TableChase Clubs

Columbia Premier SC

ECNL Regional League Boys · Northwest BU15 · 12 teams · Columbia Premier Soccer Club (all teams)

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10th
0-1-6 record · 7 played
0.14 points per game
-38 goal diff · 11–49
DLLLLlast 5
0% chance of top 4 · expected finish 10.4
+0.56 schedule faced · avg opponent rating

Next game — Sat Oct 31, 01:00 PM

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Columbia Premier SC
10th · 0.14 PPG
at
Eastside FC
7th · 1.63 PPG

PRESTON PARK ATHLETIC FIELDS, Field 1 ↗ far trip

windrawloss

●●●●● Very tough to win

Most likely score 1–8 (expected goals 1.3 for, 8.1 against · 0.03 expected points)

Season so farColumbia Premier SCEastside FC
Position10th7th
Record (W-D-L)0-1-64-1-3
Points per game0.141.63
Goals for / game1.63.4
Goals against / game7.01.5
Clean sheets03
Held scoreless10
Form (recent first)L L L L DW W W L W
Biggest win—11–0 at Spokane Shadow
Worst loss0–12 at Wenatchee FA -RL B11/12 Black2–5 vs Washington Premier
Model rating (net goals vs avg)-3.65+1.63
Schedule faced (avg opp. rating)+0.56+0.46

Common opponents: Central Washington Sounders — we 2–4; they 2–2. Wenatchee FA -RL B11/12 Black — we 0–12; they 1–2, 2–0. Spokane Shadow — we 4–4; they 11–0. XF — we 2–4; they 3–1. Washington Premier — we 1–7; they 2–5. Seattle United — we 1–13; they 1–2.

Game plan

  • Finishing wins the tight ones
    Held scoreless 1 time(s): 0–12 at Wenatchee FA -RL B11/12 Black.

    Against a low block, the first goal usually comes from a cross or a cut-back, not a dribble. Get 2–3 bodies in the box on every wide entry and finish practice this week at game speed.

  • Underdog — play free, stay organised
    Model gives 1%; a draw (1%) would be a good result.

    Keep the shape compact, make them play in front of you, and hit space behind their full-backs on transitions. A point here is a win for the table; a win is a season-changer.

  • They arrive in form
    Eastside FC have won 3 straight.

    Don't let them settle: deny the first 10 minutes of rhythm with pressure on their first pass out of the back.

  • Away game
    Kickoff 01:00 PM at PRESTON PARK ATHLETIC FIELDS.

    Arrive 75 minutes early to see the surface and goal size; plan a longer dynamic warm-up after a drive. Away wins are worth the same 3 points — keep the routine identical to home.

If Saturday goes…

Where we'd sit after the Eastside FC game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (Columbia Premier SC – Eastside FC) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 7 other games that week (Mon Oct 26 – Sun Nov 1); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.

Our resultRivals don't playLikely resultsEvery rival wins
–
Loss · 0.13 PPG
11th▼ down 1 10th— holds 12th▼ down 2
Win
0.50 PPG
10th— holds 10th— holds 10th— holds
Draw
0.25 PPG
10th— holds 10th— holds 12th▼ down 2
Loss
0.13 PPG
10th— holds 10th— holds 12th▼ down 2

Can we move up this round? No. With a 1–8 loss we stay 10th even if every rival loses, and as low as 12th if every rival wins.

Where we finish

2,000 simulated seasons

0% finish 1st
0% top 4
100% below the top 4
10.4 average finish
  1. 1st
  2. 2nd
  3. 3rd
  4. 4th
  5. 5th
  6. 6th
  7. 7th
  8. 8th
  9. 9th 1%
  10. 10th 61%
  11. 11th 31%
  12. 12th 7%

Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.

Climbing the table

What it takes to pass each team above us, from our 15 remaining known games (max 2.09 PPG if we win out).

#TeamPPGProj.To pass them
1 Seattle United 2.75 (+2.61) 1st (2.44) 60 of 45 pts to pass their current pace, 53 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule
2 Washington Premier 2.33 (+2.19) 2nd (2.10) 51 of 45 pts to pass their current pace, 46 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule
3 Northwest United 2.14 (+2.00) 4th (1.96) 47 of 45 pts to pass their current pace, 43 for their projection
4 Whatcom FC Rangers 2.00 (+1.86) 3rd (2.01) 43 of 45 pts to pass their current pace, 44 for their projection
5 PacNW SC 1.86 (+1.72) 7th (1.60) 40 of 45 pts to pass their current pace, 35 for their projection
6 Central Washington Sounders 1.75 (+1.61) 8th (1.52) 38 of 45 pts to pass their current pace, 33 for their projection
7 Eastside FC 1.63 (+1.49) 6th (1.85) 35 of 45 pts to pass their current pace, 40 for their projection
8 Wenatchee FA -RL B11/12 Black 1.44 (+1.30) 5th (1.86) 31 of 45 pts to pass their current pace, 40 for their projection
9 XF 0.67 (+0.53) 9th (0.98) 14 of 45 pts to pass their current pace, 21 for their projection

How the results connect

36 chains · 9 teams

Paths of results that link Columbia Premier SC to Eastside FC through teams both have faced, drawn as one map. Teams sit in columns by how many games away from us they are. Each arrow is one game, pointing away from us, and its colour is the result for the team it starts from. Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain and see its net goal margin.

0 favour us
36 favour them
-7.4 goals per chain on average. The results point their way.
won lost drew· result for the team the arrow starts from
2–4 2–2 1–7 5–2 2–4 1–3 1–13 2–1 4–4 0–11 0–12 2–1 0–2 1–5 1–2 1–0 0–5 1–3 2–0 Columbia Premier SC 10th Central Washington … 6th Washington Premier 2nd XF 9th Seattle United 1st Spokane Shadow 11th Wenatchee FA -RL B1… 8th Northwest United 3rd Eastside FC 7th

Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain, or step through them with the arrows. Open full screen and turn your phone to see the whole map.

12 chains

Position over the season

11 game days

1st 6th 12th Sep 11 Sep 13 Sep 20 Sep 27 Oct 10 Oct 18

The table re-sorted after each date on which a game was played. Shaded band is the top 4.

The path

run-in difficulty +0.17 · 4th hardest of 12

DateOpponentWhereDifficultyWinLikelyExp. ptsRun. PPGPriority
Sat Oct 31
01:00 PM
Eastside FC
7th · 4-1-3 · GD +15
Away far trip
PRESTON PARK ATHLETIC FIELDS
●●●●● Very tough
1%
1–8 0.03 0.13 Upside
Sun Nov 1
10:00 AM
Spokane Shadow
11th · 0-1-7 · GD -44
Away far trip
Spokane Shadow Polo Fields
●●●○○ Toss-up
53%
3–2 1.74 0.31 Swing game
Sat Nov 7
11:00 AM
PacNW SC
5th · 4-1-2 · GD +5
Home
Harmony Sports Complex
●●●●● Very tough
6%
1–4 0.27 0.30 Upside
Sun Nov 8
03:00 PM
Whatcom FC Rangers
4th · 5-1-2 · GD +32
Home
Harmony Sports Complex
●●●●● Very tough
1%
1–8 0.03 0.28 Upside
Sat Nov 14
01:00 PM
Wenatchee FA -RL B11/12 Black
8th · 4-1-4 · GD +19
Home
Harmony Sports Complex
●●●●● Very tough
1%
1–6 0.07 0.26 Upside
Sun Nov 15
01:00 PM
Valor Soccer
12th · 0-0-6 · GD -52
Home
Harmony Sports Complex
●○○○○ Favorable
79%
5–2 2.46 0.43 Bank it
Sun Dec 6
03:00 PM
Washington Premier
2nd · 4-2-0 · GD +15
Away far trip
WPFC Field Complex
●●●●● Very tough
1%
1–7 0.03 0.40 Upside
Sun Dec 13
TBD
XF
9th · 1-1-4 · GD -10
Away
●●●●● Very tough
15%
1–3 0.59 0.41 Upside
Sun Jan 10
11:00 AM
Northwest United
3rd · 5-0-2 · GD +21
Home
Harmony Sports Complex
●●●●● Very tough
1%
1–6 0.06 0.39 Upside
Sat Jan 16
TBD
Whatcom FC Rangers
4th · 5-1-2 · GD +32
Away
●●●●● Very tough
0%
1–9 0.01 0.37 Upside
Sun Jan 17
10:30 AM
Seattle United
1st · 7-1-0 · GD +28
Away far trip
TBD
●●●●● Very tough
0%
1–9 0.01 0.35 Upside
Sat Jan 23
01:00 PM
Eastside FC
7th · 4-1-3 · GD +15
Home
Harmony Sports Complex
●●●●● Very tough
2%
1–7 0.07 0.34 Upside
Sun Jan 31
TBD
Central Washington Sounders
6th · 4-2-2 · GD +9
Home
●●●●● Very tough
5%
1–4 0.23 0.33 Upside
Sat Feb 20
TBD
Valor Soccer
12th · 0-0-6 · GD -52
Away
●●○○○ Lean win
68%
4–2 2.16 0.42 Swing game
Sun Feb 21
TBD
PacNW SC
5th · 4-1-2 · GD +5
Away
●●●●● Very tough
3%
1–5 0.15 0.41 Upside

"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.

Standings

#TeamGPWDLGFGAGDPtsPPGFormSoSRun-inTop 4Exp. finish
1 Seattle United 8710 368+28 222.75 DWWWW -0.30 -0.34 100% 1.3
2 Washington Premier 6420 216+15 142.33 WDWWD +0.05 -0.29 83% 3.1
3 Northwest United 7502 265+21 152.14 WWLWW -1.34 +0.32 60% 4.1
4 Whatcom FC Rangers 8512 419+32 162.00 LWDWW -1.27 +0.23 75% 3.5
5 PacNW SC 7412 1611+5 131.86 WDWWL -0.00 -0.09 4% 6.9
6 Central Washington Sounders 8422 1910+9 141.75 WLDLW -0.61 +0.26 3% 7.3
7 Eastside FC 8413 2712+15 131.63 WLWWW +0.46 -0.60 39% 4.9
8 Wenatchee FA -RL B11/12 Black 9414 2910+19 131.44 LLLLD +0.46 -0.61 38% 4.9
9 XF 6114 515-10 40.67 LWDLL +0.89 -0.36 0% 9.0
10 Columbia Premier SC 7016 1149-38 10.14 DLLLL +0.56 +0.17 0% 10.4
11 Spokane Shadow 8017 549-44 10.13 DLLLL +0.72 +0.06 0% 10.9
12 Valor Soccer 6006 153-52 00.00 LLLLL +1.87 -0.15 0% 11.6

Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.

How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (2.59 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.