TableChase Clubs

Gretna Elite Academy

ECNL Regional League Boys · Heartland BU17 · 6 teams · Gretna Elite Academy (all teams)

Scores refresh automatically every 2 hours · last pulled 8 hours ago.
Add schedule to calendar
5th
2-1-4 record · 7 played
1.00 points per game
+3 goal diff · 15–12
WWDLLlast 5
48% chance of top 4 · expected finish 4.3
+0.24 schedule faced · avg opponent rating

Next game — Sat Oct 31, 02:00 PM

Open the match preview →

Gretna Elite Academy
5th · 1.00 PPG
vs
Sporting Iowa Strikers
6th · 0.00 PPG

Pinnacle Bank Soccer Complex ( Gretna Soccer Compl, Field 1 ↗

windrawloss

●○○○○ Favorable to win

Most likely score 5–0 (expected goals 5.2 for, 0.7 against · 2.90 expected points)

Season so farGretna Elite AcademySporting Iowa Strikers
Position5th6th
Record (W-D-L)2-1-40-0-7
Points per game1.000.00
Goals for / game2.10.3
Goals against / game1.76.1
Clean sheets10
Held scoreless35
Form (recent first)L L D W WL L L L L
Biggest win10–1 at Sporting Iowa Strikers—
Worst loss1–4 at VSA Rush1–10 vs Gretna Elite Academy
Model rating (net goals vs avg)+0.43-3.72
Schedule faced (avg opp. rating)+0.24+0.87

Already played this season: Sun Sep 27 10–1 at Sporting Iowa Strikers (W)

Common opponents: Sporting Iowa Central — we 0–2, 1–3; they 0–7. VSA Rush — we 1–4, 0–0; they 0–4, 0–4. FC United Iowa — we 3–1; they 0–8, 0–6. Sporting Nebraska FC — we 0–1; they 1–4.

Game plan

  • They struggle to score
    Sporting Iowa Strikers average 0.3 goals/game (league avg 2.2); blanked in 5 of 7.

    A higher defensive line and an aggressive counter-press are low-risk here. Keep the back line connected to midfield so one long ball doesn't turn into a 1v1 — that is the only way this opponent scores.

  • They leak goals — be greedy
    Sporting Iowa Strikers concede 6.1/game; worst result 1–10 vs Gretna Elite Academy.

    Commit numbers forward, shoot early and often, and attack second balls. Goal difference is the tiebreaker on PPG, so keep playing to score for the full game — rotate players rather than pace.

  • Finishing wins the tight ones
    Held scoreless 3 time(s): 0–2 at Sporting Iowa Central, 0–0 vs VSA Rush, 0–1 at Sporting Nebraska FC.

    Against a low block, the first goal usually comes from a cross or a cut-back, not a dribble. Get 2–3 bodies in the box on every wide entry and finish practice this week at game speed.

  • Expected win — the trap is complacency
    Model gives a 96% chance; likely score 5–0.

    Treat the first 15 minutes like a final: score early, then the game manages itself. This is the ideal game to give rotation players real minutes in the second half without risking points.

  • Confidence is low on their side
    Sporting Iowa Strikers have lost 7 straight (form: LLLLL).

    Teams on losing runs go quiet after conceding. An early goal usually ends the contest — start fast.

If Saturday goes…

Where we'd sit after the Sporting Iowa Strikers game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (Gretna Elite Academy – Sporting Iowa Strikers) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 3 other games that week (Mon Oct 26 – Sun Nov 1); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.

Our resultRivals don't playLikely resultsEvery rival wins
–
Win · 1.25 PPG		 5th— holds 5th— holds 5th— holds
Win
1.25 PPG		 5th— holds 5th— holds 5th— holds
Draw
1.00 PPG		 5th— holds 5th— holds 5th— holds
Loss
0.88 PPG		 5th— holds 5th— holds 5th— holds

Can we move up this round? No. With a 5–0 win we stay 5th even if every rival loses, whatever the rivals do.

Where we finish

2,000 simulated seasons

0% finish 1st
48% top 4
52% below the top 4
4.3 average finish
  1. 1st
  2. 2nd 5%
  3. 3rd 12%
  4. 4th 30%
  5. 5th 52%
  6. 6th

Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.

Climbing the table

What it takes to pass each team above us, from our 3 remaining known games (max 1.60 PPG if we win out).

#TeamPPGProj.To pass them
1 VSA Rush 2.75 (+1.75) 1st (2.65) 21 of 9 pts to pass their current pace, 20 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule
2 Sporting Iowa Central 1.71 (+0.71) 3rd (1.67) 11 of 9 pts to pass their current pace, 10 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule
3 Sporting Nebraska FC 1.71 (+0.71) 2nd (1.74) 11 of 9 pts to pass their current pace, 11 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule
4 FC United Iowa 1.50 (+0.50) 4th (1.38) 8 of 9 pts to pass their current pace, 7 for their projection

How the results connect

44 chains · 6 teams

Paths of results that link Gretna Elite Academy to Sporting Iowa Strikers through teams both have faced, drawn as one map. Teams sit in columns by how many games away from us they are. Each arrow is one game, pointing away from us, and its colour is the result for the team it starts from. Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain and see its net goal margin.

34 favour us
6 even
4 favour them
+4.2 goals per chain on average. The results point our way.
won lost drew· result for the team the arrow starts from
10–1 1–4 4–0 4–0 0–1 4–1 0–0 1–3 7–0 0–2 3–1 6–0 8–0 0–2 Gretna Elite Academy 5th VSA Rush 1st Sporting Nebraska FC 3rd Sporting Iowa Centr… 2nd FC United Iowa 4th Sporting Iowa Strik… 6th

Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain, or step through them with the arrows. Open full screen and turn your phone to see the whole map.

12 chains

Position over the season

12 game days

1st 3rd 6th Aug 22 Aug 28 Sep 19 Sep 27 Oct 4 Oct 11 Oct 17

The table re-sorted after each date on which a game was played. Shaded band is the top 4.

The path

run-in difficulty -0.97 · 6th hardest of 6

DateOpponentWhereDifficultyWinLikelyExp. ptsRun. PPGPriority
Sat Oct 31
02:00 PM		 Sporting Iowa Strikers
6th · 0-0-7 · GD -41		 Home
Pinnacle Bank Soccer Complex ( Gretna Soccer Compl		 ●○○○○ Favorable
96%		 5–0 2.90 1.24 Bank it
Sun Nov 1
01:00 PM		 FC United Iowa
4th · 3-0-3 · GD +8		 Home
Pinnacle Bank Soccer Complex ( Gretna Soccer Compl		 ●●●○○ Toss-up
45%		 2–2 1.55 1.27 Swing game
Sat Nov 7
02:00 PM		 Sporting Nebraska FC
3rd · 4-0-3 · GD +1		 Home
Pinnacle Bank Soccer Complex ( Gretna Soccer Compl		 ●●●○○ Toss-up
48%		 2–1 1.66 1.31 Swing game

"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.

Standings

#TeamGPWDLGFGAGDPtsPPGFormSoSRun-inTop 4Exp. finish
1 VSA Rush 8710 252+23 222.75 WWWDW -0.66 +0.59 100% 1.0
2 Sporting Iowa Central 7403 1812+6 121.71 LWWLW -0.03 -0.43 98% 2.9
3 Sporting Nebraska FC 7403 1413+1 121.71 WLWLW +0.29 -0.90 95% 2.9
4 FC United Iowa 6303 2113+8 91.50 LWLLW -0.65 +0.76 59% 3.9
5 Gretna Elite Academy 7214 1512+3 71.00 WWDLL +0.24 -0.97 48% 4.3
6 Sporting Iowa Strikers 7007 243-41 00.00 LLLLL +0.87 +0.41 0% 6.0

Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.

How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (2.18 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.