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Playmaker Futbol Academy -RL

ECNL Regional League Boys · Mountain BU18/19 · 10 teams · Playmaker Futbol Academy (all teams)

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2nd
7-2-2 record · 11 played
2.09 points per game
+14 goal diff · 30–16
WDLWWlast 5
99% chance of top 4 · expected finish 2.6
-0.10 schedule faced · avg opponent rating

Next game — Sun Oct 25, 01:00 PM

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Playmaker Futbol Academy -RL
2nd · 2.09 PPG
at
CCV STARS
8th · 0.50 PPG

CCV Stars Peoria Sports Complex, field 1 ↗ far trip

windrawloss

●●○○○ Lean win to win

Most likely score 2–0 (expected goals 2.6 for, 0.9 against · 2.38 expected points)

Season so farPlaymaker Futbol Academy -RLCCV STARS
Position2nd8th
Record (W-D-L)7-2-21-2-7
Points per game2.090.50
Goals for / game2.70.7
Goals against / game1.52.4
Clean sheets31
Held scoreless17
Form (recent first)W W L D WL L L L L
Biggest win4–0 vs Utah Avalanche4–3 at NUU Avalanche
Worst loss2–3 vs Arizona Arsenal0–4 at Utah Avalanche
Model rating (net goals vs avg)+0.91-1.27
Schedule faced (avg opp. rating)-0.10+0.13

Already played this season: Sun Sep 27 3–0 vs CCV STARS (W)

Common opponents: NUU Avalanche — we 1–0, 1–1; they 4–3, 0–3. Utah Athletic — we 2–2, 0–1; they 1–3, 0–1. Arizona Soccer Club — we 5–3; they 2–2. La Roca FC — we 4–2, 5–3; they 0–0, 0–3. Utah Avalanche — we 3–1, 4–0; they 0–4, 0–2.

Game plan

  • They struggle to score
    CCV STARS average 0.7 goals/game (league avg 2.2); blanked in 7 of 10.

    A higher defensive line and an aggressive counter-press are low-risk here. Keep the back line connected to midfield so one long ball doesn't turn into a 1v1 — that is the only way this opponent scores.

  • Finishing wins the tight ones
    Held scoreless 1 time(s): 0–1 vs Utah Athletic.

    Against a low block, the first goal usually comes from a cross or a cut-back, not a dribble. Get 2–3 bodies in the box on every wide entry and finish practice this week at game speed.

  • Expected win — the trap is complacency
    Model gives a 74% chance; likely score 2–0.

    Treat the first 15 minutes like a final: score early, then the game manages itself. This is the ideal game to give rotation players real minutes in the second half without risking points.

  • Confidence is low on their side
    CCV STARS have lost 5 straight (form: LLLLL).

    Teams on losing runs go quiet after conceding. An early goal usually ends the contest — start fast.

  • Away game
    Kickoff 01:00 PM at CCV Stars Peoria Sports Complex.

    Arrive 75 minutes early to see the surface and goal size; plan a longer dynamic warm-up after a drive. Away wins are worth the same 3 points — keep the routine identical to home.

If Sunday goes…

Where we'd sit after the CCV STARS game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (Playmaker Futbol Academy -RL – CCV STARS) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 5 other games that week (Mon Oct 19 – Sun Oct 25); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.

Our resultRivals don't playLikely resultsEvery rival wins
–
Win · 2.17 PPG
2nd— holds 2nd— holds 2nd— holds
Win
2.17 PPG
2nd— holds 2nd— holds 2nd— holds
Draw
2.00 PPG
2nd— holds 2nd— holds 2nd— holds
Loss
1.92 PPG
2nd— holds 2nd— holds 2nd— holds

Can we move up this round? No. With a 2–0 win we stay 2nd even if every rival loses, whatever the rivals do.

Where we finish

2,000 simulated seasons

0% finish 1st
99% top 4
1% below the top 4
2.6 average finish
  1. 1st <1%
  2. 2nd 53%
  3. 3rd 38%
  4. 4th 8%
  5. 5th 1%
  6. 6th <1%
  7. 7th
  8. 8th
  9. 9th
  10. 10th

Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.

Climbing the table

What it takes to pass each team above us, from our 7 remaining known games (max 2.44 PPG if we win out).

#TeamPPGProj.To pass them
1 Utah Athletic 2.83 (+0.74) 1st (2.67) 28 of 21 pts to pass their current pace, 26 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule

How the results connect

123 chains · 7 teams

Paths of results that link Playmaker Futbol Academy -RL to CCV STARS through teams both have faced, drawn as one map. Teams sit in columns by how many games away from us they are. Each arrow is one game, pointing away from us, and its colour is the result for the team it starts from. Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain and see its net goal margin.

93 favour us
9 even
21 favour them
+2.5 goals per chain on average. The results point our way.
won lost drew· result for the team the arrow starts from
3–0 0–1 1–0 1–0 3–4 3–1 1–1 2–2 5–3 0–0 4–2 5–3 2–2 3–0 3–1 2–0 Playmaker Futbol Ac… 2nd Utah Athletic 1st NUU Avalanche 9th La Roca FC 6th Arizona Soccer Club 7th Utah Avalanche 5th CCV STARS 8th

Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain, or step through them with the arrows. Open full screen and turn your phone to see the whole map.

12 chains

Position over the season

13 game days

1st 5th 10th Aug 22 Sep 12 Sep 20 Oct 3 Oct 18

The table re-sorted after each date on which a game was played. Shaded band is the top 4.

The path

run-in difficulty -0.04 · 7th hardest of 10

DateOpponentWhereDifficultyWinLikelyExp. ptsRun. PPGPriority
Sun Oct 25
01:00 PM
CCV STARS
8th · 1-2-7 · GD -17
Away far trip
CCV Stars Peoria Sports Complex
●●○○○ Lean win
74%
2–0 2.38 2.12 Bank it
Thu Mar 11
TBD
Arizona Arsenal
3rd · 6-0-4 · GD -3
Away
●●●○○ Toss-up
58%
2–1 1.91 2.10 Swing game
Sat Mar 20
01:00 PM
El Paso Locomotive B08/09
4th · 1-0-1 · GD +5
Away far trip
Sunland Park Sports Complex Turf Field · turf
●●●●○ Tough
35%
2–2 1.24 2.04 Upside
Sun Mar 21
12:45 PM
NM Rapids SC
10th · 0-0-0 · GD +0
Away far trip
Mesa Del Sol Regional Sports Complex
●●●○○ Toss-up
52%
2–1 1.77 2.02 Swing game
Sat Apr 17
TBD
El Paso Locomotive B08/09
4th · 1-0-1 · GD +5
Home
●●●○○ Toss-up
45%
2–2 1.55 1.99 Swing game
Sun Apr 18
TBD
NM Rapids SC
10th · 0-0-0 · GD +0
Home
●●○○○ Lean win
63%
2–1 2.05 1.99 Swing game
Sat Apr 24
03:00 PM
Arizona Soccer Club
7th · 3-1-7 · GD -12
Away far trip
TBD
●●○○○ Lean win
68%
3–1 2.19 2.01 Swing game

"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.

Standings

#TeamGPWDLGFGAGDPtsPPGFormSoSRun-inTop 4Exp. finish
1 Utah Athletic 121110 4714+33 342.83 WWWWW -0.28 -0.07 100% 1.0
2 Playmaker Futbol Academy -RL 11722 3016+14 232.09 WDLWW -0.10 -0.04 99% 2.6
3 Arizona Arsenal 10604 2528-3 181.80 WWLLW +0.14 -0.05 59% 4.4
4 El Paso Locomotive B08/09 2101 83+5 31.50 WL +0.21 -0.11 91% 2.9
5 Utah Avalanche 12534 2522+3 181.50 DLWWL -0.17 +0.44 17% 5.6
6 La Roca FC 12435 2724+3 151.25 DWWLW -0.20 +0.42 4% 6.3
7 Arizona Soccer Club 11317 2133-12 100.91 DLWLL +0.05 +0.22 0% 7.8
8 CCV STARS 10127 724-17 50.50 LLLLL +0.13 +0.21 0% 9.2
9 NUU Avalanche 12129 1440-26 50.42 LDLWL +0.01 +0.55 0% 9.7
10 NM Rapids SC 0000 00+0 00.00 — +0.03 ——

Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.

How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (2.20 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.