SWFL PREMIER FC
ECNL Regional League Girls · Florida GU13 · 8 teams · Florida Premier FC (all teams)
Next game — Sat Oct 24, 01:00 PM
Lakewood Ranch Park, Field 5 ↗
●●●●● Very tough to win
Most likely score 0–3 (expected goals 0.5 for, 3.5 against · 0.15 expected points)
| Season so far | SWFL PREMIER FC | AC Florida West |
|---|---|---|
| Position | 7th | 3rd |
| Record (W-D-L) | 1-1-4 | 4-0-1 |
| Points per game | 0.67 | 2.40 |
| Goals for / game | 0.5 | 4.4 |
| Goals against / game | 2.3 | 0.4 |
| Clean sheets | 2 | 3 |
| Held scoreless | 4 | 1 |
| Form (recent first) | L L L W D | W W W L W |
| Biggest win | 2–0 vs Cape Coral SA | 8–0 vs SFFA |
| Worst loss | 0–5 at Athletic Club Florida Miami | 0–1 vs Athletic Club Florida Miami |
| Model rating (net goals vs avg) | -1.16 | +2.13 |
| Schedule faced (avg opp. rating) | +0.19 | -0.62 |
Already played this season: Sun Oct 18 0–4 at AC Florida West (L)
Common opponents: Team Boca — we 1–4; they 4–0. SFFA — we 0–0; they 8–0. Cape Coral SA — we 2–0; they 6–1. Athletic Club Florida Miami — we 0–5; they 0–1.
Game plan
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Respect their attack
AC Florida West score 4.4/game — well above the league's 1.7.Deny the easy goals first: compact shape between the lines, no fouls in shooting range, and a plan for their best outlet. Score first and make them chase.
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Hard to break down
AC Florida West concede only 0.4/game with 3 clean sheet(s).Patience and width: move the ball quickly side to side to pull the block apart, and treat set pieces as your best chance — rehearse two corner routines and a near-post free-kick delivery.
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Finishing wins the tight ones
Held scoreless 4 time(s): 0–0 vs SFFA, 0–5 at Athletic Club Florida Miami, 0–1 at Athletic Club Florida, 0–4 at AC Florida West.Against a low block, the first goal usually comes from a cross or a cut-back, not a dribble. Get 2–3 bodies in the box on every wide entry and finish practice this week at game speed.
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Underdog — play free, stay organised
Model gives 3%; a draw (7%) would be a good result.Keep the shape compact, make them play in front of you, and hit space behind their full-backs on transitions. A point here is a win for the table; a win is a season-changer.
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They arrive in form
AC Florida West have won 3 straight.Don't let them settle: deny the first 10 minutes of rhythm with pressure on their first pass out of the back.
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What a win does
SFFA sit 6th on 0.80 PPG; we are on 0.67.A point moves us above SFFA on PPG (if they don't play). GD is the next tiebreak, so every goal matters — keep attacking with a lead.
If Saturday goes…
Where we'd sit after the AC Florida West game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (SWFL PREMIER FC – AC Florida West) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 6 other games that week (Mon Oct 19 – Sun Oct 25); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.
| Our result | Rivals don't play | Likely results | Every rival wins |
|---|---|---|---|
| – Loss · 0.57 PPG |
7th— holds | 6th▲ up 1 | 8th▼ down 1 |
| Win 1.00 PPG |
6th▲ up 1 | 6th▲ up 1 | 7th— holds |
| Draw 0.71 PPG |
7th— holds | 6th▲ up 1 | 7th— holds |
| Loss 0.57 PPG |
7th— holds | 6th▲ up 1 | 8th▼ down 1 |
Can we move up this round? Yes. With a 0–3 loss we finish as high as 6th if every rival drops points, and as low as 8th if every rival wins.
Where we finish
2,000 simulated seasons
- 1st
- 2nd
- 3rd
- 4th <1%
- 5th 2%
- 6th 51%
- 7th 45%
- 8th 2%
Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.
Climbing the table
What it takes to pass each team above us, from our 8 remaining known games (max 2.00 PPG if we win out).
| # | Team | PPG | Proj. | To pass them |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Athletic Club Florida Miami | 3.00 (+2.33) | 1st (2.58) | 38 of 24 pts to pass their current pace, 33 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule |
| 2 | ACF Sunrise | 3.00 (+2.33) | 3rd (2.18) | 38 of 24 pts to pass their current pace, 27 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule |
| 3 | AC Florida West | 2.40 (+1.73) | 2nd (2.28) | 30 of 24 pts to pass their current pace, 28 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule |
| 4 | Athletic Club Florida | 1.75 (+1.08) | 4th (1.58) | 21 of 24 pts to pass their current pace, 19 for their projection |
| 5 | Team Boca | 1.40 (+0.73) | 5th (1.33) | 16 of 24 pts to pass their current pace, 15 for their projection |
| 6 | SFFA | 0.80 (+0.13) | 6th (0.68) | A point next game |
How the results connect
15 chains · 7 teams
Paths of results that link SWFL PREMIER FC to AC Florida West through teams both have faced, drawn as one map. Teams sit in columns by how many games away from us they are. Each arrow is one game, pointing away from us, and its colour is the result for the team it starts from. Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain and see its net goal margin.
Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain, or step through them with the arrows. Open full screen and turn your phone to see the whole map.
Step through the chains with the arrows, or tap one on the map.
Position over the season
9 game days
The table re-sorted after each date on which a game was played. Shaded band is the top 4.
The path
run-in difficulty +0.38 · 2nd hardest of 8
| Date | Opponent | Where | Difficulty | Win | Likely | Exp. pts | Run. PPG | Priority |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat Oct 24 01:00 PM |
AC Florida West 3rd · 4-0-1 · GD +20 |
Home Lakewood Ranch Park |
●●●●● Very tough | 3% |
0–3 | 0.15 | 0.59 | Upside |
| Sun Oct 25 11:00 AM |
ACF Sunrise 2nd · 4-0-0 · GD +10 |
Home Lakewood Ranch Park |
●●●●● Very tough | 6% |
0–2 | 0.34 | 0.56 | Upside |
| Sun Mar 7 03:00 PM |
ACF Sunrise 2nd · 4-0-0 · GD +10 |
Away far trip
Nob Hill Soccer Park |
●●●●● Very tough | 4% |
0–2 | 0.24 | 0.52 | Upside |
| Sat Apr 3 12:00 PM |
SFFA 6th · 1-1-3 · GD -17 |
Away far trip
Canyon District Park |
●●●●○ Tough | 38% |
1–1 | 1.39 | 0.61 | Upside |
| Sun Apr 4 01:00 PM |
Team Boca 5th · 2-1-2 · GD -1 |
Away far trip
Fau Glades |
●●●●● Very tough | 15% |
0–1 | 0.70 | 0.62 | Upside |
| Sat Apr 10 11:00 AM |
Athletic Club Florida 4th · 2-1-1 · GD +4 |
Home Lakewood Ranch Park |
●●●●● Very tough | 13% |
0–1 | 0.60 | 0.62 | Upside |
| Sun Apr 11 11:00 AM |
Athletic Club Florida Miami 1st · 4-0-0 · GD +21 |
Home Lakewood Ranch Park |
●●●●● Very tough | 2% |
0–4 | 0.10 | 0.58 | Upside |
| Sat Apr 17 01:00 PM |
Cape Coral SA 8th · 0-0-7 · GD -26 |
Away far trip
Cape Coral Sports Complex |
●●●○○ Toss-up | 53% |
1–0 | 1.85 | 0.67 | Swing game |
"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.
Standings
| # | Team | GP | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | PPG | Form | SoS | Run-in | Top 4 | Exp. finish | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| 1 | Athletic Club Florida Miami | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 22 | 1 | +21 | 12 | 3.00 | WWWW | -0.87 | -0.04 | 100% | 1.3 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Sep 12 at Team Boca · Sun Sep 20 at ACF Sunrise · Sat Oct 24 vs SFFA See all 10 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 2 | ACF Sunrise | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 11 | 1 | +10 | 12 | 3.00 | WWWW | -0.99 | +0.31 | 100% | 2.6 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Mon Jan 1 at Athletic Club Florida · Sun Aug 23 at AC Florida West · Sun Sep 20 vs Athletic Club Florida Miami See all 10 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 3 | AC Florida West | 5 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 22 | 2 | +20 | 12 | 2.40 | WLWWW | -0.62 | +0.02 | 100% | 2.2 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Aug 23 vs ACF Sunrise · Sat Oct 24 at SWFL PREMIER FC · Sun Oct 25 at Cape Coral SA See all 9 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 4 | Athletic Club Florida | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 6 | 2 | +4 | 7 | 1.75 | DLWW | -0.68 | +0.31 | 78% | 4.1 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Mon Jan 1 vs ACF Sunrise · Sat Oct 24 vs Team Boca · Sun Oct 25 vs SFFA See all 10 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 5 | Team Boca | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 5 | 6 | -1 | 7 | 1.40 | DWWLL | +0.07 | +0.17 | 22% | 4.8 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Sep 12 vs Athletic Club Florida Miami · Sat Oct 24 at Athletic Club Florida · Sun Oct 25 at Athletic Club Florida Miami See all 9 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 6 | SFFA | 5 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 21 | -17 | 4 | 0.80 | LWDLL | +0.47 | +0.32 | 0% | 6.5 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 at Athletic Club Florida Miami · Sun Oct 25 at Athletic Club Florida · Sat Oct 31 vs Team Boca See all 9 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 7 | SWFL PREMIER FC | 6 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 3 | 14 | -11 | 4 | 0.67 | DWLLL | +0.19 | +0.38 | 0% | 6.5 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 vs AC Florida West · Sun Oct 25 vs ACF Sunrise · Sun Mar 7 at ACF Sunrise See all 8 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 8 | Cape Coral SA | 7 | 0 | 0 | 7 | 1 | 27 | -26 | 0 | 0.00 | LLLLL | +0.45 | +0.44 | 0% | 7.9 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 vs ACF Sunrise · Sun Oct 25 vs AC Florida West · Sat Apr 3 at Team Boca See all 7 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.
How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (1.70 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.