Toca Fusion Elite

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Venue TBD

●●●○○ Toss-up to win

Most likely score 2–2 (expected goals 2.7 for, 2.4 against · 1.58 expected points)

• They struggle to score
  Union KC Soccer Club Navy average 0.0 goals/game (league avg 2.5); blanked in 0 of 0.

  A higher defensive line and an aggressive counter-press are low-risk here. Keep the back line connected to midfield so one long ball doesn't turn into a 1v1 — that is the only way this opponent scores.

• Swing game — small margins
  Win 47% / draw 18% / loss 35%.

  Games like this are decided by one set piece or one transition. Prioritise the strongest XI for the full game, be disciplined with fouls near the box, and have a clear late-game plan for both "protect the lead" and "chase".

• What a win does
  St. Louis Stars SC sit 7th on 0.00 PPG; we are on 0.00.

  A point moves us above St. Louis Stars SC on PPG (if they don't play). GD is the next tiebreak, so every goal matters — keep attacking with a lead.

Where we'd sit after the Union KC Soccer Club Navy game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (Toca Fusion Elite – Union KC Soccer Club Navy) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 4 other games that week (Mon Nov 30 – Sun Dec 6); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.

Can we move up this round? Yes. With a 2–2 draw we finish as high as 1st if every rival drops points, and as low as 8th if every rival wins.

1. 1st 11%
2. 2nd 10%
3. 3rd 10%
4. 4th 9%
5. 5th 8%
6. 6th 11%
7. 7th 11%
8. 8th 10%
9. 9th 10%
10. 10th 10%

Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.

What it takes to pass each team above us, from our 18 remaining known games (max 3.00 PPG if we win out).