Real Colorado Athletico
ECNL Regional League Boys · Mountain BU13 · 8 teams · Real Colorado (all teams)
Next game — Sat Oct 24, 11:15 AM
Highland Heritage Regional Park, HHRP West ↗
●●●●○ Tough to win
Most likely score 1–1 (expected goals 1.4 for, 1.7 against · 1.16 expected points)
| Season so far | Real Colorado Athletico | Colorado EDGE |
|---|---|---|
| Position | 5th | 3rd |
| Record (W-D-L) | 2-3-1 | 4-1-1 |
| Points per game | 1.50 | 2.17 |
| Goals for / game | 1.5 | 2.2 |
| Goals against / game | 1.3 | 1.2 |
| Clean sheets | 2 | 0 |
| Held scoreless | 1 | 1 |
| Form (recent first) | L D W D W | W W D L W |
| Biggest win | 2–0 vs Pride SC | 4–1 at Pride SC |
| Worst loss | 1–4 vs Arsenal Colorado | 0–1 vs Colorado Storm South |
| Model rating (net goals vs avg) | +0.06 | +0.62 |
| Schedule faced (avg opp. rating) | -0.06 | -0.05 |
Common opponents: Colorado Storm South — we 0–0; they 0–1. Pride SC — we 2–0; they 4–1. Colorado Rush — we 1–1; they 2–1. Real Colorado North National — we 4–2; they 2–1. Colorado Storm North — we 1–1; they 3–1. Arsenal Colorado — we 1–4; they 2–2.
Game plan
-
Respect their attack
Colorado EDGE score 2.2/game — well above the league's 1.5.Deny the easy goals first: compact shape between the lines, no fouls in shooting range, and a plan for their best outlet. Score first and make them chase.
-
Finishing wins the tight ones
Held scoreless 1 time(s): 0–0 at Colorado Storm South.Against a low block, the first goal usually comes from a cross or a cut-back, not a dribble. Get 2–3 bodies in the box on every wide entry and finish practice this week at game speed.
-
Underdog — play free, stay organised
Model gives 31%; a draw (23%) would be a good result.Keep the shape compact, make them play in front of you, and hit space behind their full-backs on transitions. A point here is a win for the table; a win is a season-changer.
-
What a win does
Real Colorado North National sit 4th on 1.50 PPG; we are on 1.50.A point moves us above Real Colorado North National on PPG (if they don't play). GD is the next tiebreak, so every goal matters — keep attacking with a lead.
If Saturday goes…
Where we'd sit after the Colorado EDGE game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (Real Colorado Athletico – Colorado EDGE) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 1 other games that week (Mon Oct 19 – Sun Oct 25); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.
| Our result | Rivals don't play | Likely results | Every rival wins |
|---|---|---|---|
| – Draw · 1.43 PPG |
5th— holds | 5th— holds | 5th— holds |
| Win 1.71 PPG |
4th▲ up 1 | 4th▲ up 1 | 4th▲ up 1 |
| Draw 1.43 PPG |
5th— holds | 5th— holds | 5th— holds |
| Loss 1.29 PPG |
5th— holds | 5th— holds | 5th— holds |
Can we move up this round? No. With a 1–1 draw we stay 5th even if every rival loses, whatever the rivals do.
Where we finish
2,000 simulated seasons
- 1st 1%
- 2nd 3%
- 3rd 12%
- 4th 36%
- 5th 30%
- 6th 16%
- 7th 3%
- 8th
Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.
Climbing the table
What it takes to pass each team above us, from our 16 remaining known games (max 2.59 PPG if we win out).
| # | Team | PPG | Proj. | To pass them |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Colorado Storm South | 2.33 (+0.83) | 2nd (1.97) | 43 of 48 pts to pass their current pace, 35 for their projection |
| 2 | Arsenal Colorado | 2.17 (+0.67) | 1st (2.11) | 39 of 48 pts to pass their current pace, 38 for their projection |
| 3 | Colorado EDGE | 2.17 (+0.67) | 3rd (1.87) | 39 of 48 pts to pass their current pace, 33 for their projection |
| 4 | Real Colorado North National | 1.50 (+0.00) | 5th (1.42) | A point next game |
How the results connect
30 chains · 8 teams
Paths of results that link Real Colorado Athletico to Colorado EDGE through teams both have faced, drawn as one map. Teams sit in columns by how many games away from us they are. Each arrow is one game, pointing away from us, and its colour is the result for the team it starts from. Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain and see its net goal margin.
Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain, or step through them with the arrows. Open full screen and turn your phone to see the whole map.
Step through the chains with the arrows, or tap one on the map.
Position over the season
10 game days
The table re-sorted after each date on which a game was played. Shaded band is the top 4.
The path
run-in difficulty -0.08 · 6th hardest of 8
| Date | Opponent | Where | Difficulty | Win | Likely | Exp. pts | Run. PPG | Priority |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat Oct 24 11:15 AM |
Colorado EDGE 3rd · 4-1-1 · GD +6 |
Home Highland Heritage Regional Park |
●●●●○ Tough | 31% |
1–1 | 1.16 | 1.45 | Upside |
| Sat Feb 13 11:15 AM |
Pride SC 8th · 0-0-7 · GD -21 |
Home Highland Heritage Regional Park |
●○○○○ Favorable | 84% |
2–0 | 2.64 | 1.60 | Bank it |
| Sat Feb 20 01:30 PM |
Colorado Storm South 1st · 4-2-0 · GD +5 |
Home Real Colorado Soccer Complex |
●●●●● Very tough | 25% |
0–1 | 1.05 | 1.54 | Upside |
| Sat Feb 27 01:30 PM |
Colorado EDGE 3rd · 4-1-1 · GD +6 |
Home Real Colorado Soccer Complex |
●●●●○ Tough | 31% |
1–1 | 1.16 | 1.50 | Upside |
| Sun Feb 28 TBD |
Arsenal Colorado 2nd · 4-1-1 · GD +11 |
Away |
●●●●● Very tough | 15% |
1–2 | 0.65 | 1.42 | Upside |
| Sat Mar 6 01:00 PM |
Real Colorado North National 4th · 3-0-3 · GD +2 |
Away far trip
Dry Creek Community Park |
●●●●○ Tough | 33% |
1–1 | 1.21 | 1.40 | Upside |
| Sun Mar 7 01:30 PM |
Pride SC 8th · 0-0-7 · GD -21 |
Home Highland Heritage Regional Park |
●○○○○ Favorable | 84% |
2–0 | 2.64 | 1.50 | Bank it |
| Sat Mar 13 TBD |
Colorado Rush 7th · 1-1-3 · GD -4 |
Away |
●●●○○ Toss-up | 45% |
1–1 | 1.61 | 1.51 | Swing game |
| Sat Mar 27 09:00 AM |
Colorado Storm North 6th · 1-2-3 · GD +0 |
Away far trip
Stargate Charter School |
●●●●○ Tough | 34% |
1–1 | 1.26 | 1.49 | Upside |
| Sun Apr 4 01:30 PM |
Arsenal Colorado 2nd · 4-1-1 · GD +11 |
Home Highland Heritage Regional Park |
●●●●● Very tough | 21% |
1–2 | 0.85 | 1.45 | Upside |
| Sat Apr 10 10:00 AM |
Pride SC 8th · 0-0-7 · GD -21 |
Away far trip
Pride Soccer Complex |
●○○○○ Favorable | 78% |
2–0 | 2.50 | 1.51 | Bank it |
| Sat Apr 17 04:00 PM |
Colorado Storm South 1st · 4-2-0 · GD +5 |
Away Gates South Soccer Complex |
●●●●● Very tough | 19% |
0–1 | 0.87 | 1.48 | Upside |
| Sat Apr 24 09:00 AM |
Colorado EDGE 3rd · 4-1-1 · GD +6 |
Away far trip
Long Lake Regional Park · turf |
●●●●● Very tough | 23% |
1–1 | 0.92 | 1.45 | Upside |
| Sat May 1 01:30 PM |
Real Colorado North National 4th · 3-0-3 · GD +2 |
Home Real Colorado Soccer Complex |
●●●●○ Tough | 41% |
1–1 | 1.47 | 1.45 | Upside |
| Sat May 8 01:30 PM |
Colorado Rush 7th · 1-1-3 · GD -4 |
Home Real Colorado Soccer Complex |
●●●○○ Toss-up | 54% |
1–1 | 1.85 | 1.47 | Swing game |
| Sat May 15 01:30 PM |
Colorado Storm North 6th · 1-2-3 · GD +0 |
Home Real Colorado Soccer Complex |
●●●○○ Toss-up | 42% |
1–1 | 1.51 | 1.47 | Swing game |
"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.
Standings
| # | Team | GP | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | PPG | Form | SoS | Run-in | Top 4 | Exp. finish | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Colorado Storm South | 6 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 7 | 2 | +5 | 14 | 2.33 | WWWDW | +0.02 | -0.09 | 98% | 2.2 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Oct 18 vs Colorado Rush · Sat Feb 20 at Real Colorado Athletico · Sat Feb 27 at Pride SC See all 15 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
|||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2 | Arsenal Colorado | 6 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 16 | 5 | +11 | 13 | 2.17 | LWDWW | -0.21 | -0.13 | 100% | 1.6 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 31 vs Real Colorado North National · Sat Feb 20 at Pride SC · Sat Feb 27 at Colorado Rush See all 15 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
|||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 3 | Colorado EDGE | 6 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 13 | 7 | +6 | 13 | 2.17 | WLDWW | -0.05 | -0.07 | 95% | 2.7 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 at Real Colorado Athletico · Sun Jan 31 vs Colorado Rush · Sat Feb 6 vs Real Colorado North National See all 15 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
|||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 4 | Real Colorado North National | 6 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 11 | 9 | +2 | 9 | 1.50 | WWLLL | -0.17 | +0.07 | 39% | 4.8 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 31 at Arsenal Colorado · Sat Feb 6 at Colorado EDGE · Sat Feb 20 vs Colorado Rush See all 15 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
|||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 5 | Real Colorado Athletico | 6 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 9 | 8 | +1 | 9 | 1.50 | WDWDL | -0.06 | -0.08 | 51% | 4.5 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 vs Colorado EDGE · Sat Feb 13 vs Pride SC · Sat Feb 20 vs Colorado Storm South See all 16 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
|||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 6 | Colorado Storm North | 6 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 9 | 9 | +0 | 5 | 0.83 | LLDDW | +0.03 | -0.03 | 16% | 5.5 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Oct 25 vs Colorado Rush · Sat Feb 6 vs Pride SC · Sun Feb 7 at Colorado EDGE See all 15 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
|||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 7 | Colorado Rush | 5 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 5 | 9 | -4 | 4 | 0.80 | LLDWL | -0.04 | +0.11 | 2% | 6.7 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Oct 18 at Colorado Storm South · Sun Oct 25 at Colorado Storm North · Sun Jan 31 at Colorado EDGE See all 16 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
|||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 8 | Pride SC | 7 | 0 | 0 | 7 | 1 | 22 | -21 | 0 | 0.00 | LLLLL | +0.29 | +0.28 | 0% | 8.0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Feb 6 at Colorado Storm North · Sat Feb 13 at Real Colorado Athletico · Sat Feb 20 vs Arsenal Colorado See all 15 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
|||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.
How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (1.47 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.