Sporting Iowa Central

ECNL Regional League Boys · Heartland BU17 · 6 teams · Sporting Iowa Central (all teams)

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2nd

4-0-3 record · 7 played

1.71 points per game

+6 goal diff · 18–12

LWWLWlast 5

98% chance of top 4 · expected finish 2.9

-0.03 schedule faced · avg opponent rating

Next game — Sun Nov 1, 03:00 PM

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Sporting Iowa Central
2nd · 1.71 PPG

VSA Rush
1st · 2.75 PPG

VSA Timberline Soccer Complex, Field 2 ↗ far trip

11% 17% 72%

windrawloss

●●●●● Very tough to win

Most likely score 0–2 (expected goals 0.9 for, 2.5 against · 0.51 expected points)

Season so far	Sporting Iowa Central	VSA Rush
Position	2nd	1st
Record (W-D-L)	4-0-3	7-1-0
Points per game	1.71	2.75
Goals for / game	2.6	3.1
Goals against / game	1.7	0.3
Clean sheets	2	6
Held scoreless	1	1
Form (recent first)	W L W W L	W D W W W
Biggest win	7–0 vs Sporting Iowa Strikers	4–0 vs Sporting Nebraska FC
Worst loss	2–5 vs Sporting Nebraska FC	—
Model rating (net goals vs avg)	+0.58	+1.84
Schedule faced (avg opp. rating)	-0.03	-0.66

Already played this season: Fri Aug 28 0–2 vs VSA Rush (L)

Common opponents: Gretna Elite Academy — we 2–0, 3–1; they 4–1, 0–0. Sporting Nebraska FC — we 2–5, 1–2; they 4–0, 2–0. Sporting Iowa Strikers — we 7–0; they 4–0, 4–0. FC United Iowa — we 3–2; they 5–1.

Game plan

Respect their attack
VSA Rush score 3.1/game — well above the league's 2.2.
Deny the easy goals first: compact shape between the lines, no fouls in shooting range, and a plan for their best outlet. Score first and make them chase.
Hard to break down
VSA Rush concede only 0.2/game with 6 clean sheet(s).
Patience and width: move the ball quickly side to side to pull the block apart, and treat set pieces as your best chance — rehearse two corner routines and a near-post free-kick delivery.
Finishing wins the tight ones
Held scoreless 1 time(s): 0–2 vs VSA Rush.
Against a low block, the first goal usually comes from a cross or a cut-back, not a dribble. Get 2–3 bodies in the box on every wide entry and finish practice this week at game speed.
Underdog — play free, stay organised
Model gives 11%; a draw (17%) would be a good result.
Keep the shape compact, make them play in front of you, and hit space behind their full-backs on transitions. A point here is a win for the table; a win is a season-changer.
Away game
Kickoff 03:00 PM at VSA Timberline Soccer Complex.
Arrive 75 minutes early to see the surface and goal size; plan a longer dynamic warm-up after a drive. Away wins are worth the same 3 points — keep the routine identical to home.

If Sunday goes…

Where we'd sit after the VSA Rush game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (Sporting Iowa Central – VSA Rush) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 4 other games that week (Mon Oct 26 – Sun Nov 1); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.

Our result	Rivals don't play	Likely results	Every rival wins
– Loss · 1.50 PPG	4th▼ down 2	3rd▼ down 1	4th▼ down 2
Win 1.88 PPG	2nd— holds	2nd— holds	4th▼ down 2
Draw 1.63 PPG	3rd▼ down 1	3rd▼ down 1	4th▼ down 2
Loss 1.50 PPG	4th▼ down 2	3rd▼ down 1	4th▼ down 2

Can we move up this round? No. With a 0–2 loss we stay 2nd even if every rival loses, and as low as 4th if every rival wins.

Where we finish

2,000 simulated seasons

0% finish 1st

98% top 4

2% below the top 4

2.9 average finish

1st
2nd 37%
3rd 36%
4th 24%
5th 2%
6th

Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.

Climbing the table

What it takes to pass each team above us, from our 3 remaining known games (max 2.10 PPG if we win out).

#	Team	PPG	Proj.	To pass them
1	VSA Rush	2.75 (+1.04)	1st (2.65)	16 of 9 pts to pass their current pace, 15 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule

How the results connect

46 chains · 6 teams

Paths of results that link Sporting Iowa Central to VSA Rush through teams both have faced, drawn as one map. Teams sit in columns by how many games away from us they are. Each arrow is one game, pointing away from us, and its colour is the result for the team it starts from. Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain and see its net goal margin.

13 favour us

5 even

28 favour them

-0.8 goals per chain on average. The results point their way.

won lost drew· result for the team the arrow starts from

Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain, or step through them with the arrows. Open full screen and turn your phone to see the whole map.

12 chains

Position over the season

12 game days

The table re-sorted after each date on which a game was played. Shaded band is the top 4.

The path

run-in difficulty -0.43 · 4th hardest of 6

Date	Opponent	Where	Difficulty	Win	Likely	Exp. pts	Run. PPG	Priority
Sun Nov 1 03:00 PM	VSA Rush 1st · 7-1-0 · GD +23	Away far trip VSA Timberline Soccer Complex	●●●●● Very tough	11%	0–2	0.51	1.56	Upside
Sat Nov 7 10:00 AM	FC United Iowa 4th · 3-0-3 · GD +8	Away far trip TBK Bank Sports Complex, LLC	●●●●○ Tough	37%	2–2	1.29	1.53	Upside
Sat Nov 7 TBD	Sporting Iowa Strikers 6th · 0-0-7 · GD -41	Away	●○○○○ Favorable	94%	4–0	2.86	1.67	Bank it

"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.

Standings

Team

Pts

PPG

Form

SoS

Run-in

Top 4

Exp. finish

VSA Rush

+23

2.75

WWWDW

-0.66

+0.59

100%

1.0

W	Sun Oct 11	at	Sporting Nebraska FC (3rd)	2–0
D	Sat Oct 10	at	Gretna Elite Academy (5th)	0–0
W	Sun Oct 4	vs	FC United Iowa (4th)	5–1
W	Sat Oct 3	vs	Sporting Iowa Strikers (6th)	4–0
W	Fri Sep 18	at	Sporting Iowa Strikers (6th)	4–0
W	Fri Aug 28	at	Sporting Iowa Central (2nd)	2–0
W	Sun Aug 23	vs	Gretna Elite Academy (5th)	4–1
W	Sat Aug 22	vs	Sporting Nebraska FC (3rd)	4–0

Next: Sun Nov 1 vs Sporting Iowa Central · Sun Nov 8 at FC United Iowa See all 2 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sun Nov 1	vs	Sporting Iowa Central (2nd)	2–0	72%
·	Sun Nov 8	at	FC United Iowa (4th)	2–1	69%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Sporting Iowa Central

1.71

LWWLW

-0.03

-0.43

98%

2.9

W	Sun Oct 11	at	Gretna Elite Academy (5th)	3–1
L	Sat Oct 10	at	Sporting Nebraska FC (3rd)	1–2
W	Sat Oct 3	vs	FC United Iowa (4th)	3–2
W	Sat Sep 19	vs	Sporting Iowa Strikers (6th)	7–0
L	Fri Aug 28	vs	VSA Rush (1st)	0–2
L	Sun Aug 23	vs	Sporting Nebraska FC (3rd)	2–5
W	Sat Aug 22	vs	Gretna Elite Academy (5th)	2–0

Next: Sun Nov 1 at VSA Rush · Sat Nov 7 at FC United Iowa · Sat Nov 7 at Sporting Iowa Strikers See all 3 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sun Nov 1	at	VSA Rush (1st)	0–2	11%
·	Sat Nov 7	at	FC United Iowa (4th)	2–2	37%
·	Sat Nov 7	at	Sporting Iowa Strikers (6th)	4–0	94%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Sporting Nebraska FC

1.71

WLWLW

+0.29

-0.90

95%

2.9

W	Sat Oct 17	vs	Gretna Elite Academy (5th)	1–0
L	Sun Oct 11	vs	VSA Rush (1st)	0–2
W	Sat Oct 10	vs	Sporting Iowa Central (2nd)	2–1
L	Sun Sep 27	at	FC United Iowa (4th)	2–3
W	Sat Sep 26	at	Sporting Iowa Strikers (6th)	4–1
W	Sun Aug 23	at	Sporting Iowa Central (2nd)	5–2
L	Sat Aug 22	at	VSA Rush (1st)	0–4

Next: Sat Oct 31 vs FC United Iowa · Sun Nov 1 vs Sporting Iowa Strikers · Sat Nov 7 at Gretna Elite Academy See all 3 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 31	vs	FC United Iowa (4th)	2–2	40%
·	Sun Nov 1	vs	Sporting Iowa Strikers (6th)	4–0	94%
·	Sat Nov 7	at	Gretna Elite Academy (5th)	1–2	31%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

FC United Iowa

1.50

LWLLW

-0.65

+0.76

59%

3.9

W	Sat Oct 10	vs	Sporting Iowa Strikers (6th)	6–0
L	Sun Oct 4	at	VSA Rush (1st)	1–5
L	Sat Oct 3	at	Sporting Iowa Central (2nd)	2–3
W	Sun Sep 27	vs	Sporting Nebraska FC (3rd)	3–2
L	Sat Sep 26	vs	Gretna Elite Academy (5th)	1–3
W	Sat Aug 22	at	Sporting Iowa Strikers (6th)	8–0

Next: Sat Oct 31 at Sporting Nebraska FC · Sun Nov 1 at Gretna Elite Academy · Sat Nov 7 vs Sporting Iowa Central See all 4 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 31	at	Sporting Nebraska FC (3rd)	2–2	41%
·	Sun Nov 1	at	Gretna Elite Academy (5th)	2–2	36%
·	Sat Nov 7	vs	Sporting Iowa Central (2nd)	2–2	45%
·	Sun Nov 8	vs	VSA Rush (1st)	1–2	15%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Gretna Elite Academy

1.00

WWDLL

+0.24

-0.97

48%

4.3

L	Sat Oct 17	at	Sporting Nebraska FC (3rd)	0–1
L	Sun Oct 11	vs	Sporting Iowa Central (2nd)	1–3
D	Sat Oct 10	vs	VSA Rush (1st)	0–0
W	Sun Sep 27	at	Sporting Iowa Strikers (6th)	10–1
W	Sat Sep 26	at	FC United Iowa (4th)	3–1
L	Sun Aug 23	at	VSA Rush (1st)	1–4
L	Sat Aug 22	at	Sporting Iowa Central (2nd)	0–2

Next: Sat Oct 31 vs Sporting Iowa Strikers · Sun Nov 1 vs FC United Iowa · Sat Nov 7 vs Sporting Nebraska FC See all 3 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 31	vs	Sporting Iowa Strikers (6th)	5–0	96%
·	Sun Nov 1	vs	FC United Iowa (4th)	2–2	45%
·	Sat Nov 7	vs	Sporting Nebraska FC (3rd)	2–1	48%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Sporting Iowa Strikers

-41

0.00

LLLLL

+0.87

+0.41

6.0

L	Sat Oct 10	at	FC United Iowa (4th)	0–6
L	Sat Oct 3	at	VSA Rush (1st)	0–4
L	Sun Sep 27	vs	Gretna Elite Academy (5th)	1–10
L	Sat Sep 26	vs	Sporting Nebraska FC (3rd)	1–4
L	Sat Sep 19	at	Sporting Iowa Central (2nd)	0–7
L	Fri Sep 18	vs	VSA Rush (1st)	0–4
L	Sat Aug 22	vs	FC United Iowa (4th)	0–8

Next: Sat Oct 31 at Gretna Elite Academy · Sun Nov 1 at Sporting Nebraska FC · Sat Nov 7 vs Sporting Iowa Central See all 3 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 31	at	Gretna Elite Academy (5th)	0–5	1%
·	Sun Nov 1	at	Sporting Nebraska FC (3rd)	0–4	2%
·	Sat Nov 7	vs	Sporting Iowa Central (2nd)	0–4	2%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.

How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (2.18 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.