VSA
ECNL Regional League Boys · Virginia BU16 · 9 teams · Virginia Soccer Association (all teams)
Next game — Sun Oct 25, 02:00 PM
South Fork Soccer Park, Field 4 ↗ far trip
●●●○○ Toss-up to win
Most likely score 2–1 (expected goals 2.1 for, 1.7 against · 1.60 expected points)
| Season so far | VSA | SOCA Elite |
|---|---|---|
| Position | 7th | 8th |
| Record (W-D-L) | 2-2-3 | 1-1-2 |
| Points per game | 1.14 | 1.00 |
| Goals for / game | 1.4 | 2.3 |
| Goals against / game | 1.3 | 3.0 |
| Clean sheets | 1 | 0 |
| Held scoreless | 3 | 0 |
| Form (recent first) | L W D W L | L D L W |
| Biggest win | 3–0 at Villarreal Virginia Academy | 5–1 vs Villarreal Virginia Academy |
| Worst loss | 0–2 vs Prince William Courage | 1–6 at Richmond United Orange |
| Model rating (net goals vs avg) | +0.11 | -0.50 |
| Schedule faced (avg opp. rating) | +0.05 | -0.19 |
Common opponents: LMVSC — we 0–1; they 1–1. Villarreal Virginia Academy — we 3–0; they 5–1. Richmond United Orange — we 2–2; they 1–6. Vienna Youth Soccer — we 4–1; they 2–4.
Game plan
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They leak goals — be greedy
SOCA Elite concede 3.0/game; worst result 1–6 at Richmond United Orange.Commit numbers forward, shoot early and often, and attack second balls. Goal difference is the tiebreaker on PPG, so keep playing to score for the full game — rotate players rather than pace.
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Finishing wins the tight ones
Held scoreless 3 time(s): 0–1 vs LMVSC, 0–2 vs Prince William Courage, 0–2 vs Richmond United Red.Against a low block, the first goal usually comes from a cross or a cut-back, not a dribble. Get 2–3 bodies in the box on every wide entry and finish practice this week at game speed.
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Swing game — small margins
Win 46% / draw 21% / loss 33%.Games like this are decided by one set piece or one transition. Prioritise the strongest XI for the full game, be disciplined with fouls near the box, and have a clear late-game plan for both "protect the lead" and "chase".
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Away game
Kickoff 02:00 PM at South Fork Soccer Park.Arrive 75 minutes early to see the surface and goal size; plan a longer dynamic warm-up after a drive. Away wins are worth the same 3 points — keep the routine identical to home.
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What a win does
Vienna Youth Soccer sit 6th on 1.17 PPG; we are on 1.14.A point moves us above Vienna Youth Soccer on PPG (if they don't play). GD is the next tiebreak, so every goal matters — keep attacking with a lead.
If Sunday goes…
Where we'd sit after the SOCA Elite game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (VSA – SOCA Elite) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 5 other games that week (Mon Oct 19 – Sun Oct 25); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.
| Our result | Rivals don't play | Likely results | Every rival wins |
|---|---|---|---|
| – Win · 1.38 PPG |
5th▲ up 2 | 6th▲ up 1 | 7th— holds |
| Win 1.38 PPG |
5th▲ up 2 | 6th▲ up 1 | 7th— holds |
| Draw 1.13 PPG |
7th— holds | 6th▲ up 1 | 8th▼ down 1 |
| Loss 1.00 PPG |
8th▼ down 1 | 7th— holds | 8th▼ down 1 |
Can we move up this round? Yes. With a 2–1 win we finish as high as 4th if every rival drops points, and as low as 7th if every rival wins.
Where we finish
2,000 simulated seasons
- 1st
- 2nd
- 3rd
- 4th 1%
- 5th 15%
- 6th 45%
- 7th 28%
- 8th 12%
- 9th
Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.
Climbing the table
What it takes to pass each team above us, from our 1 remaining known games (max 1.38 PPG if we win out).
| # | Team | PPG | Proj. | To pass them |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Prince William Courage | 2.40 (+1.26) | 1st (2.32) | 12 of 3 pts to pass their current pace, 11 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule |
| 2 | LMVSC | 2.00 (+0.86) | 2nd (1.99) | 8 of 3 pts to pass their current pace, 8 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule |
| 3 | Virginia United | 2.00 (+0.86) | 3rd (1.79) | 8 of 3 pts to pass their current pace, 7 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule |
| 4 | Richmond United Red | 1.50 (+0.36) | 4th (1.56) | 4 of 3 pts to pass their current pace, 5 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule |
| 5 | Richmond United Orange | 1.33 (+0.19) | 5th (1.54) | A point next game |
| 6 | Vienna Youth Soccer | 1.17 (+0.03) | 7th (1.09) | A point next game |
How the results connect
21 chains · 7 teams
Paths of results that link VSA to SOCA Elite through teams both have faced, drawn as one map. Teams sit in columns by how many games away from us they are. Each arrow is one game, pointing away from us, and its colour is the result for the team it starts from. Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain and see its net goal margin.
Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain, or step through them with the arrows. Open full screen and turn your phone to see the whole map.
Step through the chains with the arrows, or tap one on the map.
Position over the season
7 game days
The table re-sorted after each date on which a game was played. Shaded band is the top 4.
The path
run-in difficulty -0.50 · 7th hardest of 9
| Date | Opponent | Where | Difficulty | Win | Likely | Exp. pts | Run. PPG | Priority |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sun Oct 25 02:00 PM |
SOCA Elite 8th · 1-1-2 · GD -3 |
Away far trip
South Fork Soccer Park |
●●●○○ Toss-up | 46% |
2–1 | 1.60 | 1.20 | Swing game |
"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.
Standings
| # | Team | GP | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | PPG | Form | SoS | Run-in | Top 4 | Exp. finish | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| 1 | Prince William Courage | 5 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 8 | 4 | +4 | 12 | 2.40 | LWWWW | +0.39 | -0.87 | 100% | 1.3 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 at SOCA Elite · Sun Oct 25 vs Vienna Youth Soccer · Sun Nov 1 at Villarreal Virginia Academy See all 3 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 2 | LMVSC | 7 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 13 | 8 | +5 | 14 | 2.00 | WDDLW | -0.12 | -0.10 | 100% | 2.3 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Nov 1 vs Vienna Youth Soccer See all 1 future matchup ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 3 | Virginia United | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 7 | 4 | +3 | 10 | 2.00 | DWWWL | -0.14 | +0.19 | 77% | 3.5 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 at Richmond United Orange · Sun Oct 25 at Richmond United Red · Sat Oct 31 vs SOCA Elite See all 3 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 4 | Richmond United Red | 6 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 9 | 4 | +5 | 9 | 1.50 | DDLDW | -0.01 | -0.09 | 57% | 4.3 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Oct 25 vs Virginia United · Sun Nov 1 at SOCA Elite See all 2 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 5 | Richmond United Orange | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 14 | 10 | +4 | 8 | 1.33 | LLDDW | +0.17 | -0.85 | 59% | 4.1 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 vs Virginia United · Sun Oct 25 vs Villarreal Virginia Academy See all 2 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 6 | Vienna Youth Soccer | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 11 | 11 | +0 | 7 | 1.17 | DWLWL | -0.20 | +0.53 | 2% | 6.9 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Oct 25 at Prince William Courage · Sun Nov 1 at LMVSC See all 2 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 7 | VSA | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 10 | 9 | +1 | 8 | 1.14 | LWDWL | +0.05 | -0.50 | 1% | 6.4 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Oct 25 at SOCA Elite See all 1 future matchup ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 8 | SOCA Elite | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 9 | 12 | -3 | 4 | 1.00 | WLDL | -0.19 | +0.39 | 4% | 7.2 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 vs Prince William Courage · Sun Oct 25 vs VSA · Sat Oct 31 at Virginia United See all 4 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 9 | Villarreal Virginia Academy | 6 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 4 | 23 | -19 | 0 | 0.00 | LLLLL | +0.15 | +0.58 | 0% | 9.0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Oct 25 at Richmond United Orange · Sun Nov 1 vs Prince William Courage See all 2 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.
How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (1.65 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.