Match Fit Surf
ECNL Regional League Boys · North Atlantic BU15 · 14 teams · Match Fit Surf (all teams)
Next game — Sun Mar 7, 12:00 PM
●●●●○ Tough to win
Most likely score 2–2 (expected goals 2.4 for, 2.7 against · 1.24 expected points)
| Season so far | Match Fit Surf | PDA |
|---|---|---|
| Position | 5th | 6th |
| Record (W-D-L) | 0-0-0 | 0-0-0 |
| Points per game | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Goals for / game | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| Goals against / game | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| Clean sheets | 0 | 0 |
| Held scoreless | 0 | 0 |
| Form (recent first) | — | — |
| Biggest win | — | — |
| Worst loss | — | — |
| Model rating (net goals vs avg) | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Schedule faced (avg opp. rating) | +0.00 | +0.00 |
Game plan
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They struggle to score
PDA average 0.0 goals/game (league avg 2.5); blanked in 0 of 0.A higher defensive line and an aggressive counter-press are low-risk here. Keep the back line connected to midfield so one long ball doesn't turn into a 1v1 — that is the only way this opponent scores.
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Underdog — play free, stay organised
Model gives 35%; a draw (18%) would be a good result.Keep the shape compact, make them play in front of you, and hit space behind their full-backs on transitions. A point here is a win for the table; a win is a season-changer.
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Away game
Kickoff 12:00 PM at PDA Soccer Complex.Arrive 75 minutes early to see the surface and goal size; plan a longer dynamic warm-up after a drive. Away wins are worth the same 3 points — keep the routine identical to home.
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What a win does
Maryland United FC sit 4th on 0.00 PPG; we are on 0.00.A point moves us above Maryland United FC on PPG (if they don't play). GD is the next tiebreak, so every goal matters — keep attacking with a lead.
If Sunday goes…
Where we'd sit after the PDA game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (Match Fit Surf – PDA) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 6 other games that week (Mon Mar 1 – Sun Mar 7); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.
| Our result | Rivals don't play | Likely results | Every rival wins |
|---|---|---|---|
| – Draw · 1.00 PPG |
1st▲ up 4 | 6th▼ down 1 | 11th▼ down 6 |
| Win 3.00 PPG |
1st▲ up 4 | 1st▲ up 4 | 6th▼ down 1 |
| Draw 1.00 PPG |
1st▲ up 4 | 11th▼ down 6 | 11th▼ down 6 |
| Loss 0.00 PPG |
14th▼ down 9 | 14th▼ down 9 | 14th▼ down 9 |
Can we move up this round? Yes. With a 2–2 draw we finish as high as 1st if every rival drops points, and as low as 11th if every rival wins.
Where we finish
2,000 simulated seasons
- 1st 7%
- 2nd 7%
- 3rd 8%
- 4th 7%
- 5th 8%
- 6th 7%
- 7th 7%
- 8th 8%
- 9th 8%
- 10th 7%
- 11th 7%
- 12th 7%
- 13th 6%
- 14th 6%
Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.
Climbing the table
What it takes to pass each team above us, from our 13 remaining known games (max 3.00 PPG if we win out).
| # | Team | PPG | Proj. | To pass them |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Baltimore Celtic | 0.00 (+0.00) | 6th (1.42) | Already ahead |
| 2 | Delaware FC | 0.00 (+0.00) | 13th (1.37) | Already ahead |
| 3 | FC DELCO | 0.00 (+0.00) | 1st (1.45) | Already ahead |
| 4 | Maryland United FC | 0.00 (+0.00) | 2nd (1.45) | Already ahead |
The path
run-in difficulty +0.00 · 5th hardest of 14
| Date | Opponent | Where | Difficulty | Win | Likely | Exp. pts | Run. PPG | Priority |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sun Mar 7 12:00 PM |
PDA 6th · 0-0-0 · GD +0 |
Away PDA Soccer Complex |
●●●●○ Tough | 35% |
2–2 | 1.24 | 1.24 | Upside |
| Sun Mar 14 TBD |
World Class FC 14th · 0-0-0 · GD +0 |
Home |
●●●○○ Toss-up | 47% |
2–2 | 1.58 | 1.41 | Swing game |
| Sat Apr 10 TBD |
PSA Monmouth 11th · 0-0-0 · GD +0 |
Home |
●●●○○ Toss-up | 47% |
2–2 | 1.58 | 1.47 | Swing game |
| Sun Apr 11 TBD |
STA 13th · 0-0-0 · GD +0 |
Away |
●●●●○ Tough | 35% |
2–2 | 1.24 | 1.41 | Upside |
| Sat Apr 17 TBD |
Penn Fusion Soccer Academy 7th · 0-0-0 · GD +0 |
Home |
●●●○○ Toss-up | 47% |
2–2 | 1.58 | 1.44 | Swing game |
| Sun Apr 18 12:00 PM |
SJEB FC 12th · 0-0-0 · GD +0 |
Away Tuckahoe Farm |
●●●●○ Tough | 35% |
2–2 | 1.24 | 1.41 | Upside |
| Sat Apr 24 TBD |
Pipeline SC 9th · 0-0-0 · GD +0 |
Away |
●●●●○ Tough | 35% |
2–2 | 1.24 | 1.39 | Upside |
| Sun Apr 25 TBD |
Maryland United FC 4th · 0-0-0 · GD +0 |
Away |
●●●●○ Tough | 35% |
2–2 | 1.24 | 1.37 | Upside |
| Sun May 2 TBD |
FC DELCO 3rd · 0-0-0 · GD +0 |
Home |
●●●○○ Toss-up | 47% |
2–2 | 1.58 | 1.39 | Swing game |
| Sun May 9 TBD |
Delaware FC 2nd · 0-0-0 · GD +0 |
Home |
●●●○○ Toss-up | 47% |
2–2 | 1.58 | 1.41 | Swing game |
| Sat May 15 TBD |
Potomac Soccer Association 10th · 0-0-0 · GD +0 |
Home |
●●●○○ Toss-up | 47% |
2–2 | 1.58 | 1.42 | Swing game |
| Sun May 16 TBD |
Baltimore Celtic 1st · 0-0-0 · GD +0 |
Home |
●●●○○ Toss-up | 47% |
2–2 | 1.58 | 1.44 | Swing game |
| Sun May 23 12:45 PM |
Philadelphia Ukrainian Nationals 8th · 0-0-0 · GD +0 |
Away Ukrainian AMerican Sports Center |
●●●●○ Tough | 35% |
2–2 | 1.24 | 1.42 | Upside |
"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.
Standings
| # | Team | GP | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | PPG | Form | SoS | Run-in | Top 4 | Exp. finish | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| 1 | Baltimore Celtic | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | +0 | 0 | 0.00 | — | +0.00 | — | — | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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No games played yet. Next: Sat Dec 19 vs PSA Monmouth · Sun Feb 28 vs Maryland United FC · Sun Mar 7 at FC DELCO See all 13 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 2 | Delaware FC | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | +0 | 0 | 0.00 | — | +0.00 | — | — | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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No games played yet. Next: Sat Dec 19 at Maryland United FC · Sun Mar 14 at Baltimore Celtic · Sat Mar 27 at Penn Fusion Soccer Academy See all 13 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 3 | FC DELCO | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | +0 | 0 | 0.00 | — | +0.00 | — | — | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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No games played yet. Next: Sat Dec 19 vs World Class FC · Sun Mar 7 vs Baltimore Celtic · Sun Mar 14 vs Philadelphia Ukrainian Nationals See all 13 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 4 | Maryland United FC | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | +0 | 0 | 0.00 | — | +0.00 | — | — | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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No games played yet. Next: Sat Dec 19 vs Delaware FC · Sun Feb 28 at Baltimore Celtic · Sun Mar 7 at Philadelphia Ukrainian Nationals See all 13 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 5 | Match Fit Surf | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | +0 | 0 | 0.00 | — | +0.00 | — | — | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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No games played yet. Next: Sun Mar 7 at PDA · Sun Mar 14 vs World Class FC · Sat Apr 10 vs PSA Monmouth See all 13 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 6 | PDA | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | +0 | 0 | 0.00 | — | +0.00 | — | — | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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No games played yet. Next: Sat Dec 19 vs Pipeline SC · Sun Feb 28 vs World Class FC · Sun Mar 7 vs Match Fit Surf See all 13 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 7 | Penn Fusion Soccer Academy | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | +0 | 0 | 0.00 | — | +0.00 | — | — | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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No games played yet. Next: Sun Dec 13 at STA · Sun Feb 28 at SJEB FC · Sun Mar 7 vs PSA Monmouth See all 13 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 8 | Philadelphia Ukrainian Nationals | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | +0 | 0 | 0.00 | — | +0.00 | — | — | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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No games played yet. Next: Sun Dec 13 vs SJEB FC · Sun Feb 28 at PSA Monmouth · Sun Mar 7 vs Maryland United FC See all 13 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 9 | Pipeline SC | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | +0 | 0 | 0.00 | — | +0.00 | — | — | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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No games played yet. Next: Sat Dec 19 at PDA · Sun Mar 7 vs STA · Sun Mar 14 vs SJEB FC See all 13 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 10 | Potomac Soccer Association | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | +0 | 0 | 0.00 | — | +0.00 | — | — | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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No games played yet. Next: Sat Mar 6 vs STA · Sun Mar 7 vs SJEB FC · Sun Mar 14 vs PSA Monmouth See all 13 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 11 | PSA Monmouth | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | +0 | 0 | 0.00 | — | +0.00 | — | — | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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No games played yet. Next: Sat Dec 19 at Baltimore Celtic · Sun Feb 28 vs Philadelphia Ukrainian Nationals · Sun Mar 7 at Penn Fusion Soccer Academy See all 13 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 12 | SJEB FC | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | +0 | 0 | 0.00 | — | +0.00 | — | — | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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No games played yet. Next: Sun Dec 13 at Philadelphia Ukrainian Nationals · Sun Feb 28 vs Penn Fusion Soccer Academy · Sun Mar 7 at Potomac Soccer Association See all 13 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 13 | STA | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | +0 | 0 | 0.00 | — | +0.00 | — | — | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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No games played yet. Next: Sun Dec 13 vs Penn Fusion Soccer Academy · Sat Mar 6 at Potomac Soccer Association · Sun Mar 7 at Pipeline SC See all 13 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 14 | World Class FC | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | +0 | 0 | 0.00 | — | +0.00 | — | — | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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No games played yet. Next: Sat Dec 19 at FC DELCO · Sun Feb 28 at PDA · Sun Mar 14 at Match Fit Surf See all 13 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.
How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (2.50 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.