CESA Triumph Summit

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Mesa Soccer Complex, Field 3 ↗

●●○○○ Lean win to win

Most likely score 2–1 (expected goals 2.8 for, 1.7 against · 2.01 expected points)

Common opponents: Concorde Fire Platinum — we 4–3; they 3–2. Concorde Fire Premier — we 3–3; they 1–3. United Futbol Academy — we 0–2, 1–3; they 2–4. GSA — we 3–0, 2–4; they 3–3. South Carolina United — we 0–0; they 4–4, 1–5. NTH NASA — we 0–1; they 1–5. Atlanta Fire United — we 0–1; they 1–3.

• They leak goals — be greedy
  South Carolina Surf concede 3.6/game; worst result 1–5 vs NTH NASA.

  Commit numbers forward, shoot early and often, and attack second balls. Goal difference is the tiebreaker on PPG, so keep playing to score for the full game — rotate players rather than pace.

• Finishing wins the tight ones
  Held scoreless 4 time(s): 0–2 vs United Futbol Academy, 0–0 vs South Carolina United, 0–1 at NTH NASA, 0–1 at Atlanta Fire United.

  Against a low block, the first goal usually comes from a cross or a cut-back, not a dribble. Get 2–3 bodies in the box on every wide entry and finish practice this week at game speed.

• Swing game — small margins
  Win 61% / draw 17% / loss 22%.

  Games like this are decided by one set piece or one transition. Prioritise the strongest XI for the full game, be disciplined with fouls near the box, and have a clear late-game plan for both "protect the lead" and "chase".

• Early kickoff
  Game time 09:00 AM.

  Light breakfast 2+ hours before, longer warm-up, and a loud start — early games are won by whoever is awake at the whistle.

• What a win does
  GSA sit 6th on 1.30 PPG; we are on 1.27.

  A point moves us above GSA on PPG (if they don't play). GD is the next tiebreak, so every goal matters — keep attacking with a lead.

Where we'd sit after the South Carolina Surf game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (CESA Triumph Summit – South Carolina Surf) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 3 other games that week (Mon Oct 26 – Sun Nov 1); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.

Can we move up this round? Yes. With a 2–1 win we finish as high as 5th if every rival drops points, and as low as 7th if every rival wins.

1. 1st
2. 2nd <1%
3. 3rd 7%
4. 4th 12%
5. 5th 19%
6. 6th 20%
7. 7th 18%
8. 8th 14%
9. 9th 8%
10. 10th 2%
11. 11th <1%

Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.

What it takes to pass each team above us, from our 9 remaining known games (max 2.05 PPG if we win out).