Arsenal Colorado

ECNL Regional League Boys · Mountain BU13 · 8 teams · Arsenal Colorado (all teams)

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2nd

4-1-1 record · 6 played

2.17 points per game

+11 goal diff · 16–5

LWDWWlast 5

100% chance of top 4 · expected finish 1.6

-0.21 schedule faced · avg opponent rating

Next game — Sat Oct 31, 10:30 AM

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Arsenal Colorado
2nd · 2.17 PPG

Real Colorado North National
4th · 1.50 PPG

Fort Collins Soccer Complex, FCSC #7 ↗

67% 17% 16%

windrawloss

●●○○○ Lean win to win

Most likely score 2–1 (expected goals 2.6 for, 1.2 against · 2.18 expected points)

Season so far	Arsenal Colorado	Real Colorado North National
Position	2nd	4th
Record (W-D-L)	4-1-1	3-0-3
Points per game	2.17	1.50
Goals for / game	2.7	1.8
Goals against / game	0.8	1.5
Clean sheets	2	2
Held scoreless	1	1
Form (recent first)	W W D W L	L L L W W
Biggest win	5–0 at Pride SC	4–0 vs Pride SC
Worst loss	0–1 vs Colorado Storm South	2–4 vs Real Colorado Athletico
Model rating (net goals vs avg)	+1.15	+0.13
Schedule faced (avg opp. rating)	-0.21	-0.17

Common opponents: Colorado Rush — we 3–0; they 3–1. Colorado Storm South — we 0–1; they 0–2. Colorado Storm North — we 2–1; they 1–0. Colorado EDGE — we 2–2; they 1–2. Pride SC — we 5–0; they 4–0. Real Colorado Athletico — we 4–1; they 2–4.

Game plan

Finishing wins the tight ones
Held scoreless 1 time(s): 0–1 vs Colorado Storm South.
Against a low block, the first goal usually comes from a cross or a cut-back, not a dribble. Get 2–3 bodies in the box on every wide entry and finish practice this week at game speed.
Swing game — small margins
Win 67% / draw 17% / loss 16%.
Games like this are decided by one set piece or one transition. Prioritise the strongest XI for the full game, be disciplined with fouls near the box, and have a clear late-game plan for both "protect the lead" and "chase".
Confidence is low on their side
Real Colorado North National have lost 3 straight (form: WWLLL).
Teams on losing runs go quiet after conceding. An early goal usually ends the contest — start fast.

If Saturday goes…

Where we'd sit after the Real Colorado North National game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (Arsenal Colorado – Real Colorado North National) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 0 other games that week (Mon Oct 26 – Sun Nov 1); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.

Our result	Rivals don't play	Likely results	Every rival wins
– Win · 2.29 PPG	2nd— holds	2nd— holds	2nd— holds
Win 2.29 PPG	2nd— holds	2nd— holds	2nd— holds
Draw 2.00 PPG	3rd▼ down 1	3rd▼ down 1	3rd▼ down 1
Loss 1.86 PPG	3rd▼ down 1	3rd▼ down 1	3rd▼ down 1

Can we move up this round? No. With a 2–1 win we stay 2nd even if every rival loses, whatever the rivals do.

Where we finish

2,000 simulated seasons

61% finish 1st

100% top 4

0% below the top 4

1.6 average finish

1st 61%
2nd 25%
3rd 12%
4th 2%
5th <1%
6th <1%
7th
8th

Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.

Climbing the table

What it takes to pass each team above us, from our 15 remaining known games (max 2.76 PPG if we win out).

#	Team	PPG	Proj.	To pass them
1	Colorado Storm South	2.33 (+0.16)	2nd (1.97)	36 of 45 pts to pass their current pace, 29 for their projection

How the results connect

30 chains · 8 teams

Paths of results that link Arsenal Colorado to Real Colorado North National through teams both have faced, drawn as one map. Teams sit in columns by how many games away from us they are. Each arrow is one game, pointing away from us, and its colour is the result for the team it starts from. Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain and see its net goal margin.

23 favour us

3 even

4 favour them

+1.5 goals per chain on average. The results point our way.

won lost drew· result for the team the arrow starts from

Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain, or step through them with the arrows. Open full screen and turn your phone to see the whole map.

12 chains

Position over the season

10 game days

The table re-sorted after each date on which a game was played. Shaded band is the top 4.

The path

run-in difficulty -0.13 · 8th hardest of 8

Date	Opponent	Where	Difficulty	Win	Likely	Exp. pts	Run. PPG	Priority
Sat Oct 31 10:30 AM	Real Colorado North National 4th · 3-0-3 · GD +2	Home Fort Collins Soccer Complex	●●○○○ Lean win	67%	2–1	2.18	2.17	Swing game
Sat Feb 20 10:00 AM	Pride SC 8th · 0-0-7 · GD -21	Away far trip Pride Soccer Complex	●○○○○ Favorable	93%	3–0	2.84	2.25	Bank it
Sat Feb 27 TBD	Colorado Rush 7th · 1-1-3 · GD -4	Away	●●○○○ Lean win	69%	2–0	2.25	2.25	Swing game
Sun Feb 28 TBD	Real Colorado Athletico 5th · 2-3-1 · GD +1	Home	●●○○○ Lean win	66%	2–1	2.17	2.24	Swing game
Sat Mar 6 09:00 AM	Colorado Storm South 1st · 4-2-0 · GD +5	Home Fort Collins Soccer Complex	●●●○○ Toss-up	43%	1–0	1.57	2.18	Swing game
Sun Mar 7 11:00 AM	Real Colorado North National 4th · 3-0-3 · GD +2	Away Dry Creek Community Park	●●●○○ Toss-up	58%	2–1	1.93	2.16	Swing game
Sat Mar 13 09:00 AM	Colorado Storm North 6th · 1-2-3 · GD +0	Home Fort Collins Soccer Complex	●●○○○ Lean win	67%	2–1	2.19	2.16	Swing game
Sat Mar 27 TBD	Colorado EDGE 3rd · 4-1-1 · GD +6	Home	●●●○○ Toss-up	55%	2–1	1.86	2.14	Swing game
Sun Apr 4 01:30 PM	Real Colorado Athletico 5th · 2-3-1 · GD +1	Away far trip Highland Heritage Regional Park	●●●○○ Toss-up	57%	2–1	1.93	2.13	Swing game
Sat Apr 10 09:00 AM	Real Colorado North National 4th · 3-0-3 · GD +2	Home Fort Collins Soccer Complex	●●○○○ Lean win	67%	2–1	2.18	2.13	Swing game
Sat Apr 17 09:00 AM	Pride SC 8th · 0-0-7 · GD -21	Home Fort Collins Soccer Complex	●○○○○ Favorable	96%	4–0	2.90	2.18	Bank it
Sat Apr 24 TBD	Colorado Rush 7th · 1-1-3 · GD -4	Home	●○○○○ Favorable	77%	2–0	2.45	2.19	Bank it
Sat May 1 04:00 PM	Colorado Storm South 1st · 4-2-0 · GD +5	Away far trip Gates South Soccer Complex	●●●●○ Tough	35%	1–1	1.37	2.15	Upside
Sat May 8 01:00 PM	Colorado Storm North 6th · 1-2-3 · GD +0	Away far trip Stargate Charter School	●●○○○ Lean win	58%	2–1	1.95	2.14	Swing game
Sat May 15 09:00 AM	Colorado EDGE 3rd · 4-1-1 · GD +6	Away far trip Long Lake Regional Park · turf	●●●○○ Toss-up	46%	1–1	1.60	2.11	Swing game

"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.

Standings

Team

Pts

PPG

Form

SoS

Run-in

Top 4

Exp. finish

Colorado Storm South

2.33

WWWDW

+0.02

-0.09

97%

2.3

W	Sun Oct 4	vs	Real Colorado North National (4th)	2–0
D	Sun Sep 27	at	Colorado Storm North (6th)	2–2
W	Sun Sep 20	at	Colorado EDGE (3rd)	1–0
W	Sat Sep 19	at	Arsenal Colorado (2nd)	1–0
W	Sat Sep 12	at	Pride SC (8th)	1–0
D	Tue Sep 8	vs	Real Colorado Athletico (5th)	0–0

Next: Sun Oct 18 vs Colorado Rush · Sat Feb 20 at Real Colorado Athletico · Sat Feb 27 at Pride SC See all 15 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sun Oct 18 (no score yet)	vs	Colorado Rush (7th)	1–0	61%
·	Sat Feb 20	at	Real Colorado Athletico (5th)	1–0	45%
·	Sat Feb 27	at	Pride SC (8th)	2–0	80%
·	Sun Feb 28	vs	Colorado Rush (7th)	1–0	61%
·	Sat Mar 6	at	Arsenal Colorado (2nd)	0–1	28%
·	Sun Mar 7	at	Colorado Storm North (6th)	1–0	45%
·	Sat Mar 13	vs	Colorado EDGE (3rd)	1–0	43%
·	Sat Apr 3	at	Colorado Rush (7th)	1–0	54%
·	Sat Apr 10	vs	Colorado Storm North (6th)	1–0	53%
·	Sat Apr 17	vs	Real Colorado Athletico (5th)	1–0	52%
·	Sun Apr 18	vs	Real Colorado North National (4th)	1–0	53%
·	Sat Apr 24	vs	Pride SC (8th)	2–0	85%
·	Sat May 1	vs	Arsenal Colorado (2nd)	1–1	34%
·	Sat May 8	at	Colorado EDGE (3rd)	1–0	36%
·	Sat May 15	at	Real Colorado North National (4th)	1–0	45%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Arsenal Colorado

+11

2.17

LWDWW

-0.21

-0.13

100%

1.6

W	Sun Oct 18	at	Real Colorado Athletico (5th)	4–1
W	Sun Oct 4	at	Pride SC (8th)	5–0
D	Sun Sep 27	vs	Colorado EDGE (3rd)	2–2
W	Sun Sep 20	vs	Colorado Storm North (6th)	2–1
L	Sat Sep 19	vs	Colorado Storm South (1st)	0–1
W	Sun Aug 30	at	Colorado Rush (7th)	3–0

Next: Sat Oct 31 vs Real Colorado North National · Sat Feb 20 at Pride SC · Sat Feb 27 at Colorado Rush See all 15 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 31	vs	Real Colorado North National (4th)	2–1	67%
·	Sat Feb 20	at	Pride SC (8th)	3–0	93%
·	Sat Feb 27	at	Colorado Rush (7th)	2–0	69%
·	Sun Feb 28	vs	Real Colorado Athletico (5th)	2–1	66%
·	Sat Mar 6	vs	Colorado Storm South (1st)	1–0	43%
·	Sun Mar 7	at	Real Colorado North National (4th)	2–1	58%
·	Sat Mar 13	vs	Colorado Storm North (6th)	2–1	67%
·	Sat Mar 27	vs	Colorado EDGE (3rd)	2–1	55%
·	Sun Apr 4	at	Real Colorado Athletico (5th)	2–1	57%
·	Sat Apr 10	vs	Real Colorado North National (4th)	2–1	67%
·	Sat Apr 17	vs	Pride SC (8th)	4–0	96%
·	Sat Apr 24	vs	Colorado Rush (7th)	2–0	77%
·	Sat May 1	at	Colorado Storm South (1st)	1–1	35%
·	Sat May 8	at	Colorado Storm North (6th)	2–1	58%
·	Sat May 15	at	Colorado EDGE (3rd)	1–1	46%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Colorado EDGE

2.17

WLDWW

-0.05

-0.07

95%

2.6

W	Sat Oct 17	vs	Real Colorado North National (4th)	2–1
W	Sun Oct 4	at	Colorado Rush (7th)	2–1
D	Sun Sep 27	at	Arsenal Colorado (2nd)	2–2
L	Sun Sep 20	vs	Colorado Storm South (1st)	0–1
W	Sat Sep 19	vs	Colorado Storm North (6th)	3–1
W	Sun Aug 30	at	Pride SC (8th)	4–1

Next: Sat Oct 24 at Real Colorado Athletico · Sun Jan 31 vs Colorado Rush · Sat Feb 6 vs Real Colorado North National See all 15 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 24	at	Real Colorado Athletico (5th)	1–1	46%
·	Sun Jan 31	vs	Colorado Rush (7th)	2–0	67%
·	Sat Feb 6	vs	Real Colorado North National (4th)	2–1	55%
·	Sun Feb 7	vs	Colorado Storm North (6th)	2–1	56%
·	Sat Feb 27	at	Real Colorado Athletico (5th)	1–1	46%
·	Sat Mar 6	at	Pride SC (8th)	3–0	88%
·	Sat Mar 13	at	Colorado Storm South (1st)	0–1	27%
·	Sat Mar 27	at	Arsenal Colorado (2nd)	1–2	24%
·	Sun Apr 4	at	Real Colorado North National (4th)	1–1	46%
·	Sat Apr 10	at	Colorado Rush (7th)	2–1	58%
·	Sat Apr 17	at	Colorado Storm North (6th)	1–1	46%
·	Sat Apr 24	vs	Real Colorado Athletico (5th)	1–1	55%
·	Sat May 1	vs	Pride SC (8th)	3–0	92%
·	Sat May 8	vs	Colorado Storm South (1st)	0–1	34%
·	Sat May 15	vs	Arsenal Colorado (2nd)	1–1	32%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Real Colorado North National

1.50

WWLLL

-0.17

+0.07

41%

4.8

L	Sat Oct 17	at	Colorado EDGE (3rd)	1–2
L	Sun Oct 4	at	Colorado Storm South (1st)	0–2
L	Sun Sep 27	vs	Real Colorado Athletico (5th)	2–4
W	Sun Sep 20	vs	Pride SC (8th)	4–0
W	Sat Sep 19	vs	Colorado Rush (7th)	3–1
W	Sat Aug 29	at	Colorado Storm North (6th)	1–0

Next: Sat Oct 31 at Arsenal Colorado · Sat Feb 6 at Colorado EDGE · Sat Feb 20 vs Colorado Rush See all 15 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 31	at	Arsenal Colorado (2nd)	1–2	16%
·	Sat Feb 6	at	Colorado EDGE (3rd)	1–2	24%
·	Sat Feb 20	vs	Colorado Rush (7th)	2–1	57%
·	Sat Feb 27	vs	Colorado Storm North (6th)	1–1	45%
·	Sat Mar 6	vs	Real Colorado Athletico (5th)	1–1	44%
·	Sun Mar 7	vs	Arsenal Colorado (2nd)	1–2	22%
·	Sat Mar 13	at	Pride SC (8th)	2–0	82%
·	Sun Apr 4	vs	Colorado EDGE (3rd)	1–1	32%
·	Sat Apr 10	at	Arsenal Colorado (2nd)	1–2	16%
·	Sat Apr 17	at	Colorado Rush (7th)	1–1	48%
·	Sun Apr 18	at	Colorado Storm South (1st)	0–1	20%
·	Sat Apr 24	at	Colorado Storm North (6th)	1–1	36%
·	Sat May 1	at	Real Colorado Athletico (5th)	1–1	35%
·	Sat May 8	vs	Pride SC (8th)	3–0	87%
·	Sat May 15	vs	Colorado Storm South (1st)	0–1	26%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Real Colorado Athletico

1.50

WDWDL

-0.06

-0.08

48%

4.6

L	Sun Oct 18	vs	Arsenal Colorado (2nd)	1–4
D	Sun Oct 4	at	Colorado Storm North (6th)	1–1
W	Sun Sep 27	at	Real Colorado North National (4th)	4–2
D	Sun Sep 20	vs	Colorado Rush (7th)	1–1
W	Sat Sep 19	vs	Pride SC (8th)	2–0
D	Tue Sep 8	at	Colorado Storm South (1st)	0–0

Next: Sat Oct 24 vs Colorado EDGE · Sat Feb 13 vs Pride SC · Sat Feb 20 vs Colorado Storm South See all 16 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 24	vs	Colorado EDGE (3rd)	1–1	31%
·	Sat Feb 13	vs	Pride SC (8th)	2–0	84%
·	Sat Feb 20	vs	Colorado Storm South (1st)	0–1	25%
·	Sat Feb 27	vs	Colorado EDGE (3rd)	1–1	31%
·	Sun Feb 28	at	Arsenal Colorado (2nd)	1–2	15%
·	Sat Mar 6	at	Real Colorado North National (4th)	1–1	33%
·	Sun Mar 7	vs	Pride SC (8th)	2–0	84%
·	Sat Mar 13	at	Colorado Rush (7th)	1–1	45%
·	Sat Mar 27	at	Colorado Storm North (6th)	1–1	34%
·	Sun Apr 4	vs	Arsenal Colorado (2nd)	1–2	21%
·	Sat Apr 10	at	Pride SC (8th)	2–0	78%
·	Sat Apr 17	at	Colorado Storm South (1st)	0–1	19%
·	Sat Apr 24	at	Colorado EDGE (3rd)	1–1	23%
·	Sat May 1	vs	Real Colorado North National (4th)	1–1	41%
·	Sat May 8	vs	Colorado Rush (7th)	1–1	54%
·	Sat May 15	vs	Colorado Storm North (6th)	1–1	42%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Colorado Storm North

0.83

LLDDW

+0.03

-0.03

17%

5.5

W	Sun Oct 18	at	Pride SC (8th)	4–0
D	Sun Oct 4	vs	Real Colorado Athletico (5th)	1–1
D	Sun Sep 27	vs	Colorado Storm South (1st)	2–2
L	Sun Sep 20	at	Arsenal Colorado (2nd)	1–2
L	Sat Sep 19	at	Colorado EDGE (3rd)	1–3
L	Sat Aug 29	vs	Real Colorado North National (4th)	0–1

Next: Sun Oct 25 vs Colorado Rush · Sat Feb 6 vs Pride SC · Sun Feb 7 at Colorado EDGE See all 15 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sun Oct 25	vs	Colorado Rush (7th)	1–1	54%
·	Sat Feb 6	vs	Pride SC (8th)	2–0	85%
·	Sun Feb 7	at	Colorado EDGE (3rd)	1–2	23%
·	Sat Feb 27	at	Real Colorado North National (4th)	1–1	33%
·	Sat Mar 6	at	Colorado Rush (7th)	1–1	45%
·	Sun Mar 7	vs	Colorado Storm South (1st)	0–1	25%
·	Sat Mar 13	at	Arsenal Colorado (2nd)	1–2	15%
·	Sat Mar 27	vs	Real Colorado Athletico (5th)	1–1	42%
·	Sun Apr 4	at	Pride SC (8th)	2–0	79%
·	Sat Apr 10	at	Colorado Storm South (1st)	0–1	19%
·	Sat Apr 17	vs	Colorado EDGE (3rd)	1–1	31%
·	Sat Apr 24	vs	Real Colorado North National (4th)	1–1	41%
·	Sat May 1	vs	Colorado Rush (7th)	1–1	54%
·	Sat May 8	vs	Arsenal Colorado (2nd)	1–2	21%
·	Sat May 15	at	Real Colorado Athletico (5th)	1–1	33%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Colorado Rush

-4

0.80

LLDWL

-0.04

+0.11

6.7

L	Sun Oct 4	vs	Colorado EDGE (3rd)	1–2
W	Sun Sep 27	at	Pride SC (8th)	2–0
D	Sun Sep 20	at	Real Colorado Athletico (5th)	1–1
L	Sat Sep 19	at	Real Colorado North National (4th)	1–3
L	Sun Aug 30	vs	Arsenal Colorado (2nd)	0–3

Next: Sun Oct 18 at Colorado Storm South · Sun Oct 25 at Colorado Storm North · Sun Jan 31 at Colorado EDGE See all 16 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sun Oct 18 (no score yet)	at	Colorado Storm South (1st)	0–1	13%
·	Sun Oct 25	at	Colorado Storm North (6th)	1–1	23%
·	Sun Jan 31	at	Colorado EDGE (3rd)	0–2	15%
·	Sat Feb 20	at	Real Colorado North National (4th)	1–2	22%
·	Sat Feb 27	vs	Arsenal Colorado (2nd)	0–2	13%
·	Sun Feb 28	at	Colorado Storm South (1st)	0–1	13%
·	Sat Mar 6	vs	Colorado Storm North (6th)	1–1	30%
·	Sat Mar 13	vs	Real Colorado Athletico (5th)	1–1	30%
·	Sat Apr 3	vs	Colorado Storm South (1st)	0–1	17%
·	Sat Apr 10	vs	Colorado EDGE (3rd)	1–2	20%
·	Sat Apr 17	vs	Real Colorado North National (4th)	1–1	29%
·	Sun Apr 18	vs	Pride SC (8th)	2–0	74%
·	Sat Apr 24	at	Arsenal Colorado (2nd)	0–2	9%
·	Sat May 1	at	Colorado Storm North (6th)	1–1	23%
·	Sat May 8	at	Real Colorado Athletico (5th)	1–1	23%
·	Sat May 15	at	Pride SC (8th)	1–0	67%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Pride SC

-21

0.00

LLLLL

+0.29

+0.28

8.0

L	Sun Oct 18	vs	Colorado Storm North (6th)	0–4
L	Sun Oct 4	vs	Arsenal Colorado (2nd)	0–5
L	Sun Sep 27	vs	Colorado Rush (7th)	0–2
L	Sun Sep 20	at	Real Colorado North National (4th)	0–4
L	Sat Sep 19	at	Real Colorado Athletico (5th)	0–2
L	Sat Sep 12	vs	Colorado Storm South (1st)	0–1
L	Sun Aug 30	vs	Colorado EDGE (3rd)	1–4

Next: Sat Feb 6 at Colorado Storm North · Sat Feb 13 at Real Colorado Athletico · Sat Feb 20 vs Arsenal Colorado See all 15 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Feb 6	at	Colorado Storm North (6th)	0–2	4%
·	Sat Feb 13	at	Real Colorado Athletico (5th)	0–2	5%
·	Sat Feb 20	vs	Arsenal Colorado (2nd)	0–3	2%
·	Sat Feb 27	vs	Colorado Storm South (1st)	0–2	4%
·	Sat Mar 6	vs	Colorado EDGE (3rd)	0–3	4%
·	Sun Mar 7	at	Real Colorado Athletico (5th)	0–2	5%
·	Sat Mar 13	vs	Real Colorado North National (4th)	0–2	6%
·	Sun Apr 4	vs	Colorado Storm North (6th)	0–2	7%
·	Sat Apr 10	vs	Real Colorado Athletico (5th)	0–2	7%
·	Sat Apr 17	at	Arsenal Colorado (2nd)	0–4	1%
·	Sun Apr 18	at	Colorado Rush (7th)	0–2	9%
·	Sat Apr 24	at	Colorado Storm South (1st)	0–2	3%
·	Sat May 1	at	Colorado EDGE (3rd)	0–3	2%
·	Sat May 8	at	Real Colorado North National (4th)	0–3	4%
·	Sat May 15	vs	Colorado Rush (7th)	0–1	12%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.

How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (1.47 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.