA TLH average 0.5 goals/game (league avg 1.6); blanked in 3 of 6.

  A higher defensive line and an aggressive counter-press are low-risk here. Keep the back line connected to midfield so one long ball doesn't turn into a 1v1 — that is the only way this opponent scores.

• They leak goals — be greedy
  Sporting SA TLH concede 3.5/game; worst result 0–7 at Florida Kraze Krush.

  Commit numbers forward, shoot early and often, and attack second balls. Goal difference is the tiebreaker on PPG, so keep playing to score for the full game — rotate players rather than pace.

• Finishing wins the tight ones
  Held scoreless 2 time(s): 0–1 vs Florida Premier FC, 0–1 at Sporting SA JAX.

  Against a low block, the first goal usually comes from a cross or a cut-back, not a dribble. Get 2–3 bodies in the box on every wide entry and finish practice this week at game speed.

• Expected win — the trap is complacency
  Model gives a 73% chance; likely score 2–0.

  Treat the first 15 minutes like a final: score early, then the game manages itself. This is the ideal game to give rotation players real minutes in the second half without risking points.

• Confidence is low on their side
  Sporting SA TLH have lost 6 straight (form: LLLLL).

  Teams on losing runs go quiet after conceding. An early goal usually ends the contest — start fast.

• Away game
  Kickoff 01:00 PM at Florida State University Rec Sportsplex.

  Arrive 75 minutes early to see the surface and goal size; plan a longer dynamic warm-up after a drive. Away wins are worth the same 3 points — keep the routine identical to home.

• What a win does
  Florida Kraze Krush sit 4th on 1.50 PPG; we are on 1.44.

  A point moves us above Florida Kraze Krush on PPG (if they don't play). GD is the next tiebreak, so every goal matters — keep attacking with a lead.

Where we'd sit after the Sporting SA TLH game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (Jacksonville FC – Sporting SA TLH) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 0 other games that week (Mon Feb 22 – Sun Feb 28); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.

Can we move up this round? Yes. With a 2–0 win we finish as high as 3rd if every rival drops points, whatever the rivals do.

1. 1st <1%
2. 2nd 1%
3. 3rd 21%
4. 4th 35%
5. 5th 31%
6. 6th 12%
7. 7th <1%
8. 8th <1%
9. 9th

Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.

What it takes to pass each team above us, from our 7 remaining known games (max 2.13 PPG if we win out).