Mississippi Surf
ECNL Regional League Boys · Mid-America BU16 · 10 teams · Mississippi Surf (all teams)
Next game — Sat Nov 7, 01:00 PM
BankPlus Sportsplex at Ballard Park, Paul Eason Field ↗
●●●●● Very tough to win
Most likely score 0–3 (expected goals 0.4 for, 3.9 against · 0.08 expected points)
| Season so far | Mississippi Surf | Alabama FC Huntsville |
|---|---|---|
| Position | 10th | 3rd |
| Record (W-D-L) | 1-0-11 | 8-1-1 |
| Points per game | 0.25 | 2.50 |
| Goals for / game | 0.6 | 2.4 |
| Goals against / game | 3.8 | 0.5 |
| Clean sheets | 0 | 6 |
| Held scoreless | 7 | 1 |
| Form (recent first) | L L L L L | D W W L W |
| Biggest win | 2–1 at Germantown Legends | 5–0 at FC Alliance TN |
| Worst loss | 0–9 at Tennessee SC | 0–2 at Tennessee SC |
| Model rating (net goals vs avg) | -2.51 | +1.33 |
| Schedule faced (avg opp. rating) | +0.13 | -0.14 |
Already played this season: Sun Oct 11 0–3 at Alabama FC Huntsville (L)
Common opponents: Germantown Legends — we 2–1, 2–3; they 3–1. Lobos Rush — we 0–6, 1–4; they 3–0. Tennessee SC Murfreesboro — we 1–2, 0–3; they 1–0. Tennessee SC — we 0–8, 0–9; they 0–2. North Georgia Soccer Academy — we 0–1, 1–3; they 1–0, 3–1. FC Alliance TN — we 0–3; they 4–0, 5–0.
Game plan
-
Respect their attack
Alabama FC Huntsville score 2.4/game — well above the league's 1.7.Deny the easy goals first: compact shape between the lines, no fouls in shooting range, and a plan for their best outlet. Score first and make them chase.
-
Hard to break down
Alabama FC Huntsville concede only 0.5/game with 6 clean sheet(s).Patience and width: move the ball quickly side to side to pull the block apart, and treat set pieces as your best chance — rehearse two corner routines and a near-post free-kick delivery.
-
Finishing wins the tight ones
Held scoreless 7 time(s): 0–6 at Lobos Rush, 0–8 vs Tennessee SC, 0–1 at North Georgia Soccer Academy, 0–3 at FC Alliance TN, 0–9 at Tennessee SC, 0–3 at Tennessee SC Murfreesboro, 0–3 at Alabama FC Huntsville.Against a low block, the first goal usually comes from a cross or a cut-back, not a dribble. Get 2–3 bodies in the box on every wide entry and finish practice this week at game speed.
-
Underdog — play free, stay organised
Model gives 1%; a draw (4%) would be a good result.Keep the shape compact, make them play in front of you, and hit space behind their full-backs on transitions. A point here is a win for the table; a win is a season-changer.
If Saturday goes…
Where we'd sit after the Alabama FC Huntsville game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (Mississippi Surf – Alabama FC Huntsville) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 2 other games that week (Mon Nov 2 – Sun Nov 8); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.
| Our result | Rivals don't play | Likely results | Every rival wins |
|---|---|---|---|
| – Loss · 0.23 PPG |
10th— holds | 10th— holds | 10th— holds |
| Win 0.46 PPG |
10th— holds | 10th— holds | 10th— holds |
| Draw 0.31 PPG |
10th— holds | 10th— holds | 10th— holds |
| Loss 0.23 PPG |
10th— holds | 10th— holds | 10th— holds |
Can we move up this round? No. With a 0–3 loss we stay 10th even if every rival loses, whatever the rivals do.
Where we finish
2,000 simulated seasons
- 1st
- 2nd
- 3rd
- 4th
- 5th
- 6th
- 7th <1%
- 8th <1%
- 9th 1%
- 10th 99%
Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.
Climbing the table
What it takes to pass each team above us, from our 6 remaining known games (max 1.17 PPG if we win out).
| # | Team | PPG | Proj. | To pass them |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Tennessee SC | 2.60 (+2.35) | 2nd (2.51) | 44 of 18 pts to pass their current pace, 43 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule |
| 2 | Alabama FC | 2.56 (+2.31) | 1st (2.54) | 44 of 18 pts to pass their current pace, 43 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule |
| 3 | Alabama FC Huntsville | 2.50 (+2.25) | 3rd (2.34) | 42 of 18 pts to pass their current pace, 40 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule |
| 4 | Lobos Rush | 1.56 (+1.31) | 4th (1.53) | 26 of 18 pts to pass their current pace, 25 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule |
| 5 | North Georgia Soccer Academy | 1.25 (+1.00) | 5th (1.33) | 20 of 18 pts to pass their current pace, 21 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule |
| 6 | Germantown Legends | 1.00 (+0.75) | 7th (0.94) | 15 of 18 pts to pass their current pace, 14 for their projection |
| 7 | Mississippi Rush United | 0.91 (+0.66) | 6th (0.97) | 14 of 18 pts to pass their current pace, 15 for their projection |
| 8 | FC Alliance TN | 0.86 (+0.61) | 8th (0.91) | 13 of 18 pts to pass their current pace, 14 for their projection |
| 9 | Tennessee SC Murfreesboro | 0.80 (+0.55) | 9th (0.80) | 12 of 18 pts to pass their current pace, 12 for their projection |
How the results connect
59 chains · 7 teams
Paths of results that link Mississippi Surf to Alabama FC Huntsville through teams both have faced, drawn as one map. Teams sit in columns by how many games away from us they are. Each arrow is one game, pointing away from us, and its colour is the result for the team it starts from. Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain and see its net goal margin.
Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain, or step through them with the arrows. Open full screen and turn your phone to see the whole map.
Step through the chains with the arrows, or tap one on the map.
Position over the season
17 game days
The table re-sorted after each date on which a game was played. Shaded band is the top 4.
The path
run-in difficulty +0.63 · 1st hardest of 10
| Date | Opponent | Where | Difficulty | Win | Likely | Exp. pts | Run. PPG | Priority |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sun Oct 18 01:00 PM no score posted |
FC Alliance TN 8th · 2-0-5 · GD -13 |
Home BankPlus Sportsplex at Ballard Park |
●●●●● Very tough | 20% |
1–2 | 0.80 | 0.29 | Upside |
| Sat Nov 7 01:00 PM |
Alabama FC Huntsville 3rd · 8-1-1 · GD +19 |
Home BankPlus Sportsplex at Ballard Park |
●●●●● Very tough | 1% |
0–3 | 0.08 | 0.28 | Upside |
| Sun Nov 8 01:00 PM |
Alabama FC 2nd · 7-2-0 · GD +30 |
Home BankPlus Sportsplex at Ballard Park |
●●●●● Very tough | 0% |
0–6 | 0.02 | 0.26 | Upside |
| Sat Nov 21 TBD |
Mississippi Rush United 7th · 2-4-5 · GD -11 |
Home |
●●●●● Very tough | 18% |
0–1 | 0.77 | 0.29 | Upside |
| Sat Mar 20 03:00 PM |
Mississippi Rush United 7th · 2-4-5 · GD -11 |
Away far trip
Freedom Ridge Park |
●●●●● Very tough | 13% |
0–2 | 0.59 | 0.31 | Upside |
| Sat May 15 01:00 PM |
Alabama FC 2nd · 7-2-0 · GD +30 |
Away far trip
Dunnavant Valley Fields (DVF) |
●●●●● Very tough | 0% |
0–7 | 0.01 | 0.29 | Upside |
"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.
Standings
| # | Team | GP | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | PPG | Form | SoS | Run-in | Top 4 | Exp. finish | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Tennessee SC | 10 | 8 | 2 | 0 | 39 | 4 | +35 | 26 | 2.60 | DWWWD | -0.47 | +0.08 | 100% | 1.8 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 at FC Alliance TN · Sun Oct 25 at North Georgia Soccer Academy · Sun Nov 1 vs FC Alliance TN See all 8 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2 | Alabama FC | 9 | 7 | 2 | 0 | 35 | 5 | +30 | 23 | 2.56 | WWDWD | +0.02 | -0.49 | 100% | 1.6 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 31 at Lobos Rush · Sun Nov 1 at Germantown Legends · Sat Nov 7 at Mississippi Rush United See all 9 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 3 | Alabama FC Huntsville | 10 | 8 | 1 | 1 | 24 | 5 | +19 | 25 | 2.50 | WLWWD | -0.14 | -0.08 | 100% | 2.6 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 vs Mississippi Rush United · Sat Oct 31 at Germantown Legends · Sun Nov 1 at Lobos Rush See all 8 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 4 | Lobos Rush | 9 | 4 | 2 | 3 | 16 | 12 | +4 | 14 | 1.56 | DLLWW | -0.25 | +0.21 | 72% | 4.3 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 10 vs North Georgia Soccer Academy · Sun Oct 11 vs FC Alliance TN · Sat Oct 31 vs Alabama FC See all 9 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 5 | North Georgia Soccer Academy | 8 | 3 | 1 | 4 | 12 | 15 | -3 | 10 | 1.25 | LWWWD | -0.01 | -0.06 | 26% | 5.0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 3 at FC Alliance TN · Sat Oct 10 at Lobos Rush · Sun Oct 11 at Germantown Legends See all 10 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 6 | Germantown Legends | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 10 | 18 | -8 | 8 | 1.00 | WDLWL | -0.31 | +0.44 | 1% | 7.3 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 10 vs FC Alliance TN · Sun Oct 11 vs North Georgia Soccer Academy · Sun Oct 25 at Mississippi Rush United See all 10 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 7 | Mississippi Rush United | 11 | 2 | 4 | 5 | 8 | 19 | -11 | 10 | 0.91 | DLLWD | +0.20 | -0.06 | 0% | 6.9 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 at Alabama FC Huntsville · Sun Oct 25 vs Germantown Legends · Sat Nov 7 vs Alabama FC See all 7 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 8 | FC Alliance TN | 7 | 2 | 0 | 5 | 6 | 19 | -13 | 6 | 0.86 | LLWWL | +0.42 | -0.12 | 1% | 7.5 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 3 vs North Georgia Soccer Academy · Sat Oct 10 at Germantown Legends · Sun Oct 11 at Lobos Rush See all 11 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 9 | Tennessee SC Murfreesboro | 10 | 2 | 2 | 6 | 9 | 23 | -14 | 8 | 0.80 | DDWLL | +0.17 | +0.08 | 0% | 8.1 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 at North Georgia Soccer Academy · Sun Oct 25 at FC Alliance TN · Sat Oct 31 vs FC Alliance TN See all 8 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 10 | Mississippi Surf | 12 | 1 | 0 | 11 | 7 | 46 | -39 | 3 | 0.25 | LLLLL | +0.13 | +0.63 | 0% | 10.0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Oct 18 vs FC Alliance TN · Sat Nov 7 vs Alabama FC Huntsville · Sun Nov 8 vs Alabama FC See all 6 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.
How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (1.71 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.