Utah Avalanche

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St. Joseph Catholic High School, Grass Field ↗ · grass

●●●●● Very tough to win

Most likely score 1–2 (expected goals 1.4 for, 2.9 against · 0.63 expected points)

Already played this season: Sat Sep 12 2–3 at Utah Athletic (L)

Common opponents: NUU Avalanche — we 1–1; they 8–0. Arizona Arsenal — we 3–0, 1–3; they 7–3, 7–0. CCV STARS — we 4–0, 2–0; they 3–1, 1–0. La Roca FC — we 1–1, 3–3; they 5–4. Arizona Soccer Club — we 3–2, 4–2; they 2–1, 5–0. Playmaker Futbol Academy -RL — we 1–3, 0–4; they 2–2, 1–0.

• Respect their attack
  Utah Athletic score 3.9/game — well above the league's 2.2.

  Deny the easy goals first: compact shape between the lines, no fouls in shooting range, and a plan for their best outlet. Score first and make them chase.

• Finishing wins the tight ones
  Held scoreless 1 time(s): 0–4 at Playmaker Futbol Academy -RL.

  Against a low block, the first goal usually comes from a cross or a cut-back, not a dribble. Get 2–3 bodies in the box on every wide entry and finish practice this week at game speed.

• Underdog — play free, stay organised
  Model gives 16%; a draw (16%) would be a good result.

  Keep the shape compact, make them play in front of you, and hit space behind their full-backs on transitions. A point here is a win for the table; a win is a season-changer.

• They arrive in form
  Utah Athletic have won 9 straight.

  Don't let them settle: deny the first 10 minutes of rhythm with pressure on their first pass out of the back.

• Grass field
  Venue listed as "Grass Field" at St. Joseph Catholic High School.

  If the team trains on turf: the ball will be slower and bounce less true. Weight passes harder, favour early crosses in the final third, and bring FG/SG cleats. Warm up on the field, not the track.

• Early kickoff
  Game time 09:00 AM.

  Light breakfast 2+ hours before, longer warm-up, and a loud start — early games are won by whoever is awake at the whistle.

• What a win does
  El Paso Locomotive B08/09 sit 4th on 1.50 PPG; we are on 1.50.

  A point moves us above El Paso Locomotive B08/09 on PPG (if they don't play). GD is the next tiebreak, so every goal matters — keep attacking with a lead.

Where we'd sit after the Utah Athletic game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (Utah Avalanche – Utah Athletic) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 4 other games that week (Mon Oct 19 – Sun Oct 25); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.

Can we move up this round? No. With a 1–2 loss we stay 5th even if every rival loses, and as low as 6th if every rival wins.

1. 1st
2. 2nd <1%
3. 3rd 3%
4. 4th 14%
5. 5th 30%
6. 6th 34%
7. 7th 17%
8. 8th 2%
9. 9th
10. 10th

Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.

What it takes to pass each team above us, from our 8 remaining known games (max 2.10 PPG if we win out).