Prince William Courage

ECNL Regional League Boys · Virginia BU16 · 9 teams · Prince William Courage (all teams)

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1st

4-0-1 record · 5 played

2.40 points per game

+4 goal diff · 8–4

LWWWWlast 5

100% chance of top 4 · expected finish 1.3

+0.39 schedule faced · avg opponent rating

Next game — Sat Oct 24, 11:45 AM

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Prince William Courage
1st · 2.40 PPG

SOCA Elite
8th · 1.00 PPG

South Fork Soccer Park, Field 4 ↗ far trip

59% 19% 21%

windrawloss

●●○○○ Lean win to win

Most likely score 2–1 (expected goals 2.3 for, 1.4 against · 1.98 expected points)

Season so far	Prince William Courage	SOCA Elite
Position	1st	8th
Record (W-D-L)	4-0-1	1-1-2
Points per game	2.40	1.00
Goals for / game	1.6	2.3
Goals against / game	0.8	3.0
Clean sheets	2	0
Held scoreless	0	0
Form (recent first)	W W W W L	L D L W
Biggest win	2–0 at VSA	5–1 vs Villarreal Virginia Academy
Worst loss	1–2 vs LMVSC	1–6 at Richmond United Orange
Model rating (net goals vs avg)	+0.61	-0.50
Schedule faced (avg opp. rating)	+0.39	-0.19

Common opponents: LMVSC — we 1–2; they 1–1. Richmond United Orange — we 2–1; they 1–6.

Game plan

They leak goals — be greedy
SOCA Elite concede 3.0/game; worst result 1–6 at Richmond United Orange.
Commit numbers forward, shoot early and often, and attack second balls. Goal difference is the tiebreaker on PPG, so keep playing to score for the full game — rotate players rather than pace.
Swing game — small margins
Win 59% / draw 19% / loss 21%.
Games like this are decided by one set piece or one transition. Prioritise the strongest XI for the full game, be disciplined with fouls near the box, and have a clear late-game plan for both "protect the lead" and "chase".
Away game
Kickoff 11:45 AM at South Fork Soccer Park.
Arrive 75 minutes early to see the surface and goal size; plan a longer dynamic warm-up after a drive. Away wins are worth the same 3 points — keep the routine identical to home.

If Saturday goes…

Where we'd sit after the SOCA Elite game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (Prince William Courage – SOCA Elite) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 4 other games that week (Mon Oct 19 – Sun Oct 25); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.

Our result	Rivals don't play	Likely results	Every rival wins
– Win · 2.50 PPG	1st— holds	1st— holds	1st— holds
Win 2.50 PPG	1st— holds	1st— holds	1st— holds
Draw 2.17 PPG	1st— holds	1st— holds	2nd▼ down 1
Loss 2.00 PPG	2nd▼ down 1	2nd▼ down 1	3rd▼ down 2

Can we move up this round? No. With a 2–1 win we stay 1st even if every rival loses, whatever the rivals do.

Where we finish

2,000 simulated seasons

80% finish 1st

100% top 4

0% below the top 4

1.3 average finish

1st 80%
2nd 13%
3rd 6%
4th 1%
5th <1%
6th
7th
8th
9th

Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.

Climbing the table

Top of the table. The job is to stay there: see the path below for where points are most at risk.

How the results connect

17 chains · 9 teams

Paths of results that link Prince William Courage to SOCA Elite through teams both have faced, drawn as one map. Teams sit in columns by how many games away from us they are. Each arrow is one game, pointing away from us, and its colour is the result for the team it starts from. Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain and see its net goal margin.

13 favour us

1 even

3 favour them

+2.6 goals per chain on average. The results point our way.

won lost drew· result for the team the arrow starts from

Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain, or step through them with the arrows. Open full screen and turn your phone to see the whole map.

12 chains

Position over the season

7 game days

The table re-sorted after each date on which a game was played. Shaded band is the top 4.

The path

run-in difficulty -0.87 · 9th hardest of 9

Date	Opponent	Where	Difficulty	Win	Likely	Exp. pts	Run. PPG	Priority
Sat Oct 24 11:45 AM	SOCA Elite 8th · 1-1-2 · GD -3	Away far trip South Fork Soccer Park	●●○○○ Lean win	59%	2–1	1.98	2.33	Swing game
Sun Oct 25 02:45 PM	Vienna Youth Soccer 6th · 2-1-3 · GD +0	Home Howison Park	●●○○○ Lean win	59%	2–1	1.99	2.28	Swing game
Sun Nov 1 02:00 PM	Villarreal Virginia Academy 9th · 0-0-6 · GD -19	Away far trip Bryant High School	●○○○○ Favorable	82%	3–0	2.59	2.32	Bank it

"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.

Standings

Team

Pts

PPG

Form

SoS

Run-in

Top 4

Exp. finish

Prince William Courage

2.40

LWWWW

+0.39

-0.87

100%

1.3

W	Sun Oct 18	vs	Virginia United (3rd)	1–0
W	Sun Sep 27	vs	Richmond United Red (4th)	2–1
W	Sun Sep 20	at	Richmond United Orange (5th)	2–1
W	Sun Sep 13	at	VSA (7th)	2–0
L	Sun Aug 30	vs	LMVSC (2nd)	1–2

Next: Sat Oct 24 at SOCA Elite · Sun Oct 25 vs Vienna Youth Soccer · Sun Nov 1 at Villarreal Virginia Academy See all 3 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 24	at	SOCA Elite (8th)	2–1	59%
·	Sun Oct 25	vs	Vienna Youth Soccer (6th)	2–1	59%
·	Sun Nov 1	at	Villarreal Virginia Academy (9th)	3–0	82%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

LMVSC

2.00

WDDLW

-0.12

-0.10

100%

2.3

W	Sun Oct 18	vs	Villarreal Virginia Academy (9th)	6–2
L	Sun Oct 4	at	Virginia United (3rd)	0–2
D	Sun Sep 27	vs	SOCA Elite (8th)	1–1
D	Sun Sep 20	at	Richmond United Red (4th)	0–0
W	Sun Sep 13	vs	Richmond United Orange (5th)	3–2
W	Sun Aug 30	at	Prince William Courage (1st)	2–1
W	Sat Aug 29	at	VSA (7th)	1–0

Next: Sun Nov 1 vs Vienna Youth Soccer See all 1 future matchup ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sun Nov 1	vs	Vienna Youth Soccer (6th)	2–1	56%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Virginia United

2.00

DWWWL

-0.14

+0.19

75%

3.5

L	Sun Oct 18	at	Prince William Courage (1st)	0–1
W	Sun Oct 4	vs	LMVSC (2nd)	2–0
W	Sun Sep 20	vs	Vienna Youth Soccer (6th)	2–1
W	Sun Sep 13	at	Villarreal Virginia Academy (9th)	2–1
D	Sun Aug 30	vs	VSA (7th)	1–1

Next: Sat Oct 24 at Richmond United Orange · Sun Oct 25 at Richmond United Red · Sat Oct 31 vs SOCA Elite See all 3 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 24	at	Richmond United Orange (5th)	1–1	32%
·	Sun Oct 25	at	Richmond United Red (4th)	0–1	27%
·	Sat Oct 31	vs	SOCA Elite (8th)	2–1	61%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Richmond United Red

1.50

DDLDW

-0.01

-0.09

59%

4.2

W	Sun Oct 18	at	VSA (7th)	2–0
D	Sun Oct 4	vs	Richmond United Orange (5th)	1–1
L	Sun Sep 27	at	Prince William Courage (1st)	1–2
D	Sun Sep 20	vs	LMVSC (2nd)	0–0
D	Sun Aug 30	vs	Vienna Youth Soccer (6th)	1–1
W	Sat Aug 29	at	Villarreal Virginia Academy (9th)	4–0

Next: Sun Oct 25 vs Virginia United · Sun Nov 1 at SOCA Elite See all 2 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sun Oct 25	vs	Virginia United (3rd)	1–0	43%
·	Sun Nov 1	at	SOCA Elite (8th)	2–1	57%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Richmond United Orange

1.33

LLDDW

+0.17

-0.85

59%

4.2

W	Sun Oct 18	vs	SOCA Elite (8th)	6–1
D	Sun Oct 4	at	Richmond United Red (4th)	1–1
D	Sun Sep 27	at	VSA (7th)	2–2
L	Sun Sep 20	vs	Prince William Courage (1st)	1–2
L	Sun Sep 13	at	LMVSC (2nd)	2–3
W	Sat Aug 29	at	Vienna Youth Soccer (6th)	2–1

Next: Sat Oct 24 vs Virginia United · Sun Oct 25 vs Villarreal Virginia Academy See all 2 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 24	vs	Virginia United (3rd)	1–1	44%
·	Sun Oct 25	vs	Villarreal Virginia Academy (9th)	4–0	90%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Vienna Youth Soccer

1.17

DWLWL

-0.20

+0.53

6.9

L	Sun Oct 4	vs	VSA (7th)	1–4
W	Sun Sep 27	vs	Villarreal Virginia Academy (9th)	3–0
L	Sun Sep 20	at	Virginia United (3rd)	1–2
W	Sun Sep 13	vs	SOCA Elite (8th)	4–2
D	Sun Aug 30	at	Richmond United Red (4th)	1–1
L	Sat Aug 29	vs	Richmond United Orange (5th)	1–2

Next: Sun Oct 25 at Prince William Courage · Sun Nov 1 at LMVSC See all 2 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sun Oct 25	at	Prince William Courage (1st)	1–2	20%
·	Sun Nov 1	at	LMVSC (2nd)	1–2	23%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

VSA

1.14

LWDWL

+0.05

-0.50

6.3

L	Sun Oct 18	vs	Richmond United Red (4th)	0–2
W	Sun Oct 4	at	Vienna Youth Soccer (6th)	4–1
D	Sun Sep 27	vs	Richmond United Orange (5th)	2–2
W	Sun Sep 20	at	Villarreal Virginia Academy (9th)	3–0
L	Sun Sep 13	vs	Prince William Courage (1st)	0–2
D	Sun Aug 30	at	Virginia United (3rd)	1–1
L	Sat Aug 29	vs	LMVSC (2nd)	0–1

Next: Sun Oct 25 at SOCA Elite See all 1 future matchup ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sun Oct 25	at	SOCA Elite (8th)	2–1	46%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

SOCA Elite

-3

1.00

WLDL

-0.19

+0.39

7.3

L	Sun Oct 18	at	Richmond United Orange (5th)	1–6
D	Sun Sep 27	at	LMVSC (2nd)	1–1
L	Sun Sep 13	at	Vienna Youth Soccer (6th)	2–4
W	Sun Aug 30	vs	Villarreal Virginia Academy (9th)	5–1

Next: Sat Oct 24 vs Prince William Courage · Sun Oct 25 vs VSA · Sat Oct 31 at Virginia United See all 4 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 24	vs	Prince William Courage (1st)	1–2	21%
·	Sun Oct 25	vs	VSA (7th)	1–2	33%
·	Sat Oct 31	at	Virginia United (3rd)	1–2	20%
·	Sun Nov 1	vs	Richmond United Red (4th)	1–2	22%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Villarreal Virginia Academy

-19

0.00

LLLLL

+0.15

+0.58

9.0

L	Sun Oct 18	at	LMVSC (2nd)	2–6
L	Sun Sep 27	at	Vienna Youth Soccer (6th)	0–3
L	Sun Sep 20	vs	VSA (7th)	0–3
L	Sun Sep 13	vs	Virginia United (3rd)	1–2
L	Sun Aug 30	at	SOCA Elite (8th)	1–5
L	Sat Aug 29	vs	Richmond United Red (4th)	0–4

Next: Sun Oct 25 at Richmond United Orange · Sun Nov 1 vs Prince William Courage See all 2 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sun Oct 25	at	Richmond United Orange (5th)	0–4	4%
·	Sun Nov 1	vs	Prince William Courage (1st)	0–3	6%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.

How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (1.65 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.