AC Florida West
ECNL Regional League Girls · Florida GU13 · 8 teams · AC Florida West (all teams)
Next game — Sat Oct 24, 01:00 PM
Lakewood Ranch Park, Field 5 ↗ far trip
●○○○○ Favorable to win
Most likely score 3–0 (expected goals 3.5 for, 0.5 against · 2.78 expected points)
| Season so far | AC Florida West | SWFL PREMIER FC |
|---|---|---|
| Position | 3rd | 7th |
| Record (W-D-L) | 4-0-1 | 1-1-4 |
| Points per game | 2.40 | 0.67 |
| Goals for / game | 4.4 | 0.5 |
| Goals against / game | 0.4 | 2.3 |
| Clean sheets | 3 | 2 |
| Held scoreless | 1 | 4 |
| Form (recent first) | W W W L W | L L L W D |
| Biggest win | 8–0 vs SFFA | 2–0 vs Cape Coral SA |
| Worst loss | 0–1 vs Athletic Club Florida Miami | 0–5 at Athletic Club Florida Miami |
| Model rating (net goals vs avg) | +2.13 | -1.16 |
| Schedule faced (avg opp. rating) | -0.62 | +0.19 |
Already played this season: Sun Oct 18 4–0 vs SWFL PREMIER FC (W)
Common opponents: Cape Coral SA — we 6–1; they 2–0. Athletic Club Florida Miami — we 0–1; they 0–5. SFFA — we 8–0; they 0–0. Team Boca — we 4–0; they 1–4.
Game plan
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They struggle to score
SWFL PREMIER FC average 0.5 goals/game (league avg 1.7); blanked in 4 of 6.A higher defensive line and an aggressive counter-press are low-risk here. Keep the back line connected to midfield so one long ball doesn't turn into a 1v1 — that is the only way this opponent scores.
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Finishing wins the tight ones
Held scoreless 1 time(s): 0–1 vs Athletic Club Florida Miami.Against a low block, the first goal usually comes from a cross or a cut-back, not a dribble. Get 2–3 bodies in the box on every wide entry and finish practice this week at game speed.
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Expected win — the trap is complacency
Model gives a 90% chance; likely score 3–0.Treat the first 15 minutes like a final: score early, then the game manages itself. This is the ideal game to give rotation players real minutes in the second half without risking points.
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Confidence is low on their side
SWFL PREMIER FC have lost 3 straight (form: DWLLL).Teams on losing runs go quiet after conceding. An early goal usually ends the contest — start fast.
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Away game
Kickoff 01:00 PM at Lakewood Ranch Park.Arrive 75 minutes early to see the surface and goal size; plan a longer dynamic warm-up after a drive. Away wins are worth the same 3 points — keep the routine identical to home.
If Saturday goes…
Where we'd sit after the SWFL PREMIER FC game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (AC Florida West – SWFL PREMIER FC) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 6 other games that week (Mon Oct 19 – Sun Oct 25); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.
| Our result | Rivals don't play | Likely results | Every rival wins |
|---|---|---|---|
| – Win · 2.50 PPG |
3rd— holds | 3rd— holds | 3rd— holds |
| Win 2.50 PPG |
3rd— holds | 3rd— holds | 3rd— holds |
| Draw 2.17 PPG |
3rd— holds | 3rd— holds | 3rd— holds |
| Loss 2.00 PPG |
3rd— holds | 4th▼ down 1 | 4th▼ down 1 |
Can we move up this round? Yes. With a 3–0 win we finish as high as 1st if every rival drops points, and as low as 3rd if every rival wins.
Where we finish
2,000 simulated seasons
- 1st 17%
- 2nd 49%
- 3rd 32%
- 4th 2%
- 5th <1%
- 6th
- 7th
- 8th
Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.
Climbing the table
What it takes to pass each team above us, from our 9 remaining known games (max 2.79 PPG if we win out).
| # | Team | PPG | Proj. | To pass them |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Athletic Club Florida Miami | 3.00 (+0.60) | 1st (2.58) | 30 of 27 pts to pass their current pace, 25 for their projection |
| 2 | ACF Sunrise | 3.00 (+0.60) | 3rd (2.18) | 30 of 27 pts to pass their current pace, 19 for their projection |
How the results connect
15 chains · 7 teams
Paths of results that link AC Florida West to SWFL PREMIER FC through teams both have faced, drawn as one map. Teams sit in columns by how many games away from us they are. Each arrow is one game, pointing away from us, and its colour is the result for the team it starts from. Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain and see its net goal margin.
Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain, or step through them with the arrows. Open full screen and turn your phone to see the whole map.
Step through the chains with the arrows, or tap one on the map.
Position over the season
9 game days
The table re-sorted after each date on which a game was played. Shaded band is the top 4.
The path
run-in difficulty +0.02 · 7th hardest of 8
| Date | Opponent | Where | Difficulty | Win | Likely | Exp. pts | Run. PPG | Priority |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sun Aug 23 TBD no score posted |
ACF Sunrise 2nd · 4-0-0 · GD +10 |
Home |
●●●○○ Toss-up | 55% |
1–1 | 1.88 | 2.31 | Swing game |
| Sat Oct 24 01:00 PM |
SWFL PREMIER FC 7th · 1-1-4 · GD -11 |
Away far trip
Lakewood Ranch Park |
●○○○○ Favorable | 90% |
3–0 | 2.78 | 2.38 | Bank it |
| Sun Oct 25 01:00 PM |
Cape Coral SA 8th · 0-0-7 · GD -26 |
Away Pelican Soccer Complex |
●○○○○ Favorable | 98% |
5–0 | 2.95 | 2.45 | Bank it |
| Sun Jan 10 02:00 PM |
Athletic Club Florida 4th · 2-1-1 · GD +4 |
Home Bayshore Sports Complex |
●●○○○ Lean win | 68% |
2–0 | 2.24 | 2.43 | Swing game |
| Sat Mar 6 01:00 PM |
Athletic Club Florida 4th · 2-1-1 · GD +4 |
Away far trip
Nob Hill Soccer Park |
●●○○○ Lean win | 60% |
1–0 | 2.02 | 2.39 | Swing game |
| Sun Mar 7 03:30 PM |
Athletic Club Florida Miami 1st · 4-0-0 · GD +21 |
Away far trip
Miami Dade College |
●●●●○ Tough | 29% |
1–2 | 1.08 | 2.27 | Upside |
| Sat Apr 10 01:00 PM |
Team Boca 5th · 2-1-2 · GD -1 |
Away far trip
Fau Glades |
●●○○○ Lean win | 74% |
2–0 | 2.38 | 2.28 | Bank it |
| Sun Apr 11 10:00 AM |
SFFA 6th · 1-1-3 · GD -17 |
Away far trip
Canyon District Park |
●○○○○ Favorable | 96% |
5–0 | 2.92 | 2.33 | Bank it |
| Sun Apr 18 03:00 PM |
ACF Sunrise 2nd · 4-0-0 · GD +10 |
Away far trip
Nob Hill Soccer Park |
●●●○○ Toss-up | 46% |
1–1 | 1.63 | 2.28 | Swing game |
"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.
Standings
| # | Team | GP | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | PPG | Form | SoS | Run-in | Top 4 | Exp. finish | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| 1 | Athletic Club Florida Miami | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 22 | 1 | +21 | 12 | 3.00 | WWWW | -0.87 | -0.04 | 100% | 1.3 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Sep 12 at Team Boca · Sun Sep 20 at ACF Sunrise · Sat Oct 24 vs SFFA See all 10 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 2 | ACF Sunrise | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 11 | 1 | +10 | 12 | 3.00 | WWWW | -0.99 | +0.31 | 100% | 2.6 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Mon Jan 1 at Athletic Club Florida · Sun Aug 23 at AC Florida West · Sun Sep 20 vs Athletic Club Florida Miami See all 10 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 3 | AC Florida West | 5 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 22 | 2 | +20 | 12 | 2.40 | WLWWW | -0.62 | +0.02 | 100% | 2.2 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Aug 23 vs ACF Sunrise · Sat Oct 24 at SWFL PREMIER FC · Sun Oct 25 at Cape Coral SA See all 9 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 4 | Athletic Club Florida | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 6 | 2 | +4 | 7 | 1.75 | DLWW | -0.68 | +0.31 | 78% | 4.2 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Mon Jan 1 vs ACF Sunrise · Sat Oct 24 vs Team Boca · Sun Oct 25 vs SFFA See all 10 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 5 | Team Boca | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 5 | 6 | -1 | 7 | 1.40 | DWWLL | +0.07 | +0.17 | 22% | 4.8 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Sep 12 vs Athletic Club Florida Miami · Sat Oct 24 at Athletic Club Florida · Sun Oct 25 at Athletic Club Florida Miami See all 9 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 6 | SFFA | 5 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 21 | -17 | 4 | 0.80 | LWDLL | +0.47 | +0.32 | 0% | 6.5 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 at Athletic Club Florida Miami · Sun Oct 25 at Athletic Club Florida · Sat Oct 31 vs Team Boca See all 9 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 7 | SWFL PREMIER FC | 6 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 3 | 14 | -11 | 4 | 0.67 | DWLLL | +0.19 | +0.38 | 0% | 6.5 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 vs AC Florida West · Sun Oct 25 vs ACF Sunrise · Sun Mar 7 at ACF Sunrise See all 8 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 8 | Cape Coral SA | 7 | 0 | 0 | 7 | 1 | 27 | -26 | 0 | 0.00 | LLLLL | +0.45 | +0.44 | 0% | 7.9 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 vs ACF Sunrise · Sun Oct 25 vs AC Florida West · Sat Apr 3 at Team Boca See all 7 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.
How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (1.70 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.