GSA

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Rabbit Hill Park, Field 2 ↗

●●●●● Very tough to win

Most likely score 0–2 (expected goals 0.9 for, 3.0 against · 0.38 expected points)

Already played this season: Sun Sep 13 0–5 at NTH NASA (L)

Common opponents: United Futbol Academy — we 0–1; they 3–3. CESA Triumph Surge — we 2–1, 1–3; they 3–0. CESA Triumph Summit — we 0–3, 4–2; they 1–0. Atlanta Fire United — we 1–2; they 1–2, 5–0. Charlotte SA Gold — we 1–0; they 4–0. South Carolina Surf — we 3–3; they 5–1.

• Respect their attack
  NTH NASA score 3.3/game — well above the league's 2.0.

  Deny the easy goals first: compact shape between the lines, no fouls in shooting range, and a plan for their best outlet. Score first and make them chase.

• Hard to break down
  NTH NASA concede only 0.7/game with 6 clean sheet(s).

  Patience and width: move the ball quickly side to side to pull the block apart, and treat set pieces as your best chance — rehearse two corner routines and a near-post free-kick delivery.

• Finishing wins the tight ones
  Held scoreless 3 time(s): 0–1 at United Futbol Academy, 0–3 at CESA Triumph Summit, 0–5 at NTH NASA.

  Against a low block, the first goal usually comes from a cross or a cut-back, not a dribble. Get 2–3 bodies in the box on every wide entry and finish practice this week at game speed.

• Underdog — play free, stay organised
  Model gives 8%; a draw (13%) would be a good result.

  Keep the shape compact, make them play in front of you, and hit space behind their full-backs on transitions. A point here is a win for the table; a win is a season-changer.

• They arrive in form
  NTH NASA have won 8 straight.

  Don't let them settle: deny the first 10 minutes of rhythm with pressure on their first pass out of the back.

• Early kickoff
  Game time 09:00 AM.

  Light breakfast 2+ hours before, longer warm-up, and a loud start — early games are won by whoever is awake at the whistle.

• What a win does
  Concorde Fire Premier sit 5th on 1.44 PPG; we are on 1.30.

  A point moves us above Concorde Fire Premier on PPG (if they don't play). GD is the next tiebreak, so every goal matters — keep attacking with a lead.

Where we'd sit after the NTH NASA game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (GSA – NTH NASA) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 6 other games that week (Mon Oct 19 – Sun Oct 25); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.

Can we move up this round? No. With a 0–2 loss we fall to at least 7th even if every rival loses, and as low as 8th if every rival wins.

1. 1st
2. 2nd <1%
3. 3rd 3%
4. 4th 5%
5. 5th 12%
6. 6th 14%
7. 7th 20%
8. 8th 24%
9. 9th 18%
10. 10th 4%
11. 11th <1%

Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.

What it takes to pass each team above us, from our 10 remaining known games (max 2.15 PPG if we win out).